097
FXUS63 KGLD 201127
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
527 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely
  across the area Monday afternoon.

- Rain chances over the region increase from next Wednesday
  through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Current observations show the upper trough just entering the
Texas Panhandle with an area of low pressure over North Central
Texas. With as far south as these features are, chances for rain
today are near zero as they will likely be too far to impact
the area other than the initial cloud cover that is currently
over the area and maybe a few small showers in the outer bands
of the low. With the system forecast to push off to the east
through the day, the moisture will also push off to the east and
allow skies to clear from west to east through the day.
Underneath sunny skies, temperatures are forecast to warm into
the 60s today.

Tonight, skies are forecast to remain clear with winds shifting
to out of the west at 10 mph. With the westerly winds, low are
likely to be in the mid to upper 30s.

Tomorrow, skies are forecast to start clear and allow
temperatures to warm into the 70s and low 80s. The 80s are more
likely east of Highway 83. During the day, an upper trough is
forecast to move into the Rockies. At the surface, an area of
low pressure is forecast to begin developing along the Front
Range and High Plains. This will increase the winds and allow
for some critical fire weather chances with dry air forecast to
be in place over the area. However, the low may be too broad
(weakening the pressure gradient and winds) and relative
humidity may not drop below 15% until late in the afternoon when
high temperatures are reached. As such, didn`t have the
confidence for a Red Flag Warning at this time.

Tomorrow evening and night, the upper trough axis is forecast
to swing over the Plains with the low pressure system moving
east over the area. Currently, this system isn`t forecast to do
much as precipitation looks to be unlikely or isolated due to an
overall lack of moisture in the area. Lows are forecast to be
in the 30s and 40s with the winds remaining around 10 mph as the
low passes, though they could be a few degrees cooler if the
low is broad or slows over the area and weakens the winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Tue-Fri: Long range guidance continues to indicate a
progressive (albeit complex) synoptic pattern roughly
characterized by broad cyclonic flow aloft.. with two distinct
jet branches, [1] a sinuous northern stream branch at mid-
latitudes and [2] a southern stream/subtropical branch extending
eastward across the southern Pacific and Mexico.. and episodic
northern/southern stream shortwaves. Multibranched (northern/
southern stream) jet interactions may play a significant role in
the evolution of episodic shortwaves throughout this period.
Below average confidence in forecast specifics. Broadly
speaking.. expect above average chances for precipitation and
above average to near average temperatures.

Sat-Sun: Long range guidance indicates a transition to a less
progressive, more amplified synoptic pattern this weekend.. a
pattern characterized by troughing over the western CONUS and
ridging over the eastern CONUS.. a pattern that would favor
active/unsettled weather over the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with
clear skies after the morning hours. Winds will generally
remain from the NNW through the daytime hours, then shift to be
more from the southwest shortly after sunset. This afternoon,
there may be a few gusts that reach 15-20 kts.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period.
There is a 10% chance of a passing shower or storm through 15Z
as a low pressure system moves just east of the area. Winds are
forecast to be fairly light (generally below 8 kts), but vary in
direction quite a bit. The current forecast is for the direction
to become more northerly through the day with speeds maybe
reaching 10 kts in the afternoon. After 00Z, winds are forecast
to shift from out of the north, to out of the southeast, and
then to out of the southwest through the night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK