247
FXUS65 KGJT 070556
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1156 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect showers and thunderstorms through Monday morning.
  Isolated stronger storms may be capable of producing flash
  flooding.

- Warmer and drier conditions return Tuesday onward, though a
  chance for isolated mountain showers remains each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Sandwiched between a trough in the Pacific Northwest and a
ridge over the Southern Plains, southwesterly flow is dominant
aloft over the Desert Southwest. This flow is advecting in a
rich plume of tropical Pacific moisture, with PWATs near an inch
across the region. The one caveat to this deep moisture are the
lingering dry surface layers. This evening`s 00z KGJT sounding
shows a pronounced inverted-V profile, with the column saturated
aloft but quite dry near the surface. As a result, most
locations have seen virga showers and strong, gusty winds this
evening, rather than heavy rainfall. Areas in northeast Utah
where showers have been training for the last 6 hours have
finally seen precipitation make it to the surface, but totals
have been limited to just a few hundredths. With plenty of
moisture but a lack of instability, this type of activity will
continue through the night, with gusty winds and light rainfall
through daybreak tomorrow.

Drier air moves in after daybreak, bringing an end to any
lingering showers and allowing skies to clear, setting the stage
for a drier week ahead. The Pacific Northwest trough tracks
along the Canadian border over the coming days, while high
pressure builds westward into the Desert Southwest, pushing a
ridge up along the West Coast. Drier zonal flow will be in
control over eastern Utah and western Colorado by midweek,
allowing temperatures to warm up a few degrees, running around 5
degrees above normal. Enough surface moisture will linger to
fuel a few isolated showers or thunderstorms over the higher
terrain Monday and Tuesday, but chances dwindle by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light showers are possible across the region tonight as an
influx of moisture moves in from the south. Showers will shift
east through the night with clearing by 12z. Gusty southwest
winds of 20-30 knots will impact TAF sites Monday afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail and ceilings will remain above
breakpoints.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT