860
FXUS65 KGJT 281726
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures remain in place through early
  next week.

- Afternoon storm chances return to the high terrain tomorrow
  with coverage increasing as the week progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Temperatures continue to rise today with zonal flow aloft.
Overall, it will be a rinse and repeat of yesterday with
elevated fire weather conditions due to very low afternoon
relative humidity. Speaking of fires, with a large wildfire
ongoing in southwest Utah and westerly winds today, an uptick in
smoke/haze will likely be observed across eastern Utah and
western Colorado.

A weak shortwave disturbance is progged to slide across
northeast Utah later today resulting in weak moisture advection
to our northern tier of counties. Confidence is increasing for
isolated thunderstorms over the Uinta Mountains. Storms could
produce gusty outflow winds and fire starts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

High pressure will remain centered over central Arizona and New
Mexico at the start of the long term period. On Sunday, a front is
progged to move across our northern neighbors, and may introduce
enough moisture to allow a few stray showers or storms to form
Sunday afternoon. If this occurs, they`ll fire over the northern
half of the CWA but even so, coverage is very isolated. More
isolated convection will be possible again on Monday with the best
chances looking to be along the Divide. As all this occurs, an area
of low pressure will be spinning off the California coast and as it
slowly drifts eastward, deeper moisture will start advecting into
the region. This increase will see an uptick in showers and storms
across the CWA. Latest model runs continue to show the deepest
moisture and widespread showers and storms firing on Wednesday and
again on Thursday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
The NBM is on board with these solutions so the forecast follows
suit for convection Tuesday increasing for Wednesday and Thursday
before decreasing Friday. Plenty of changes are possible between now
and then with regards to the timing of the trough, available
moisture, and coverage so expect some changes to the forecast over
the coming days. Having said that, confidence is continuing to
increase for this widespread precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions are again in place late this morning with clear
skies overhead. Some isolated mid-level cloud cover is possible
this afternoon, as well as 20-knot gusts. Winds calm down this
evening, becoming light and terrain-driven by sunset.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT