253
FXUS65 KGJT 172127
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
227 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow will continue through this evening, mainly over
  the northern Divide mountains.

- Seasonal temperatures highlight the extended forecast with
  periodic chances for mountain snow through the end of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

The low pressure system responsible for yesterday and today`s
precipitation currently sits near the Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska
border and will continue to propagate east/northeast throughout
the rest of the day. This means that the coverage of valley rain
and mountain is decreasing across the forecast area with areas
along and north of I-70 seeing the highest potential for
precipitation continuing this evening. While the center of the
low has moved east of the local area, wrap around moisture
continues to favor the northern Divide mountains resulting in
light snow showers through the evening hours with little, if
any, additional accumulation expected overnight.

Seasonal temperature highlight tomorrow`s forecast with dry
conditions for most. That being said, southwesterly flow aloft
will begin to usher in the next round of moisture to the Four
Corners region tomorrow. This moisture in tandem with upslope
flow may be enough to support isolated to scattered showers
across eastern Utah and into parts of southwest Colorado, but
limited forcing will keep most locales dry. If it does rain
(valleys) or snow (mountains), minimal impacts are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

A low pressure system over the Desert Southwest will open up
and looks to track northeastward across the Four Corners
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Models haven`t been the most
consistent in terms of the evolution of this low and track but
it does at least look like weather remains unsettled through the
end of the week. Beyond this, yet another closed low looks to
move down the west coast behind this disturbance and settles
over the Desert Southwest this coming weekend. Models differ on
the exact track of this system so low confidence on the details
at this time. The GFS has this low tracking across the area
Sunday into Monday as an open trough, while the ECMWF takes this
low far enough south to result in minimal impact for our CWA.
Would like to see better run to run consistency before
discussing details on potential snowfall totals and what areas
would be more favored. However, it does look like much of this
coming week into the weekend will remain on the cooler side of
normal more often than not and unsettled with periods of valley
rain and mountain snow and more cloud cover than sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Showers will continue through the afternoon with mountain snow
and valley rain, particularly at KASE, KHDN, KGUC, KEGE and
KRIL with periods of MVFR/IFR and ILS breakpoints being reached
due to lower CIGS. This current system will exit this evening
with generally improving conditions and higher ceilings this
evening into the overnight, although skies still will remain SCT
to BKN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ004-013.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT