762
FXUS65 KGJT 192316
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
516 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow comes to an end this evening and skies become
  partly cloudy to mostly clear.

- Freezing temperatures will impact susceptible vegetation in
  the low elevation valleys tomorrow morning and a few places
  tomorrow night.

- Temperatures rebound next week with a warm up expected behind
  the Spring snow to the tune of 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 408 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Light snow is expected to continue for the next few hours, but
no significant accumulation is anticipated with wet roads being
the only notable impact. With this, we have decided alongside
PUB and ABQ to cancel Winter Weather Advisories this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The low pressure responsible for the active weather is currently
moving eastward over New Mexico. A plume of moisture can be seen
spreading over portions of southwest Colorado and the San
Juans. Flow is out of the south and east there, which is a
favorable direction for this part of the forecast area. The
high sun angle has warmed some places above freezing and road
conditions have improved even at pass level. Pockets of
moderate to heavy snow are still possible and could cause low
visibility at times this afternoon. The flow shifts to the
north this evening as the low progresses eastward and therefore
we will see a downtick in showers and the end of accumulating
snowfall. Isolated showers may continue along the Divide
into the early morning hours with little accumulation. This low
has brought a seasonably cold airmass to the region so many
locations drop below freezing tonight. Lows tonight are expected
to be in the teens and single digits with 20s and 30s in the
lower valleys with help from clear skies. Freeze warnings have
been issued for places where vegetation is susceptible to damage
from the cold. Tomorrow a weak wave and some moisture moves
across the region bringing a slight chance for showers in the
northern mountains mainly in the afternoon. Not much snow is
expected with these showers. Highs should end up near normal or
up to 5 degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Broad, cyclonic flow across the West Monday will lead to a rather
stagnant, albeit warmer, regime next week. The first half of the
work week will see the West Slope under a mostly zonal, westerly
flow pattern in the base of a low amplitude upper trough. With a
weak jet streak overhead for much of the period, expect afternoon
winds to come up each day. The strongest winds of the extended
period will be Monday afternoon, when we see afternoon gusts in the
30 mph range across much of northwest Colorado/northeast Utah, as
well as the terrain of southwest Colorado. This coincides with a
weak frontal boundary draped along the jet. Non zero precipitation
chances will remain in the forecast for much of our terrain west of
the Continental Divide each afternoon this week, thanks to westerly
orographics. Remnant moisture hangs around too, thanks to melting
snowpack and some weak Pacific moisture working through the
base of the trough. Snow levels stick to the alpine through the
week, as temperatures slowly ratchet upward each day,
culminating Friday with the warmest values of the period, when
desert valleys will be in the 80s and the mountain valleys in
the 60`s. Late week, models begin to advertise another pattern
shift along a PACNW low coming ashore. This will send upper
level flow back to the southwest and push temperatures up and
relative humidities down. Some gusty winds ahead of the trough
could lead to critical fire weather conditions in the
Friday/Saturday timeframe. This will hinge on fuel
susceptibility, and climatologically within the realm of
possible scenarios for late April under an approaching trough
around the Four Corners.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Winds are gusty at KASE, KRIL, KGJT, and KGUC as of now, and
some rain and snow showers may impact KTEX, KDRO, and KGUC for
the next couple hours. Low cigs may drop some higher elevation
terminals below ILS breakpoints this evening as well. Things
calm down throughout most of tomorrow morning, but gusty winds
around 20 to 25 mph are expected pick up again beginning early
in the afternoon and lasting through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
     COZ006-007-011-020>022.
     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     COZ021-022.
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ022-024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BW
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT