Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Versions:
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FGUS75 KGJT 131606
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-201615-
Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
906 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH ISSUANCE NUMBER 1...
...Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)...
The Grand Junction HSA falls almost entirely within the Upper
Colorado River Basin, and provides a population of over 40 million
people with water across the southwestern US. The area
encompasses seven basins including; the Upper Green River Basin
and the Duchesne River Basin in eastern Utah, and the Yampa and
White River Basins, Upper Colorado River Mainstem, Gunnison River
Basin, Dolores and San Miguel River Basins, and the Upper San Juan
River Basin in western Colorado. Each river and their tributaries
feed the Colorado River above Lake Powell, and are primarily fed
by snowpack accumulation (typically) from November - April. As the
snow melts in the spring, the Upper Colorado River Basin begins
to fill lakes, rivers, streams, reservoirs and trans-basin
diversions from Denver to Los Angeles. Thus, seasonal water supply
and resource outlooks across the Grand Junction HSA are crucial
to water management during the late winter and early spring, in
order to support various sectors including hydropower, agriculture,
recreation, and municipal uses that in turn support the needs of
a vast population.
...Water Supply Outlooks Summary/Key Messages...
The potential for spring flooding due to snowmelt is low at this
time, and season water supply volumes remain well below to near
normal for the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Water supply guidance as a percentage of average (as of February
1st) for the April through July runoff period are listed below:
Yampa/White 75-95% Upper CO Mainstem 80-110%
Gunnison 50-90% Dolores 40-75%
San Juan 65-85% Upper Green 65-80%
Duchesne 75-105%
Forecast volumes, attm, are expected to run blow to well below
normal due to lack of precipitation and snowpack accumulated thus
far, Oct - Jan.
NOTE: In normal years, additional snowpack can accumulate in the
mountains through the first half of April. However, it`s worth
noting that precipitation, strong winds and blowing dust, a cold
spring or unseasonably warm spring during the snowmelt season can
greatly affect total runoff volume and timing of peak flow.
...Summary of Water Year Conditions...
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Observed Precipitation
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An active pattern late November brought a strong start to the
water year, however, it`s momentum stalled through the month of
December. Many basins in the Upper Colorado Watershed started out
the season with above normal precipitation and then plateaued
through the end of the calendar year. January, on average, was a
colder than normal month but precipitation was not widely spread.
More northerly storm tracks dominated the weather pattern, which
favored terrain along the Colorado Headwaters, Yampa and Upper
Green River basins. The rest of the Upper Colorado River Basin
remained relatively dry, with areas across west and southwest
Colorado observing one of their driest January`s on record. As a
result, monthly and water year precipitation totals dropped below
to well below average. The lack of precipitation was most harshly
observed across the San Juan and Dolores basins, where monthly
precip totals dwindled to less than 30 percent of average. Despite
the northerly systems, basins across the Upper Colorado all
dropped below normal for the water year by February 1st.
Western Colorado and eastern Utah Water Year Precipitation as of
February 1st:
Yampa/White 95% Upper CO Mainstem 95%
Gunnison 90% Dolores/San Miguel 85%
San Juan 70% Duchesne 80%
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Observed Snowpack
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Snowpack trends mirrored the ebb and flow of systems across the
Upper Colorado. A strong start to the snowpack late November
plateaued through December, which meant SWE values dipped below
normal thresholds by the end of the year. As mentioned above,
precipitation favoring the northern basins across the Upper
Colorado and a warm AR arriving in late January allowed these
regions to maintain or slowly recover their snowpack. Meanwhile,
ranges to the south continued to plummet below average. In
addition, the late January AR`s were accompanied by anomalous warm
weather. Terrain outside of the AR`s plume of moisture
experienced nearly a week of record breaking high temperatures,
which proceeded to melt existing snow and deteriorate snowpack
conditions leading into February.
Western Colorado and eastern Utah Average SWE by February 1st:
Yampa/White 95% Upper CO Mainstem 110%
Gunnison 105% San Miguel/Dolores 70%
San Juan 55% Duchesne 75%
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Soil Moisture
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A relatively active monsoon in 2024 did support an improvement in
soil conditions, in comparison to last year. More notably, soil
conditions across the upper San Juan, Dolores, San Miguel and
Gunnison basins showed up to a 50 percent average increase from
Fall of 2023. Elsewhere, near normal to slightly below normal soil
moisture condition`s were observed for the Colorado Headwaters
and the Yampa/White Basins.
Antecedent soil moisture can impact the efficiency of early
spring runoff. Thus, water supply forecasts for basins with above
average soil moisture tend to experience more efficient runoff
from rainfall and snowmelt, while basins with below average
antecedent conditions show less efficient runoff until soil
saturation is reached.
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STATUS of RESERVOIR STORAGE FOR WFO Grand Junction Reservoirs
PERIOD ENDING: January 31, 2025
Figures are in 1000 Acre Feet
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C U R R E N T Y R L A S T Y R 1991-2020
EOM % of % of EOM % of JAN 31 Usable
Storage Average Capacity Storage Average Avg Storage Capacity
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GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 516.6| 100| 62|| 568.2| 110|| 515.2| 830.0|
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GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 8.0| 110| 46|| 9.0| 123|| 7.3| 17.5|
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CRAWFORD RESERVOIR | 5.2| 90| 37|| 6.3| 109|| 5.8| 14.0|
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FRUITGROWERS DAM - A | 1.7| 55| 48|| 1.6| 53|| 3.1| 4.5|
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FLORIDA - LEMON RESER| 22.7| 125| 57|| 15.7| 87|| 18.1| 39.8|
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DOLORES - MCPHEE RESE| 208.3| 81| 55|| 291.9| 114|| 256.3| 381.1|
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GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 111.0| 101| 92|| 111.2| 101|| 109.9| 117.0|
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MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 1.5| 62| 10|| 1.6| 68|| 2.6| 16.7|
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UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 69.4| 103| 84|| 64.5| 96|| 67.5| 83.0|
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RIFLE CK - RIFLE GAP | 8.2| M| 67|| 12.5| 92|| M| 12.2|
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FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 74.9| 106| 73|| 75.9| 107|| 70.8| 102.0|
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CIMARRON - SILVERJACK| 0.6| 13| 4|| 0.5| 9|| 5.1| 12.8|
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TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 69.7| 102| 66|| 72.2| 106|| 68.1| 106.2|
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LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 83.7| 122| 66|| 63.8| 93|| 68.5| 125.4|
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GREEN - FLAMING GORGE| 3088.3| 100| 82|| 3131.4| 102|| 3081.2| 3749.0|
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COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 8275.4| 57| 36|| 8138.1| 56|| 14430.3| 23314.0|
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MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
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The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in early
March and an updated product will be issued at that time.
LOCATION FLOOD FCST FORECAST FLOWS
FLOW DATE 90% 75% 50% 25% 10%
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YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 5923 2025-03-01
ELK - MILNER, NR 5916 2025-03-01
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR 21200 2025-03-01
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR 15271 2025-03-01
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK 20744 2025-03-01
WHITE - MEEKER, NR 8906 2025-03-01
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR 2200 2025-03-01
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE 2000 2025-03-01
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC 300 2025-03-01
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO 6000 2025-03-01
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR 17000 2025-03-01
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A 3200 2025-03-01
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S 13000 2025-03-01
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR 26000 2025-03-01
EAST - ALMONT 3100 2025-03-01
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N 11000 2025-03-01
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE 1330 2025-03-01
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION 21000 2025-03-01
DOLORES - RICO, BLO 1750 2025-03-01
DOLORES - DOLORES 6700 2025-03-01
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE, -999 2025-03-01
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI 46000 2025-03-01
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS 4600 2025-03-01
ANIMAS - DURANGO 10600 2025-03-01
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON 9000 2025-03-01
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR 810 2025-03-01
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CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
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The current ENSO phase remains as a weak La Nina, with a 59
percent chance cool SSTs persist through April. In a typical La
Nina season, eastern Utah and western Colorado may see near to
slightly above normal precipitation across the northern mountain
ranges, while terrain closer to the Four Corners region fall below
normal. While that signal is slightly muted during weak La Nina
conditions, the Climate Prediction Center still favors these
trends to dominate the monthly to seasonal outlooks for the
remainder of the winter. Seasonal outlooks shifting from spring
through summer months suggest an expansion of warmer and drier
than normal conditions across the central Rockies and into the
Great Basin. These analyses were derived from the current ENSO
outlook as well as the continuation of a negative PDO signature,
which would favor dry, warm and potentially windy conditions
persisting through spring runoff and into summer months.
On a shorter-scale timeframe, CPC outlooks illustrate likely
above normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and over
the Northern Rockies thanks to another potential AR impacting the
northwestern CONUS over the next 6 to 10 Days. Drier than normal
conditions are likely over southern California and across the
Desert Southwest due to a bubble of high pressure stirring the
plume of moisture away from the region by mid February.
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Additional information is available at weather.gov/gjt.
For detailed flow forecasts visit www.cbrfc.noaa.gov.
Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service...the Colorado
Basin River Forecast Center...and the Climate Prediction Center were
used to create this product.
$$