420
FXUS65 KGJT 202049
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
149 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers are expected through tomorrow evening
  generally above 7000 feet.

- Additional snowfall ranges from 1-6 inches with the highest
  amounts in the mountains.

- Temperatures stay near normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1238 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

A low pressure system is currently tracking over New Mexico, and
will eventually end up over the High Plains tonight. Moisture from
that low has settled in our CWA and has been responsible for showers
over the last 24 hours. Steep lapse rates and that moisture will
result in additional shower development this afternoon through the
overnight. The high terrain will be favored since the main forcing
is passing to our south. Tomorrow moisture becomes concentrated
along and north of I-70, so that is where the best chances for
showers will be although isolated showers are possible elsewhere.
These showers look to dissipate tomorrow night as dry air takes
advects into the region. Additional snowfall amounts from now until
tomorrow evening range from 1-6 inches with snow levels generally
around 7-8 kft. Periods of heavy to moderate snowfall are possible
until about midnight, which is when the rates are expected
become more light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another cutoff low works across the Southwest Saturday, promising
our next opportunity for precipitation early Sunday morning. As
discussed here this morning, model guidance slightly differs on
north-south trajectory of this feature. For the time being, it looks
like enough wraparound moisture will make its way north to deliver
another round of measurable snowfall to the San Juans. Snow levels
remain above 8500 feet, dipping down towards the tail end of this
storm. Uncertainty creeps in fast as we look at the northward extent
of this system. It does look like some snow will make it as far
north as I-70 and the Vail Pass corridor, with light accumulations
on our Central Mountains. Given this scenario, evening travel
Sunday, as well as Monday morning travel on Vail Pass could see some
light impacts.

This system clears out Monday afternoon, leaving some
cold air in its wake. Temperatures will trend below climatology for
the remainder of the extended period Tuesday into Thursday. Dry,
northwest flow will further entrench cooler weather. Some
indications start to materialize that the persistent ridging in the
eastern Pacific collapses late next week. This is one of the first
signs of the jet sinking southward from its location along the
Canadian Border. It also opens up the opportunity for some
orographic snowfall across the northern mountains late next week.
Breaking up a lengthy pattern like this gives me pause, but the eyes
of December are starting to come into view. Shorter days and less
sun can hopefully lend a hand to get the jet southward, giving us a
fighting chance at a legitimate storm track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1044 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Breakpoint ceilings accompanied by rain and snow showers will
continue to impact terminals this afternoon. Winds remain
light with a few gusts associated with embedded shower activity.
Precipitation will begin to taper some south to north this
evening and early Friday morning, but cloud cover remains
persistent into the morning hours of Friday, with light snow
hanging up west of the Divide and low ceilings to go along with
it. Therefore looking for little improvement tomorrow morning
for KHDN, KEGE, KASE, and other mountain terminals.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
     COZ019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT