Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
429
UXUS97 KGJT 081306
SRGGJT
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
706 AM MDT Wednesday, October 8, 2025
This forecast is for Wednesday, October 8, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 73.8 F/23.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1320 ft/min (6.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 17536 ft MSL (11927 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 81.0 F/27.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1230 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11068 ft MSL (5460 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 10/09..... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:17:27 / 18:45:35 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 28 min 8 sec (688 min 8 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:01:31 MDT... 44.68 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 10/08/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14044 ft MSL (8435 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14475 ft MSL (8866 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15260 ft MSL (9652 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.2
K index......................... +29.0
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.3 -85.5 255 52 27 4.1 2.3 M M M M M
45000 -58.7 -73.7 250 74 38 5.2 2.9 M M M M M
40000 -50.9 -59.6 250 93 48 4.5 2.5 M M M M M
38000 -47.8 -54.0 250 82 42 4.6 2.5 M M M M M
36000 -45.0 -49.0 250 72 37 4.5 2.5 M M M M M
34000 -41.7 -43.1 245 62 32 5.9 3.2 M M M M M
32000 -38.1 -36.6 245 53 27 5.9 3.2 M M M M M
30000 -33.6 -28.5 240 46 24 8.1 4.5 41.5 106.7 10.9 M M
29000 -31.1 -24.0 240 43 22 8.1 4.5 40.9 105.6 10.5 M M
28000 -28.7 -19.7 240 40 20 8.0 4.4 40.4 104.8 10.3 M M
27000 -26.4 -15.5 240 38 20 7.4 4.1 39.5 103.0 9.7 M M
26000 -24.2 -11.6 240 37 19 7.4 4.1 38.6 101.4 9.1 M M
25000 -22.0 -7.6 240 35 18 7.5 4.1 37.8 100.0 8.5 M M
24000 -19.9 -3.8 245 34 18 6.7 3.7 36.7 98.1 7.8 M M
23000 -17.9 -0.2 245 33 17 6.7 3.7 35.6 96.0 6.9 M M
22000 -15.9 3.4 245 33 17 7.0 3.9 34.5 94.2 6.1 M M
21000 -14.1 6.6 245 32 17 4.6 2.5 32.4 90.3 4.3 M M
20000 -12.8 9.0 240 32 16 4.7 2.6 30.6 87.1 2.7 M M
19500 -12.1 10.2 240 31 16 4.9 2.7 29.8 85.6 2.0 M M
19000 -11.3 11.7 240 30 15 6.7 3.7 29.1 84.4 1.4 M M
18500 -10.3 13.5 240 28 14 6.6 3.6 28.6 83.4 0.8 M M
18000 -9.4 15.1 235 25 13 7.2 4.0 28.1 82.5 0.3 M M
17500 -8.3 17.1 235 24 12 7.5 4.1 27.7 81.8 -0.1 1110 5.6
17000 -7.2 19.0 230 22 11 7.7 4.3 27.3 81.1 -0.5 1063 5.4
16500 -6.0 21.2 230 21 11 8.9 4.9 27.1 80.7 -0.7 1012 5.1
16000 -4.8 23.4 230 20 10 8.9 4.9 26.9 80.4 -0.9 959 4.9
15500 -3.5 25.7 225 19 10 8.3 4.6 26.7 80.1 -1.2 907 4.6
15000 -2.3 27.9 230 19 10 8.3 4.6 26.5 79.7 -1.4 856 4.3
14500 -1.1 30.0 230 19 10 8.5 4.7 26.3 79.3 -1.7 805 4.1
14000 0.2 32.4 230 19 10 8.6 4.7 26.1 78.9 -1.9 753 3.8
13500 1.4 34.5 230 18 10 8.8 4.8 25.9 78.6 -2.1 700 3.6
13000 2.7 36.9 230 18 10 9.0 4.9 25.8 78.4 -2.3 646 3.3
12500 4.0 39.2 225 18 10 8.9 4.9 25.6 78.2 -2.4 592 3.0
12000 5.3 41.5 225 19 10 8.8 4.8 25.5 77.9 -2.6 538 2.7
11500 6.6 43.9 220 19 10 8.6 4.7 25.3 77.6 -2.8 484 2.5
11000 7.9 46.2 220 19 10 8.2 4.5 25.1 77.2 -3.0 433 2.2
10500 9.1 48.4 215 19 10 8.6 4.7 24.9 76.8 -3.3 382 1.9
10250 9.7 49.5 215 19 10 8.3 4.6 24.8 76.6 -3.4 356 1.8
10000 10.3 50.5 210 19 10 7.5 4.1 24.6 76.3 -3.6 331 1.7
9750 10.8 51.4 210 19 10 8.1 4.4 24.5 76.0 -3.7 307 1.6
9500 11.4 52.5 205 19 10 6.7 3.7 24.3 75.8 -3.9 282 1.4
9250 11.8 53.2 205 18 10 6.1 3.3 24.0 75.2 -4.2 262 1.3
9000 12.3 54.1 205 18 9 6.8 3.8 23.8 74.8 -4.4 239 1.2
8750 12.8 55.0 200 17 9 7.0 3.9 23.5 74.4 -4.7 217 1.1
8500 13.3 55.9 195 17 9 5.5 3.0 23.3 74.0 -4.9 195 1.0
8250 13.7 56.7 195 17 9 4.3 2.4 22.9 73.2 -5.3 177 0.9
8000 14.0 57.2 190 16 8 5.5 3.0 22.5 72.6 -5.7 159 0.8
7750 14.4 57.9 185 15 8 5.4 3.0 22.2 72.0 -6.0 139 0.7
7500 14.8 58.6 180 14 7 3.6 2.0 21.8 71.3 -6.4 121 0.6
7250 15.0 59.0 170 14 7 2.3 1.3 21.3 70.3 -7.0 107 0.5
7000 15.2 59.4 165 13 7 3.3 1.8 20.8 69.4 -7.5 93 0.5
6750 15.5 59.9 155 12 6 2.3 1.3 20.3 68.5 -8.0 78 0.4
6500 15.6 60.1 150 11 6 0.1 0.1 19.6 67.3 -8.6 68 0.3
6250 15.6 60.1 145 9 5 0.1 0.1 18.9 65.9 -9.4 60 0.3
6000 15.6 60.1 135 8 4 -0.6 -0.3 18.1 64.6 -10.1 52 0.3
5750 15.3 59.5 120 7 4 -10.8 -5.9 17.1 62.7 -11.2 55 0.3
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/08/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/08/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.0 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.0
CINH... -0.0 K Index... -1.3 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... +2.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.2 -83.6 265 44 22 3.6 2.0 | -64.7 -84.5 260 47 24 3.5 1.9
45000 -58.0 -72.4 260 57 29 5.7 3.1 | -58.5 -73.3 260 63 32 6.0 3.3
40000 -49.6 -57.3 265 60 31 4.1 2.2 | -49.6 -57.3 260 61 31 4.2 2.3
38000 -47.4 -53.3 260 59 30 3.7 2.0 | -47.2 -53.0 260 60 31 4.1 2.2
36000 -44.9 -48.8 260 58 30 3.7 2.0 | -44.5 -48.1 265 58 30 4.1 2.2
34000 -42.7 -44.9 260 51 26 3.6 2.0 | -42.1 -43.8 260 52 27 4.0 2.2
32000 -40.5 -40.9 260 42 21 3.6 2.0 | -39.7 -39.5 255 43 22 4.0 2.2
30000 -36.4 -33.5 255 37 19 8.6 4.7 | -35.8 -32.4 250 39 20 7.7 4.2
29000 -33.8 -28.8 260 36 19 8.6 4.7 | -33.5 -28.3 250 38 20 7.7 4.2
28000 -31.2 -24.2 260 35 18 8.8 4.8 | -31.2 -24.2 250 38 19 7.7 4.2
27000 -28.8 -19.8 260 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -28.8 -19.8 245 36 19 8.2 4.5
26000 -26.5 -15.7 260 34 18 7.7 4.2 | -26.3 -15.3 245 35 18 8.2 4.5
25000 -24.2 -11.6 260 34 17 7.7 4.2 | -23.8 -10.8 245 33 17 8.2 4.5
24000 -21.9 -7.4 255 33 17 7.7 4.2 | -21.4 -6.5 240 32 16 8.0 4.4
23000 -19.6 -3.3 255 33 17 7.7 4.2 | -18.4 -1.1 240 30 16 8.0 4.4
22000 -16.7 1.9 255 32 17 7.5 4.1 | -16.0 3.2 240 29 15 7.5 4.1
21000 -14.8 5.4 250 31 16 6.3 3.5 | -14.2 6.4 240 29 15 5.7 3.1
20000 -12.9 8.8 250 30 16 6.3 3.5 | -12.5 9.5 240 28 15 5.7 3.1
19500 -12.0 10.4 250 30 15 6.3 3.5 | -11.7 10.9 240 28 14 5.7 3.1
19000 -11.0 12.2 250 30 15 6.2 3.4 | -10.8 12.6 240 28 14 5.6 3.1
18500 -10.1 13.8 250 29 15 6.3 3.4 | -10.0 14.0 240 29 15 5.6 3.1
18000 -9.2 15.4 245 29 15 6.4 3.5 | -9.2 15.4 240 29 15 6.2 3.4
17500 -8.2 17.2 245 29 15 6.7 3.7 | -8.2 17.2 240 30 15 7.0 3.8
17000 -7.2 19.0 245 29 15 6.7 3.7 | -7.1 19.2 240 31 16 6.9 3.8
16500 -6.1 21.0 245 29 15 7.7 4.2 | -6.0 21.2 240 31 16 8.1 4.4
16000 -5.0 23.0 245 29 15 7.6 4.2 | -4.8 23.4 240 31 16 8.0 4.4
15500 -3.9 25.0 240 29 15 7.6 4.2 | -3.7 25.3 240 32 16 8.0 4.4
15000 -2.8 27.0 240 29 15 7.6 4.2 | -2.5 27.5 240 31 16 8.0 4.4
14500 -1.7 28.9 240 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -1.3 29.7 240 31 16 7.9 4.3
14000 -0.6 30.9 235 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -0.2 31.6 235 30 16 7.7 4.2
13500 0.5 32.9 235 28 14 7.6 4.2 | 1.0 33.8 235 29 15 7.8 4.3
13000 1.6 34.9 235 27 14 8.0 4.4 | 2.1 35.8 230 28 14 7.9 4.3
12500 2.8 37.0 230 26 13 8.0 4.4 | 3.2 37.8 230 26 14 7.9 4.4
12000 4.0 39.2 230 24 12 8.4 4.6 | 4.4 39.9 225 25 13 8.2 4.5
11500 5.2 41.4 225 23 12 8.4 4.6 | 5.5 41.9 225 23 12 8.2 4.5
11000 6.4 43.5 225 21 11 8.1 4.4 | 6.7 44.1 225 22 11 8.2 4.5
10500 7.6 45.7 220 20 10 7.9 4.3 | 7.9 46.2 220 21 11 7.8 4.3
10250 8.1 46.6 220 19 10 5.6 3.1 | 8.5 47.3 220 20 10 7.0 3.8
10000 8.5 47.3 220 18 10 6.8 3.7 | 9.0 48.2 220 19 10 7.9 4.3
9750 9.1 48.4 220 18 9 9.0 5.0 | 9.6 49.3 220 18 9 8.6 4.7
9500 9.7 49.5 215 18 9 8.3 4.5 | 10.2 50.4 215 18 9 8.4 4.6
9250 10.3 50.5 215 17 9 8.0 4.4 | 10.8 51.4 215 17 9 8.4 4.6
9000 10.9 51.6 215 17 9 6.0 3.3 | 11.4 52.5 215 15 8 7.6 4.2
8750 11.3 52.3 210 16 8 4.8 2.6 | 11.9 53.4 215 15 8 7.2 4.0
8500 12.0 53.6 200 15 8 5.1 2.8 | 12.9 55.2 210 14 7 6.1 3.3
8250 12.4 54.3 200 15 8 4.7 2.6 | 13.4 56.1 205 12 6 6.6 3.6
8000 12.7 54.9 195 15 7 3.5 1.9 | 13.9 57.0 205 11 6 8.1 4.4
7750 12.9 55.2 185 13 7 2.9 1.6 | 14.6 58.3 200 10 5 8.0 4.4
7500 13.1 55.6 180 13 7 2.8 1.5 | 15.1 59.2 200 10 5 7.4 4.1
7250 13.3 55.9 175 13 7 2.8 1.5 | 15.7 60.3 200 9 4 7.8 4.3
7000 13.5 56.3 165 13 6 2.9 1.6 | 16.4 61.5 200 8 4 10.5 5.8
6750 13.7 56.7 160 10 5 1.7 0.9 | 17.2 63.0 200 8 4 11.3 6.2
6500 13.8 56.8 155 10 5 0.5 0.3 | 18.0 64.4 195 7 4 10.6 5.8
6250 13.9 57.0 150 9 5 1.5 0.8 | 18.8 65.8 195 7 3 9.6 5.3
6000 14.0 57.2 140 8 4 0.5 0.3 | 19.6 67.3 195 6 3 12.4 6.8
5750 13.8 56.8 125 5 3 -4.8 -2.7 | 20.9 69.6 195 6 3 22.9 12.5
5500 13.3 55.9 095 4 2 -8.2 -4.5 | 22.5 72.5 195 4 2 16.8 9.2
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/08/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/08/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +12.4 LI... +0.3 | CAPE... +3.8 LI... +0.3
CINH... -17.7 K Index... +19.8 | CINH... -25.1 K Index... +19.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.1 -85.2 260 47 24 3.3 1.8 | -65.5 -85.9 255 44 23 3.3 1.8
45000 -58.9 -74.0 265 66 34 6.4 3.5 | -59.2 -74.6 260 61 31 6.6 3.6
40000 -49.5 -57.1 260 74 38 3.9 2.1 | -49.5 -57.1 260 81 41 3.3 1.8
38000 -47.1 -52.8 265 68 35 3.9 2.1 | -47.0 -52.6 255 70 36 3.6 2.0
36000 -44.5 -48.1 265 61 32 3.9 2.2 | -44.9 -48.8 255 62 32 3.6 2.0
34000 -41.4 -42.5 265 54 28 5.4 3.0 | -41.5 -42.7 255 54 28 6.4 3.5
32000 -38.2 -36.8 265 46 24 5.4 3.0 | -37.6 -35.7 260 48 25 6.4 3.5
30000 -34.3 -29.7 260 41 21 6.9 3.8 | -33.5 -28.3 260 41 21 7.2 3.9
29000 -32.3 -26.1 255 40 20 6.9 3.8 | -31.3 -24.3 260 37 19 7.2 3.9
28000 -30.2 -22.4 250 38 20 6.9 3.8 | -29.2 -20.6 260 33 17 7.2 3.9
27000 -27.8 -18.0 250 37 19 8.3 4.5 | -26.9 -16.4 260 32 16 7.9 4.3
26000 -25.3 -13.5 245 36 19 8.2 4.5 | -24.5 -12.1 260 32 16 7.9 4.3
25000 -22.9 -9.2 245 35 18 8.3 4.5 | -22.1 -7.8 260 31 16 7.9 4.3
24000 -20.7 -5.3 240 33 17 6.6 3.6 | -20.1 -4.2 255 31 16 6.2 3.4
23000 -18.2 -0.8 235 31 16 6.6 3.6 | -17.7 0.1 250 31 16 6.2 3.4
22000 -16.2 2.8 230 30 15 6.3 3.5 | -15.9 3.4 250 31 16 5.9 3.2
21000 -14.6 5.7 230 31 16 5.2 2.9 | -14.5 5.9 245 32 16 4.6 2.5
20000 -13.1 8.4 235 32 16 5.3 2.9 | -13.1 8.4 240 32 17 4.7 2.6
19500 -12.3 9.9 235 32 17 5.2 2.9 | -12.4 9.7 240 33 17 4.5 2.5
19000 -11.5 11.3 235 33 17 6.1 3.3 | -11.6 11.1 240 33 17 7.0 3.8
18500 -10.6 12.9 235 34 17 6.1 3.4 | -10.6 12.9 240 33 17 7.0 3.8
18000 -9.8 14.4 235 34 18 6.8 3.7 | -9.6 14.7 235 33 17 7.3 4.0
17500 -8.7 16.3 235 34 18 7.7 4.2 | -8.5 16.7 235 32 16 7.6 4.2
17000 -7.6 18.3 235 34 17 7.8 4.3 | -7.4 18.7 235 31 16 7.6 4.2
16500 -6.4 20.5 235 33 17 8.8 4.8 | -6.2 20.8 230 30 15 8.7 4.8
16000 -5.1 22.8 235 32 16 8.8 4.8 | -5.0 23.0 230 28 14 8.6 4.7
15500 -3.9 25.0 230 31 16 8.7 4.8 | -3.8 25.2 230 27 14 8.9 4.9
15000 -2.6 27.3 230 29 15 8.7 4.8 | -2.4 27.7 225 25 13 9.0 5.0
14500 -1.4 29.5 230 28 15 8.7 4.8 | -1.1 30.0 225 24 12 9.1 5.0
14000 -0.1 31.8 230 27 14 8.7 4.8 | 0.2 32.4 225 23 12 9.2 5.1
13500 1.2 34.2 225 25 13 8.8 4.8 | 1.6 34.9 220 22 12 9.3 5.1
13000 2.5 36.5 225 24 12 9.3 5.1 | 3.0 37.4 220 21 11 9.4 5.2
12500 3.9 39.0 225 23 12 9.2 5.1 | 4.4 39.9 220 21 11 9.4 5.2
12000 5.2 41.4 220 22 11 9.1 5.0 | 5.8 42.4 215 20 10 9.1 5.0
11500 6.6 43.9 220 20 11 9.1 5.0 | 7.1 44.8 215 19 10 9.1 5.0
11000 7.9 46.2 220 19 10 8.7 4.8 | 8.5 47.3 215 18 9 8.9 4.9
10500 9.3 48.7 220 18 9 7.2 4.0 | 9.8 49.6 220 17 9 7.7 4.2
10250 9.7 49.5 220 16 8 7.3 4.0 | 10.3 50.5 215 16 8 7.6 4.1
10000 10.4 50.7 220 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 11.0 51.8 220 15 8 9.4 5.1
9750 11.1 52.0 220 15 8 9.4 5.2 | 11.7 53.1 220 15 8 9.2 5.0
9500 11.8 53.2 220 15 8 9.4 5.2 | 12.3 54.1 220 14 7 9.3 5.1
9250 12.5 54.5 220 14 7 8.7 4.7 | 13.0 55.4 225 14 7 9.2 5.0
9000 13.1 55.6 225 12 6 8.3 4.6 | 13.7 56.7 225 13 6 8.3 4.6
8750 13.7 56.7 225 12 6 8.6 4.7 | 14.9 58.8 230 11 6 7.9 4.3
8500 15.0 59.0 225 10 5 7.6 4.2 | 15.4 59.7 235 10 5 7.1 3.9
8250 15.6 60.1 230 9 5 8.6 4.7 | 15.9 60.6 235 10 5 7.3 4.0
8000 16.3 61.3 230 9 4 10.8 5.9 | 16.5 61.7 240 9 4 8.2 4.5
7750 17.1 62.8 230 9 5 9.8 5.4 | 17.1 62.8 245 8 4 7.8 4.3
7500 17.8 64.0 235 8 4 8.1 4.4 | 17.7 63.9 255 7 4 7.0 3.8
7250 18.4 65.1 240 8 4 8.5 4.7 | 18.2 64.8 260 7 4 7.2 4.0
7000 19.1 66.4 245 7 4 11.3 6.2 | 18.8 65.8 270 7 4 9.5 5.2
6750 20.0 68.0 240 8 4 11.5 6.3 | 19.6 67.3 270 6 3 9.9 5.5
6500 20.8 69.4 245 7 4 10.4 5.7 | 20.3 68.5 280 6 3 8.9 4.9
6250 21.6 70.9 250 7 3 9.9 5.4 | 21.0 69.8 290 6 3 9.4 5.1
6000 22.3 72.1 255 6 3 12.0 6.6 | 21.6 70.9 295 6 3 7.5 4.1
5750 23.5 74.3 250 6 3 20.9 11.5 | 22.0 71.6 290 5 2 4.1 2.3
5500 25.2 77.4 265 6 3 21.8 12.0 | 22.5 72.5 305 4 2 10.9 6.0
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613