628
FXUS65 KGJT 162023
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and storms will favor the higher terrain
  this afternoon. Some gusty outflow winds, lightning, brief
  heavier showers will be possible.

- High pressure builds in Sunday onwards bringing a return to
  warming temperatures and drier air. Even so, some isolated
  convection will be possible along the Divide and eastern
  Uintas.

- Confidence continues to increase for a prolonged push of
  monsoonal moisture late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Short range models are performing well this afternoon as they
have picked up on the increased moisture and daytime heating to
allow isolated convection to fire over the higher terrain.
Speaking of, the 18Z upper air flight at Grand Junction reported
0.93 inches of PWAT and just over 700 J/kg of CAPE so, as
mentioned, there`s plenty of instability and available moisture.
Gusty outflow winds of 40 to 45 mph, some lightning, and brief,
heavy showers will be possible under the stronger cells.
Convection will continue through the early evening hours before
daytime heating wanes and precip becomes more showery. A few
showers can`t be ruled out overnight. Fingers crossed this
convection today will not spark more wildfires.

Sunday, high pressure builds in as southwesterly flow sets up
bringing a return to drier air (60 to 70% of normal) and
warming temperatures. Still might see some isolated convection
along the Continental Divide and the eastern Uintas but coverage
is expected to be less than that seen today. The good news is
that despite the dry air and increasing high temps, surface
winds are expected to be fairly light (outside of the occasional
stronger gust) so critical fire weather conditions are not
expected to be met.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Monday looks to be the driest day of the long term as we remain
under dry southwesterly flow. PWATs are expected to drop to roughly
50-75% of normal Monday afternoon and evening. There may be enough
moisture in the southern mountains to support some convection Monday
afternoon, but dry thunderstorms will be a possibility as moisture
will be limited. High pressure will build over the region early in
the week, supporting a shift in flow that will begin to alleviate
the dry conditions across the region. With the small increase in
moisture, convection in the southern mountains will continue to be
possible each afternoon. PoPs are very low across the rest of the
CWA until late in the week, as more moisture advects into the area.
The center of high pressure will slowly move south, allowing for a
shift to west to northwesterly flow by the weekend. This is when the
biggest surge of monsoonal moisture looks possible, particularly in
the northern half of the CWA. The increase in moisture is currently
expected to bring a widespread increase in chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Confidence is increasing regarding the late week
moisture increase, but considering this is around a week out things
could certainly change. Temperatures will climb to well above normal
while the region is under high pressure. Highs will increase to 5 to
15 degrees above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain
this afternoon. Most TAF sites are not expected to be impacted,
but PROB30 has been included for KASE, KTEX, KHDN, and KVEL. The
main concerns with thunderstorms will be lightning and gusty
outflow winds. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT