640
FNUS75 KGJT 152317
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Swiss Roll Wildfire...USDA
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
517 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on September 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Potentially record-breaking moisture is expected to arrive over
the next 48 hours. Wednesday afternoon, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to occur near the spot location.
Overnight into Thursday morning, rainfall becomes steadier, though
periods of heavier rain may still occur. This could prompt flash
flooding concerns near and at the spot location, so the spot
location is included in a Flood Watch from noon Wednesday through
all of Thursday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    through the night.
CWR.................40 percent.
Min temperature.....46-51.
Max humidity........76-81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5-10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4000-36000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers likely
                    through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning and likely in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................75 percent.
Max temperature.....54-59.
Min humidity........54-59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5-10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17000-29000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 mph.
Chance of thunder...50 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers through
                    the night. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    through the night.
CWR.................>95 percent.
Min temperature.....45-50.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5-10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000-14000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers through
                    the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning and likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................>95 percent.
Max temperature.....50-55.
Min humidity........63-68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts up to 18 mph
                    possible through the day. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19000-20000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 mph.
Chance of thunder...45 percent.

$$
Forecaster...Braeden Winters
Requested by...Cameron Castle
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2621670.8/GJT
.DELDT 09/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thadmckain@gmail.com,ccastle@elkcreekfire.org