519
FXUS63 KGLD 051108
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
508 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
  into next week; severe weather is possible as well.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms will move
across northeast Colorado overnight, but with limited
instability severe storms are not expected. After a lull in
precipitation chances this morning, convection will initiate by
around 21z this afternoon in southwestern areas (Flagler to
Cheyenne Wells to Tribune) as another shortwave trough tops the
ridge axis along with some weak convergence at the surface in
that area. A more organized cluster of storms will then move
off the Front Range this evening. Environment will be weakly
unstable, HREF mean for SBCAPE is less than 1000 j/kg, and deep
layer shear is 20-30 kts. Wind will be the main hazard,
especially with the evening cluster, but with the slight uptick
in shear may see a marginal hail risk as well with any organized
updrafts that may develop. The cluster should turn southeast
and move out of the area by 06z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will prevail in the lee of the
central Rockies.. on the western periphery of an upper level
ridge that extends northeastward from the Southern Plains to the
Central Mississippi River Valley and Upper Midwest. An upper
level (~300 mb) shortwave, located in northeast Colorado at 15
UTC this morning, will track NE-NNE through western Nebraska
(away from the NWS Goodland county warning area) this afternoon
and Dakotas (tonight). In the lower levels, a weak surface to
850 mb trough was present over eastern Colorado at 15 UTC..
mainly southeast Colorado (e.g. La Junta, Lamar, Springfield).
Further north, where low overcast and intermittent light showers
are influencing the evolution of low-level height/wind fields,
a modest meso-high was present.

An atypically moist airmass characterized by surface dewpoints
~65-70F, 850 mb dewpoints ~17-18C, near moist-adiabatic (5.5 to
6.0 C/km) mid-level (700-500 mb) lapse rates and precipitable
water values ~1.50" to 1.75" will prevail over the region today.
Without an elevated mixed layer, expect little in the way of
convective inhibition (cap) this afternoon. Weak, muddled
forcing and the presence of a fairly uniform/homogeneous airmass
(assisted by pervasive stratus).. lend little confidence with
regard to convective development, coverage and evolution in the
Goodland county warning area today-tonight, as one might surmise
from simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent
runs of convection allowing guidance. Weak low-level/mid-level
flow and modest (15-30 knot) effective deep layer shear suggest
that convective organization, if any, would likely be transient
in nature.. and that severe weather potential would likely be
confined to brief/localized wet downbursts. Observational and
environmental trends suggest that convection emanating from /
propagating downstream of the Colorado Front Range (into eastern
CO and adjacent KS border counties) late this afternoon and
evening (~5-10 pm MDT) may pose the greatest risk (relatively
speaking) for damaging winds. People attending outdoor
gatherings for Independence Day are urged to keep an eye on the
sky, and to consider that.. dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning
can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Sat-Sun: Guidance indicates relatively little change in the
`big picture` this weekend, i.e. the Tri-State area will remain
situated on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge
(anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico).. in WSW
flow aloft. Convective development, coverage and evolution in
the Goodland county warning area will likely be influenced
(directly or indirectly) by upstream and/or antecedent
convection on each day. Bottom line.. low confidence in
convective forecast specifics. Guidance does indicate that a
complex upper level low presently offshore the Pacific Northwest
will gradually dig southward along the Pacific Coast late this
weekend, tightening the height gradient (and increasing the
magnitude of WSW flow aloft) over the Desert Southwest,
4-Corners and portions of the central Rockies.. suggesting that
stronger deep layer shear may be present over the region on
Sunday.

Mon-Fri: Long range guidance indicates that ridging aloft will
prevail over the southern CONUS, and that the Tri-State area
will remain situated on the northern periphery of the ridge.. at
or near the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies.
Broadly speaking, expect near to above average temperatures and
a daily potential for late aft-eve convection (mainly in
climatologically favored locations downstream of the Colorado
Front Range).. depending on the orientation of the ridge and
proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms this evening have the best
chance of impacting KGLD with gusty winds and brief reductions
in visibility between 02-06z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024