434
FXUS65 KGJT 121143
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
443 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure remains in control keeping warm and dry
  conditions across the area.

- An active weather pattern sets up this weekend and beyond
  bringing periods of mountain rain/snow, valley rain, and more
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Ridging remains the dominant feature over the Intermountain West
though this will start changing as a long wave trough approaches
from the west. Until then, however, warm and dry conditions will
remain in place through the remainder of the week. There will be
an increase in mid and high cloud cover thanks to an upper
level jet that will ride up and over the ridge which may temper
high temperatures some. For now, guidance continues to suggest
highs will run anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above more
seasonal averages both today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Despite weakly elevated atmospheric moisture amounts, the weather
will remain quiet through Friday evening as ridging and minimal
forcing keep precipitation chances very low. A low pressure system
off the coast of California is expected to bring an atmospheric
river across the West through the weekend. The increased moisture
from the atmospheric river presently looks to reach our area late
Friday, and may persist through the weekend or beyond. PWAT
anomalies are forecasted to peak above 200% of normal on Sunday.

Confidence is increasing that there will be abundant moisture from
the atmospheric river, and that forcing from the passage of the low
pressure system will support a widespread precipitation event across
the region. However, confidence in timing and the movement of the
low is less due to changes between models and model runs. Currently
ensembles seem to be favoring Sunday for the passage of the system
through our region.

This system is expected to bring valley rain and mountain snow. The
period of warm temperatures preceding this event does allow for
some uncertainty with where snow levels will be during this system.
Snow levels are presently expected to remain above 9000 ft during
the daytime hours, but may drop closer to 8000 ft as temperatures
cool overnight.

Models really begin to diverge on the forecast for early next week,
but it does appear there is a chance of another system passing early
in the week, which would being an additional round of valley and
mountain snow. High temperatures will run well above normal until
the passage of the low pressure system this weekend. Increased cloud
cover may decrease daytime temperatures Sunday onwards, but
persistent southwest to westerly flow may only allow for a decrease
to seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 440 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light. High level cloud cover will
increase through the morning, and remain in place until after
06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT