934
FXUS65 KGJT 111126
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
526 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions remain in place through Wednesday.

- Precipitation returns to the forecast Thursday and Friday as
  the next Atmospheric River sets up. Impactful mountain
  snowfall greater than 6" is very likely (>75% chance).

- Gusty afternoon winds will be a common occurrence throughout
  the seven-day forecast beginning Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Satellite imagery early this morning shows a low pressure
system spinning of the coast of southern California. Locally, an
influx of southwesterly flow from this system will lead to
increasing cloud cover today. As the low moves inland tonight
into tomorrow it is progged to track across southern New Mexico
and Arizona limiting the opportunity for precipitation chances
in our forecast area to a stray shower or two in southwest
Colorado (<15% chance). Otherwise, expect unseasonably warm
conditions with high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal for
the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

On Thursday a polar jet will nose over the Four Corners driven
by a trough that will be progressing eastward over the Great
Basin. The prefrontal regime will promote the mix down of these
stronger winds to the surface. Gusts look to reach 30 mph for
most locations with higher speeds (+50 mph) possible especially
in the higher terrain. Moisture begins to advect in during the
day, which will result in scattered showers. Instability may be
sufficient to support thunderstorms mainly across the southwest
half of the forecast area in the afternoon. It is probable that
any storms that do develop have the likelihood to enhance the
wind gusts. The trough and cold front moves into the area
Thursday night, which is when large-scale lift is maximized.
Therefore showers become more widespread and rates increase.
Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains during
this frontal passage. Snow levels initially around 7 kft drop to
5 kft behind the front causing snow to reach some of the
valleys. The system moves through rather quickly as it looks to
clear the Divide Friday morning. In it`s wake steep lapse rates
and lingering moisture should support a continuation beginning
Wednesday.of showers through out the afternoon and evening.
Winds also remain elevated and temperatures drop a good 20
degrees compared to Thursday. As things wind down Friday evening
most of the mountain ranges get around 6-12 inches in general.
On Saturday another piece of energy drops into the backside of
the trough and tracks overhead. In response to that another
round of accumulating snow is possible in the mountains.
Isolated showers could continue on Sunday, but overall it looks
to be a quiet day for most locations. Another potent system is
showing up on the horizon for early to mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
increasing high cloud cover throughout the day. A few wind
gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph will be possible this afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT