361
FXUS65 KGJT 170435
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
935 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley rain, mountain snow, and a few thunderstorms are
  expected through Monday afternoon.

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for 4 to 8 inches of
  snow above 9,000 feet for the San Juans, Grand Mesa, Flat Tops
  and northern mountains. Use caution

- Cooler temperatures highlight the extended forecast with
  periodic chances for mountain snow through the end of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Rain showers will continue to move in from west to east today
as a low pressure system tracks towards the Intermountain West.
Rain will switch over to snow above 9,000 feet by this evening giving
way to mountain snow region wide as temperatures cool. In
general, 4-8" of snow is expected above 9,000 feet with
hazardous travel possible over mountain passes tonight into
tomorrow. As a result, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.
The northern Divide mountains hold onto snow a little longer
with wrap around moisture from the departing low leading to
additional snowfall throughout the day tomorrow. Locally higher
amounts up to 12 inches are possible along the spine of the Park
Range with snowfall tapering off tomorrow evening.

The days of unseasonably warm temperatures have come to a close
with noticably cooler conditions on tap tomorrow. Although
forecasted high temperatures are roughly 10 degrees cooler than
today, they will be in line with the climatological average for
mid November.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

On Tuesday the next low pressure system moves southward along
the coast of California. Moisture spreads into the region ahead
of that low, which may support showers across the CWA. Forcing
will be limited removed from the low, so the coverage showers
and how far north they expand northward is uncertain. As of now
southern portions of the CWA are favored. On Wednesday the low
pressure moves inland over the Desert Southwest and continues to
advect moisture into our area keeping at least slight chances
for showers around. Once again the south and high terrain is
favored for precipitation. Models have been inconsistent among
each other and run to run, so confidence in the track of the low
on Thursday onward is low. One thing more certain this upcoming
week is that temperatures remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR/ILS conditions are dominating the TAF late this evening with
MVFR/IFR conditions present over KTEX due to passing moderate
snow showers. Clouds and precipitation will continue to make for
a difficult TAF forecast for many areas overnight and well into
Monday afternoon. So a mix of VFR with low probability/tempo
MVFR conditions are forecast for the bulk of the western
Colorado TAF sites east of KGJT. Widespread terrain obscuration
can be expected through the next 24 hours as well.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Monday for COZ004-009-
     013.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Monday for COZ018-019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT