331
FXUS65 KGJT 250157
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
757 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One final round of Red Flag Warnings are in effect this
  afternoon across portions of northeast Utah and northwest
  Colorado.

- Scattered storms are expected today and tomorrow across the
  southern and central Colorado mountains. The main threats
  include gusty outflow winds and frequent lighting.

- Above-normal temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions
  return late this week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Red Flag Warnings have been allowed to expire on schedule this
evening. Winds are lightening up around the region and relative
humidities have begun to recover. Continued caution regarding
fire is encouraged as warm and dry conditions continue across
much of the region tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 351 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A trough over the Great Basin has resulted in modest southwest flow,
which has contributed to critical fire weather conditions across the
northwest half of the CWA. Winds decrease this evening so that
threat will end. The strong flow has also advected moisture into the
southeast portion of the area. This has resulted in higher humidity
and scattered showers and storms. These showers will continue this
afternoon with perhaps another round overnight that could linger
into the morning in and around the San Juans. The highest chances
for these showers is the southern and central mountains as well as
some of the surrounding valleys. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph
and frequent lighting are anticipated with any storms. Tomorrow the
trough passes overhead, which will provide lift for another round of
showers and storms. This extra lift and the continuation of moisture
advection overnight should allow for convection further west and
north than today. Therefore expect at least a slight chance for
showers tomorrow afternoon for most of the higher terrain and some
adjacent valleys. Any showers are expected to dissipate during the
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

After a brief period of increased atmospheric moisture, dry air
returns to our CWA overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture does
not look to return to our region until early next week. As such,
chances of precipitation remain very low across the area through the
weekend. With moisture potentially moving in early next week
afternoon convection may return to the Divide on Monday.

Despite the absence of atmospheric moisture, and afternoon relative
humidity values dropping to single digits, concerns about critical
fire weather conditons are limited during much of the long term
due to weaker winds. The exception to this is on Friday.
Afternoon wind gusts are expected to generally stay below
critical fire weather thresholds, although some localized areas
on Friday may experience gusts above 25 mph. Wind gusts are
calmer through the long term as the pressure gradient over our
CWA weakens while high pressure builds. Additionally, the
highest windspeeds aloft stay to the north of our CWA.

An increase in temperature is expected across the area as high
pressure builds. Temperatures will gradually climb over the
coming days, resulting in high temperatures that are 5 to 10
degrees above normal by the weekend. This means highs near 100
degrees are once again possible for the desert valleys this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Scattered clouds and isolated showers will work northward up the
Divide this evening, diminishing towards sunset. A few gusty
outflows are possible with these decaying showers. VFR
conditions will prevail overnight and Wednesday morning. Showers
increase in coverage along the west side of the Divide Wednesday
afternoon. Aviation concerns will include low ceilings, gusty
winds, and some brief visibility restrictions. Specific
coverage is a low confidence forecast at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

One last day of critical fire weather conditions is on tap for
most zones along and north of I-70 where wind gusts up to 35 mph
and min RH values between 5-15% are expected. Moisture moves in
along the Divide today and tomorrow bringing shower and storm
chances to the high terrain, but wetting rain chances are low.
The main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and lightning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-
     203-205-290.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-
     490.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LTB
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT