318
FXUS65 KGJT 141132
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
532 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler temperatures are expected today, along with
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

- Afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast
  through the end of the week and into the weekend, favoring the
  higher terrain.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through Saturday, before the
  next system brings a return of cooler, below normal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

The cold front is marching its way through the area this morning,
bringing much calmer winds and much cooler temperatures along with
it. Breezy southwesterly winds with gusts up to 40 mph are expected
to persist over the Colorado mountains through this afternoon as the
surface front gets hung up on the terrain and slowly oozes its way
east. Despite the difficulties of the surface front tracking east,
the colder air aloft is already in place, reflected in temperatures
already 10-15 degrees colder than this time yesterday. Highs this
afternoon will follow this pattern, with the lower valleys in the
mid to upper 60s and the mountain towns in the low to mid 40s. As
the trough moves overhead this afternoon, rain and snow showers,
along with a few thunderstorms, will develop mainly over the higher
terrain, with a few showers or storms possible over the valleys as
well. Accumulating snow will be possible at elevations above 9K
feet, with light accumulations of 1-3 inches expected over the
southern and central mountains and 2-4 inches over the northern
mountains. Clouds and showers will linger longest over the northern
and central mountains, while eastern Utah and southwest Colorado
sees skies clear this evening into the overnight. With clear skies
and light winds expected, conditions are right for strong
radiational cooling. The southwest Colorado valleys, where the
growing season is already well underway, are expected to drop below
32F for several hours tonight into tomorrow morning. Therefore, the
Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning from midnight
tonight to 8AM tomorrow morning.

As the core of this trough tracks east of the Divide tonight,
temperatures will moderate a bit tomorrow. Highs will climb about 5
degrees above those expected today, though still around 5 degrees
below normal. Another wave will swing through tomorrow afternoon,
kicking off another round of showers and thunderstorms across the
area. The higher terrain will once again be most favored, with light
snow accumulations of a trace to 2 inches above 9K feet. Lower
elevations, including some valleys, will see light rain showers and
maybe a thunderstorm or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Transient ridging builds in Thursday night into Friday, with
temperatures reaching near normal values. Moisture lingering under
this ridge will keep orographic showers and storms in the forecast
Friday and Saturday afternoons. By Saturday, temperatures are
expected to climb to around 5 degrees above normal. Model guidance
is suggesting that another deep low pressure is expected to drop
over the Great Basin this weekend. This will bring increased winds
on Sunday, as well as increased chances for precipitation Sunday and
Monday. While model agreement is gradually improving, they still do
not agree on the exact strength, timing and location of the low.
Regardless of the precip, temperatures will cool once again as this
system progresses through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

High level clouds have begun filling in from west to east this
morning, but shouldn`t pose an impact to aviation at this time.
Widely scattered showers and storms will form over the higher
terrain this afternoon, bringing lowering ceilings and the
potential for brief periods of MVFR conditions. Additionally,
westerly winds will pick up once again this afternoon, with
gusts of 20-30 knots expected across the area. KDRO will deal
with some blowing dust during the afternoon. Showers will taper
after sunset and winds will start to decrease. VFR conditions
will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     COZ021>023.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT