689
FXUS65 KGJT 050452
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
952 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm conditions continue with another round of
  broken high temperature records expected Wednesday.

- Light snow showers are possible on the high country of our
  northern mountains late Wednesday night and into Thursday
  morning.

- A more significant snow event is still in the works for late
  week and early weekend timeframe. This is expected to favor
  the northern/central mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 346 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

Strong warm air advection continues to overcome cloud cover across
the CWA this afternoon, with another broken high temperature record
in the bag here at Grand Junction. Low valleys are near 70 degrees
this afternoon, while mountain areas remain in the 50`s around the
region. This trend continues into Wednesday ahead of a jet max
nosing in to the region. This will drive up surface winds again on
Wednesday afternoon. Winds will gust on the high country in excess
of 35 mph, while the lower elevations will see 20-30 mph gusts
around the region. Along this jet max/frontal boundary a few showers
are expected to develop on the eastern Uintas and across our
northern mountains beginning early Wednesday morning. Thin moisture
supplies will keep surface precipitation confined to the higher
elevations of the Eastern Uintas, Flat Tops, Elk Heads and Park
Range. Some light snow could make it down to Vail Pass too. High
snow levels from seasonably warm temperatures will keep impacts from
any snow confined to pass level and higher. Snow accumulations will
be highest on the Park Range with 2-4 inches expected there. Snow
will taper off late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning as
weak ridging builds back in and pushes the frontal boundary/moisture
track northward.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

Mild west to southwest flow continues as Pacific moisture continues
to move across the region Thursday. It seems to hit the Park Range
and areas across the north, so cannot rule out any snow showers over
the Park Range, but amounts look minimal at this time. This mild
Pacific flow will mostly result in some mid and high level cloud
cover across the north but most areas should see mostly sunny skies.
Highs will continue to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal with some
records likely to be broken as has been the case since Sunday.

The AR moisture increases Friday as IVT values go up to 150 to 200
percent of normal and peak Friday evening and overnight with a peak
to 250 percent of normal before dropping to below 100 by Saturday
morning. This AR moisture is accompanied by a rather robust low
pressure trough and cold front that will bring H7 temperatures down
to -8C to -12C across the central and northern zones by Saturday
morning. However, we will see H7 winds increase quite a bit out
ahead of this cold front Friday afternoon with H7 winds in the 40 to
50 kt range, so gusts up to 45 mph seem possible in some valley
locations. This cold front looks to drop temperatures from 15 to 20
degrees above normal Friday afternoon to near or slightly below
normal by Saturday...putting an end to our warm, well above normal
temperatures and early taste of Spring. As far as model trends
though, models seem to be getting a bit more progressive with this
system, so it doesn`t appear to linger as long or produce as much
snow as earlier runs indicated. However, it does appear that the
northwest Colorado mountains are in store for at least advisory
level accumulations in the 5 to 10 inch range with higher amounts in
the Park Range with up to a foot or more possible. We shall see how
things pan out though with the latest model trends as we get closer
but changes do appear on the way. The details still need to be
worked out though as far as getting a better handle on snowfall
amounts, timing and how far south this tracks.

The rest of the weekend into early next week appears to be dry but
breezy and cooler as the polar jet dips south of the Four Corners.
So our highs look to be closer to if not a few degrees below normal
this weekend into next week...quite the change from what we are
currently experiencing. So enjoy the warm weather while it lasts the
rest of this week and stay up to date on the latest with this next
potentially impactful storm system Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 952 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

Expect VFR conditions during the next 18 hours for all TAF sites.
Drainage flows continue into Wednesday morning. LLWS continues
through Wednesday morning as the mid-level height gradient
tightens. As the flow aloft mixes down from late morning into
early afternoon, breezy southwest winds develop at TAF sites
which will persist throughout the afternoon. A passing
disturbance will bring a some chance of light mixed rain and
snow showers to KHDN and KEGE after 00Z/Thursday with little
chance elsewhere.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...NL