159
FNUS75 KGJT 212341
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Crosho Fire...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
541 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Increasing moisture and cloud cover will suppress high
temperatures 5 degrees or more Friday. This will continue
Saturday. The increase in moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms on terrain with wetting rains unlikely on Friday
afternoon, but more likely Friday night and Saturday. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected to develop. Gusty
outflows around decaying showers and storms will be a threat
throughout this period.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 mph shifting to the northwest in
                    the afternoon 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to very good in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL increasing to 9700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15-20 mph.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....48-53.
Max humidity........64-69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5-10 mph shifting to the southeast
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good decreasing to poor (10000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL decreasing to 900 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....South 8-12 mph.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........18-23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5-10 mph shifting to the northwest
                    in the afternoon 10-15 mph gusts to 20 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15-20 mph.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster...Lucas Boyer
Requested by...Ron Steffens
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2520090.4/GJT
.DELDT 08/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ron_steffens@firenet.gov