467
FXUS65 KGJT 030422
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
922 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts are expected over
  portions of the Colorado mountains through Thursday morning.
  Winter Weather Advisories are in place.

- Brief ridging builds in Thursday bringing pleasant weather
  with below normal highs.

- Unsettled weather remains in the forecast Friday and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 147 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

As expected, the first wave that moved through this morning
brought some light snow to much of the region with minor
accumulations that melted as the day progressed. A brief lull
continues presently while cloud cover should temper overnight
lows compared to this morning.

The bigger push will occur later this evening and tomorrow as
the upper level trough and cold front pushes through. Some
banding may be possible as the heavier snowfall focuses along
and just behind the front. The current advisories look good but
the latest model runs did bump up amounts for the southern
portions of the San Juans so did add them to the going
advisories. Also extended the time of the San Juans advisories
through 09Z Thursday as the latest runs also slowed down the
timing of the precip. Did not include some of the central
mountains as amounts are still just below advisory criteria with
2 to 5 inches expected there. As the front moves through an
inch or two of snow will be possible along the I-70 corridor and
valleys south. As the trough axis moves out of the area by
Thursday morning so, too, will the precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

The trough moving through our area will have propagated to our east
by Thursday morning. Dry, northwesterly flow behind the trough will
keep precipitation to a minimum throughout the day Thursday. However,
beginning Friday, continuous high elevation snow looks possible
through the weekend, especially for the northern and central
mountains. Atmospheric moisture looks to become slightly elevated on
Friday from a weak push of moisture, and then even more elevated on
Saturday as a stronger moisture push occurs. The increased moisture,
orographic lift from northwesterly flow, and a few weak waves of
energy may allow for 4 to 8 inches of snow in the northern and
central mountains, and possibly higher amounts in the Park Range by
the end of the weekend. There seems to be ok agreement on timing of
snowfall, including between ensembles, from run to run, and between
ensemble members. However, there are still pretty significant
differences regarding snow amounts. So, there is definitely still
uncertainty with how much snow will accumulate. High temperatures
look to warm through the long term, beginning well below normal on
Thursday, and becoming near or above normal by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 920 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Uncertainty in flight conditions is high through the period. A
system moving through the area will affect every taf site with
snow showers. The snow may result in LIFR/IFR conditions at
times, which means inconsistent vis and cigs. There is a
potential for prolonged periods (+3 hours) of snow. Winds will
generally be light with flow becoming mainly north towards the
end of the period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ004-
     010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ009-012-
     017>019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT