603
FXUS65 KGJT 251740
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1040 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures fluctuate from near normal to above normal by
  late in the workweek.

- Other than some mild snow showers in the northern mountains
  conditions remain dry for most locations this week.

- A stronger weather system could impact holiday travel across
  the Intermountain West this weekend with wintery conditions in
  the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

The potential for light snow showers over the northern Colorado
mountains throughout the remainder of tonight has dwindled
significantly. At the absolute best, the highest elevations
have about a 25% chance of seeing any snowfall through sunrise.
Many CAM`s are on board with this trend as well. Though some
modest moisture still appears to be residing over these areas as
seen in satellite imagery, the cold front passing through just
hasn`t been strong enough to prompt any showers. Moisture does
jump back up tomorrow though, and with northwesterly flow still
in place, we could have a better shot at seeing measurable
snowfall beginning Wednesday night. Even so, it`s highly
unlikely (<35% chance per NBM) that we will see any more than a
couple inches of accumulation, the majority of which would be
confined to mountain passes and higher elevations anyways.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

We remain under a northwesterly flow regime through late in the
week with seasonal to slight above normal temperatures and
mostly dry conditions. Periodic flurries are possible over the
northern mountains at times due to favorable orographic lift,
but measurable snow is not anticipated at this time.

Attention then turns to an active pattern that is expected to
develop over the western CONUS this weekend. It could start as
early as Friday as chances are increasing for a clipper system
in northwest flow. This could bring precipitation to the
northern and central mountains. On Saturday the ensembles show
the next piece of energy trying to cut off from the main flow
somewhere over the region. Regardless of what that low does the
main trough will push a cold front through our CWA. It looks
like the low pressure will provide the moisture to produce
precipitation. There is a potential for snow levels to reach the
lower valleys, which means wintery conditions for the
mountains. As of now Sunday has the highest chances for
widespread precipitation, but that could change. This system
could cause impacts to the holiday travel expected so stay tuned
as we refine the timing and details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Gradual improvement of low ceilings is expected this afternoon,
although the timing at which those clouds scatter out is a
little less certain. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail with
stronger winds than we`ve seen over the past couple of days.
Prevailing winds up to 10-15 knots are likely with some sites
gusting up to 20-25 knots periodically this afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT