716
FXUS65 KGJT 052104
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Convection will continue this afternoon with heavy rain,
  lightning and small hail being the main concern. Coverage will
  decrease this evening though a few stray showers can`t be
  ruled out.

- More showers and storms are expected tomorrow favoring the
  northern half of the CWA as a upper level trough and surface
  cold front move through. Heavy rain, hail, and lightning
  will, once again, be the main concern.

- Drier and warmer conditions return by the weekend into early
  next week with afternoon storms favoring the high terrain and
  more of a gusty wind threat than wetting rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Convection is somewhat weaker than we`ve seen over the last few
days but despite that, plenty of lightning, hail, and some heavy
rainers can be found across the CWA this afternoon. Little has
changed with regards to the ample moisture, peak heating, and instability
to allow this convection to fire. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST
show this convection continuing through 6PM this evening with
coverage decreasing after that. Not all convection will end but
by midnight, should only have to worry about a few showers,
maybe a brief rumble of thunder.

Tomorrow, more convection is expected as an upper level trough
and associated surface cold front move through. CAMs have been
highlighting convection firing around noon, if not a bit
before, as the disturbance approaches from the northwest. An
active afternoon is expected with some heavy rainers, hail, and
plenty of lightning being the main concern once again. Do
anticipate the showers and storms being stronger than those seen
today thanks to the front being a stronger trigger. This
convection should be along the I-70 corridor around 6PM before
moving southward and by midnight, models are showing just about
all precip being over.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This weekend we break out of our wet, troughy weather pattern as a
ridge builds in over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge gradually
moves inland this weekend before taking up residence over the
Intermountain West early next week. Weekend temperatures become more
seasonable as a result before warming to 5-10 degrees above normal
next week. A couple of weak low pressure centers hanging out off the
California coast will keep a steady stream of moisture in place for
the foreseeable future. PWATs will generally remain about 150% of
normal through early next week. This is a big drop from the 200-250%
we`ve had in place this week, but high enough to spawn afternoon
convection over the higher terrain each afternoon despite the lack
of synoptic forcing with high pressure overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Storms have begun to develop over the high terrain with some
drifting into the valleys by late afternoon into the evening.
Confidence was high enough to include prevailing rain or VCTS
at the higher terrain sites like KTEX and KASE but lower
elsewhere as far as timing, so continued PROB30 groups for
thunderstorms after 20Z across most TAF sites. Showers continue
through 06Z especially across central and northern areas before
reducing to isolated overnight. VFR to MVFR will prevail with
brief ILS and IFR in heavier showers/storms.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT