519
FXUS65 KGJT 230215
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
815 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain around 10 degrees normal to end out the
  week.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions will produce Red Flag
  conditions over portions of eastern Utah and western Colorado
  where fuels have been determined to be critical on Friday.

- With a shift in the weather pattern over the West this
  weekend precipitation chances look to increase slightly and
  temperatures decrease slightly. Confidence remains low on
  widespread measurable rainfall however.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Critical fire weather conditions have decreased across the
region as relative humidities begin to recover and winds have
decreased across much of the area, so updated to let the Red
Flag Warning expire at 8 pm this evening. Some localized
critical fire weather conditions may continue across east-
central Utah over the next hour, but expect this to subside
soon. In addition, due to an evening update to the fuels
status, added Colorado Fire Zones 292 and 293 to the Red Flag
Warning for Friday as critical fire weather conditions look
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

The H500 hand analysis map this morning has a blocky/omega
pattern across the high latitudes transitioning to a more
progressive one across the CONUS. This flatter weather pattern
will continue to support deep mixing leading to breezy
afternoons combined with low humidity as temperatures run around
10 degrees above normal. Moisture transport vectors suggest
some Pacific moisture being entrained in this flow which is
leading to slightly agitated CU field this afternoon. There
could be some virga that develops under some of the stronger
vertical updrafts but with the extremely dry boundary layer
should prevent any measurable precipitation from reaching the
ground. This remains unchanged for tomorrow with hot...dry and
windy conditions bringing another round of critical fire weather
conditions across portions of eastern Utah in the afternoon.
Virga and a very low probability of a shower (<20%) will be
possible near the Wyoming border tomorrow afternoon. The blocky
high latitude pattern will fold southward by tomorrow evening as
an upstream trough begins to form over the Intermountain West.
This will begin to shift more dynamics and elevated moisture
into our CWA by the weekend and bring slightly cooler
temperatures and slightly higher precipitation chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

The warm, dry, and windy conditions expected during the short
term forecast period will gradually diminish over the weekend,
reducing fire weather concerns. Gusty winds will still be
possible on Saturday as strong winds aloft continue to mix down
in the afternoon. Overnight Saturday into Sunday the strong
winds aloft move to the east of our region. This, along with a
weaker pressure gradient, will reduce afternoon wind gusts
through the long term beginning Sunday. On Saturday PWAT
anomalies climb from below to above normal north of I-70 due to
moisture advection. As a result, isolated showers and storms
will be possible on Saturday where the moisture is available
north of I-70. A passing disturbance and increased moisture
advection on Sunday will help to support elevated PoPs north of
I-70 and along the Divide. Through the remainder of the long
term afternoon showers and storms are possible each day, but
PoPs look to be focused along the Divide. High temperatures on
Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal before falling to
near normal on Sunday. Beyond Sunday temperatures will gradually
climb back to 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Gusty winds of 30 to 35 mph will subside over the next few hours
leading to a tranquil overnight. Some high clouds will drift
overhead but not pose any concern. Rinse and repeat tomorrow
with another afternoon and evening with gusty southwest winds of
30 to 35 mph expected. VFR conditions will remain in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 815 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Well above normal temperatures into Friday will lead to deep
mixing and promote gusty afternoon winds and low humidity in the
single digits and teens. This will lead to critical fire
weather conditions where fuels are dry which at the current time
is over portions of northeast and east-central Utah as well as
portions of west-central Colorado. Temperatures and winds will
be trending downward through the weekend with critical fire
weather areas becoming more localized. Afternoon showers will be
possible but winds are more likely than wetting rainfall.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ203-292-
     293.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ486-487-
     490.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT