059
FXUS65 KGJT 042350
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
550 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms continue along and north of I-70 through the
  evening hours. Outflow winds will strengthen as the day
  progresses.

- High pressure sets up this weekend and lingers into the coming
  week, with temperatures climbing to 5-10 degrees above normal
  by mid next week and generally dry conditions dominating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A stream of dry air aloft has limited afternoon convection despite
surface dew points in the low 60s along and north of I-70 this
morning. Isolated storm chances continue through this evening, but
we`ve passed the peak of convection across eastern Utah and western
Colorado. Impressive D-CAPE is present in northeast Utah and
northwest Colorado, so any showers or storms that develop there will
be capable of producing outflow winds as high as 50-60 mph.

Southwesterly flow will continue to advect dry air into the region
tomorrow with afternoon mixing bring more of that dry air towards
the surface. There will likely be enough near-surface moisture for
cumulus fields to develop, especially over the high terrain, but
convection will be much harder to come by. Isolated showers and
storms over the high terrain cannot be ruled out north of I-70 (10%
chance) but most areas will stay dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A center of high pressure to our south will set up our region for a
series of hot and dry days, with chances for precipitation over the
terrain each afternoon. Despite elevated PoPs over the Divide and
San Juans each day of the long term, the actual quantitative amount
of precipitation in the forecast is very little. The GFS Ens has been
trending drier, finding agreement with the ECMWF Ens. Although,
the ECMWF Ens is still forecasting less moisture available than
the GFS Ens. Overall PWAT anomalies look to be 70-100% of
normal through the end of the workweek. With these dry
conditions in place, showers and thunderstorms over the terrain
are generally not expected to be efficient producers of rain
that reaches the ground. Single digit afternoon relative
humidity values return to the forecast through the long term.
Despite the anticipated dry conditions, calm winds from high
pressure should keep us from meeting critical fire weather
conditions. However, a closed low off the coast of California
looks to make its way across the West through the week, passing
to the north of our CWA on Thursday as a weak trough. As the
pressure gradient increases with the passing trough, there is
potential for stronger afternoon gusts. High temperatures will
be above normal, with Wednesday looking to be the hottest day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Afternoon convection has primarily stayed to our northwest,
although KVEL may see some thunderstorms before sunset.
Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected through tomorrow
morning. VFR conditions will prevail and winds will become light
overnight. Cloud cover will diminish over the coming hours,
leading to FEW or SKC for most sites. Tomorrow after 18Z gusts
of 15 to 25 mph are possible across the region.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT