937
FXUS65 KGJT 142348
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
548 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler temperatures are expected today, along with
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

- Afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast
  through the end of the week and into the weekend, favoring the
  higher terrain.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through Saturday, before the
  next system brings a return of cooler, below normal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

The cold front has arrived and it is located over far western
Colorado and southeast Utah. This front will gradually push eastward
today and eventually clear the area tonight. The colder air aloft is
already in place, reflected in high temperatures that will end up 10-
20 degrees colder than yesterday. Showers and storms have already
developed along this front and will continue as the trough moves
overhead this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds of 30-40 mph will
be possible with the showers and storms. Snow levels will support
accumulating snow at elevations above 9K feet, with amounts of 1-3
inches expected over the southern and central mountains and 2-4
inches over the northern mountains especially tonight. Clouds and
showers will linger longest over the northern and central mountains,
while eastern Utah and southwest Colorado sees skies clear this
evening into the overnight. With clear skies and light winds
expected, conditions are right for strong radiational cooling. The
southwest Colorado valleys, where the growing season is already well
underway, are expected to drop below 32F for several hours tonight
into tomorrow morning so a Freeze Warnings remains in effect.

As the core of this trough tracks east of the Divide tonight,
temperatures will moderate a bit tomorrow. Highs will climb about 5
degrees above those expected today, though still around 5 degrees
below normal. Another wave will swing through tomorrow afternoon,
kicking off another round of showers and thunderstorms across the
area. The higher terrain will once again be most favored, with minor
snow accumulations of a trace to 2 inches above 9K feet. Lower
elevations, including some valleys, will see light rain showers and
maybe a thunderstorm or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

A shortwave ridge will move across the area by Friday morning with
the trailing edge of the upper level trough skirting across the
northern mountains. We will still see some lingering showers across
the northern mountains as some moisture hangs around but much of the
area should see temperatures warming back to near or slightly above
normal levels by Saturday. The next low pressure trough will be
diving into the Great Basin from the PacNW with southwest flow
increasing across the area on Saturday afternoon leading to a breezy
day as H7 winds increase to around 30 kts. The timing of trough
passage looks to be centered around Sunday and Monday despite some
model discrepancies in terms of timing, strength and exact location
of this system. Despite model differences, the models do agree that
this system will bring better moisture and perhaps more widespread
precipitation than this current system. Onset could start as early
as Saturday evening but better potential for showers and wetting
precipitation exists Sunday and Monday with showers lingering
through at least Tuesday. Temperatures will go from slightly above
normal by Saturday and drop to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal
by Monday and Tuesday.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

A line of showers is accompanying the cold front in a line
southeast of KCNY to KHDN with a few showers behind it. Some
embedded thunderstorms are also occurring along the front.
Expect gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph with the passage of this
front this afternoon into the early evening with primarily VFR
conditions, although brief MVFR is possible during showers with
lower CIGS. Showers should clear out after sunset with winds
subsiding and skies becoming partly to mostly clear, except
across the north where some showers may linger.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

A cold front traversing the region will produce gusty outflow
winds and TEMPO breakpoint ceiling/visibility conditions this
evening. Showers have been capable of gusts near 50 mph in
isolated instances. Conditions improve after sunset, with
residual cloud cover remaining on the terrain, but winds
subsiding to their terrain influenced regimes. Unsettled weather
continues on Thursday, with additional afternoon showers likely
on most terrain features. Gusty outflows and reduced visibility
are likely, as a few snow showers fall in the mountains.
Ceilings will likely reach breakpoints too, as showers increase
later in the afternoon Thursday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     COZ021>023.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT