886
FNUS75 KGJT 170021
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Pion Fire...Roaring Fork Fire Rescue
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
621 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and storms will remain scattered around the
area with low chance of wetting rain as the lower levels remain
dry. The main concern is gusty outflow winds which could gust 40
to 50 mph near any showers or storms. The flow shifts to a more
southerly direction Thursday into the latter half of the week,
which will provide for an uptick in moisture and better coverage
of showers and storms with gusty outflow winds of 40 to 50 mph
the main concern as well as lightning. Localized moderate to heavy
rainfall is also more probable Friday and Saturday given the
increase in moisture.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers and dry thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Areas of smoke overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....52-57.
Max humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in
                    the early evening, shifting to the east
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good decreasing to poor (11000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL decreasing to 1600 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 mph shifting to the southeast 10
                    mph overnight.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Areas of smoke
                    through the day. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....82-87.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 mph shifting to the west 8 to
                    12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 11500 ft AGL by peak heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas
                    of smoke overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....54-59.
Max humidity........60-65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    southeast overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor (11000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL decreasing to 1600 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.

$$
Forecaster...Matt Aleksa
Requested by...Nick Wall
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518142.0/GJT
.DELDT 07/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nwall@roaringforkfire.org