


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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798 FXUS65 KGJT 121228 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 628 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will continue to bring heavier rain and strong winds to Colorado through noon. After that, precip finally ends with mostly sunny skies expected. - Another round of increased moisture from TD Raymond moves up from the south Monday into Tuesday with 1 to 2 inches of new rainfall possible. A Flood Watch has been issued for those areas where this heavier rain is expected. - Unsettled weather continues for much of the week as another system moves in from the west bringing more showers and storms to eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 The Flood Watch the covered all of eastern Utah and almost of all of western Colorado has been allowed to expire. That being said, a cold front moving through this morning is still bringing some heavier rains to the area so flooding concerns have diminished though they are not completely over. Rainfall should completely end around noon. A new Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the San Juans and southern valleys as another round of tropical moisture moves in early Monday and continues through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 410 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A cold front is moving across the area this morning bringing some heavy rain and stronger wind gusts with it. Thankfully, drier air is moving in behind the cold front considering how much precip we`ve seen over the last few days (more on that in the Hydro section below). The surface cold front and upper level trough will both have reached the Continental Divide by noon and this will be when rain finally comes to an end. Skies will be clearing from west to east shortly after sunrise leading to mostly sunny skies, also from noon onwards. Highs today are expected to be right around climatological norms so after all the unsettled weather, today will be a nice autumn day. Unfortunately the nice weather won`t last as moisture will start streaming up from the south thanks to the next tropical system, Raymond. Clouds will start increasing across southern portions of the CWA overnight with some light showers possible for the southern valleys up into the San Juans. Precip intensity will increase through the day for those same areas and also spread into central portions of the CWA by daybreak. Pieces of energy will continue to move across the area keeping precip in the forecast for the remainder of the short term period. Once again, PWATs will reach around 200% of normal for much of the CWA so though these anomalous values won`t be as high as they were for Priscilla, there is still some concern for flooding. Those concerns will be greatest for those areas that have already seen flooding (Vallecito and Pagosa Springs) so went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for those areas. Storm total precip amounts are currently in the 1 to 2 inch range after combining NBM and WPC forecast QPFs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 410 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 By Monday evening, the low descending along the West Coast is turning the corner about the San Francisco Bay area to eject to the northeast across the Great Basin into southeastern Idaho, Wyoming, and eastern Montana before hitting the Saskatchewan Canadian Border, and with the high pressure over Texas setting up a southerly flow aloft, deep moisture from the Remnants of TS Raymond is being drawn up into the San Juan Mountains. Unfortunately, the focus of this moisture is in the area around and above Pagosa Springs where current flooding of the San Juan River is ongoing. Current guidance is forecasting another one to two inches rain around Pagosa Springs an two to three inches over the higher terrain above Pagosa Springs. For this reason, the Flood Warning for the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs is in effect until midnight Tuesday. Though the models are in good agreement with the track of the low as it ejects to the northeast, they very wildly on the speed of the ejecting low with the Canadian model pushing it to the Canadian Border by Wednesday evening, while the GFS lags by 18 hours and the European yet another 24 behind the GFS. Current guidance is tracking with the timing of the GFS keeping the plume in place through Tuesday morning. If the timing is slower, the moist plume will remain over the Pagosa Springs area longer. Stay tuned for updates to the Flood Warning, as it may need to be extended into Wednesday. Look for afternoon winds gusting 15 to 25 mph in the lower valleys and 30 to 45 mph over the higher terrain Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the cold front associated with the ejecting low. Temperatures across most of eastern Utah and Western Colorado will warm to near normal to five degrees above normal for mid October Tuesday. With the frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon, the highs will only be near normal, but with the northwesterly flow behind the front Thursday onwards, temperatures will run about ten degrees below normal. This will push the morning low to the freezing mark or colder for most of the valleys around the region. Looks like only the Grand Valley over to the Moab area will be spared Friday and Saturday. It is mid October and to be expected. Now is the time to make plans for your gardens. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 535 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A cold front moving through colorado extending from KEGE southwest to the Four Corners continues to push to the southeast with showers and a few thunderstorms. There are snow showers in the cold air behind the front currently at KHDN and likely at KASE before 15Z. This front will exit the region by 18Z with showers ending in the early afternoon. Expect conditions below ILS breakpoints at KHDN, KRIL, KEGE and KASE through about 15Z. Look for clearing conditions with breezy west to northwest winds after 18Z with winds dropping off after 00Z. Mid-level clouds and showers start moving into southwestern Colorado after 06Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 624 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 The amount of precipitation some areas have received over the past few days has been exceedingly impressive to say the least. Looking at 48 hour totals (unofficially), most areas across the San Juans received between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with a few spots reaching just over 5 inches. 1 to 2 inches was common across central portions of Colorado with anywhere from a half to 1 inch for the northern valleys. Most of eastern Utah received the same, a half to 1 inch of rain. Unfortunately, this amount of rain did cause flooding around the Vallecito and Pagosa Springs areas. The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs peaked at 12.7 inches which is above major flood stage. Latest observations show the river now at 9.70 feet as of 630AM and continuing to lower which is certainly good news. Issued a new Flood Watch for portions of the San Juans and southern valleys as TD Raymond brings another surge of moisture from the south Monday into Tuesday. While this surge won`t be as strong as what we saw with Priscilla, a few inches of rain is possible and thus the Watch. Once again, excessive rainfall may result in flooding of recent burn scars, urban areas, and other low- lying and flood-prone locations. Rockslides and mudslides will also be possible in the mountains. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for COZ019-022-023. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...TGR SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DB HYDROLOGY...TGJT