277
FXUS65 KGJT 011743
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1143 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will form along the high terrain
  today with an increasing potential for gusty outflow winds up
  to 45 mph.

- Red Flag Warnings are in place for NW Colorado as critical
  fire weather conditions are expected through the evening. Fire
  Weather Watches are in place for Saturday.

- Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will remain visible
  through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Precipitation has mostly come to an end across the region, but
a few isolated showers and thunderstorms remain. CAMs are
showing these isolated showers continuing through the start of
today`s round of afternoon convection. Shower and thunderstorm
activity today is primarily expected over the San Juans and the
Divide, but isolated cells are possible at lower elevations as
well. Southwesterly flow will keep pushing drier air into our
region, potentially reducing afternoon convection coverage and
bringing more virga than rain reaching the ground. On Saturday
even less precipitation is expected as drier air continues
moving in. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern with any
showers or thunderstorms.

The dry airmass over our area and mixing of stronger winds aloft
will create critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and
on Saturday. Today these conditions look to mostly be in
northwestern Colorado, although they are possible in other
localized areas as well. On Saturday these conditons become more
widespread as afternoon wind gusts increase across the region
and relative humidity values decrease with the drier air.
Consequently, Red Flag Warnings are in place today for
northwestern Colorado and Fire Weather Watches are in place on
Saturday. Smoke from the Dragon Bravo Fire and Monroe Canyon
Fire will continue moving through our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A broad area of high pressure will remain centered over southern
Arizona and New Mexico at the start of the long term period. A few
lingering showers may persist along the Divide Saturday night
because of the previous wave that moved through the region. Starting
Sunday and persisting through Tuesday, hot, dry, and windy
conditions will set up across the region. Speaking of, the hot, dry,
and windy index is showing values above the 95th percentile through
the same time period. PWATs will be well below normal while daytime
RH values will dip into the single digits. Thus, all of the
ingredients will be in place for critical fire weather conditions
for the upcoming days though location and coverage will differ day
by day. Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, some ensembles are
indicating a quick surge in moisture as the high drifts to the east.
A wave may work on this moisture bringing a return to some showers
and thunderstorms. The GFS ensembles are more aggressive with this
scenario versus the EC ensembles though the EC also brings in this
precip. Plenty of time to work out the details. As one would expect,
temperatures will be running hot through the period...5 to 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Scattered showers and storms will remain a threat at most
mountain terminals through this evening with gusty outflow
winds and lightning serving as the main threats. Scattered to
broken mid-level clouds will be the rule with VFR conditions
remaining in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the coming
days as drier air continues moving into the region and mixing
occurs with strong jet winds aloft. Today the critical fire
weather conditions are focused on northwestern Colorado where
Red Flag Warnings are in place, but on Saturday more widespread
coverage of these conditions seems likely so Fire Weather
Watches are in place for various zones along the Colorado and
Utah Border. Isolated to scattered showers are possible,
particularly over the terrain, but with drier air moving in the
chances of wetting rains are decreasing.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for COZ200-207-290.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for UTZ487-490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT