853
FXUS65 KGJT 031731
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1131 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather continues today with widespread snow showers
  across the mountains, where 4-8 inches of new snow are
  expected today.

- A brief lull in snow will work through late tonight and Friday
  morning, before more mountain snow returns. Accumulations will
  vary from south to north with the greatest amounts in the San
  Juans Friday afternoon into Saturday evening.

- Seasonably cold temperatures continue with a warm up expected
  Sunday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 441 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A surface low spins overhead, roughly centered over the Four Corners
this morning. This has produced snow showers around southeast Utah
and southwest Colorado during the overnight hours. Accumulating snow
has turned up on some area ski and highway cameras. This is expected
to continue today as the upper level trough dug out across the Great
Basin does not budge and a series of waves continue to pinwheel
around this thing. The lengthy residence time of this circulation
will be its best ally, as it wraps up more of the cold air parked in
the gut of the upper trough. Snow rates look to peak this morning
into mid day over the Abajos, La Sals, and southwest San Juans,
where winter weather advisories continue through midnight tonight.
Snow showers will spread north to the remainder of our mountain
zones this morning, with a few valleys seeing a rain snow mix.
However, accumulating snow is expected to remain confined to the
mountains today.

Late Thursday night and early Friday, height rises show some filling
of the low and tamp down the snow production heading into Friday
morning. Aside from some flurries clinging to the shoulders of the
Continental Divide, snow will pretty much be gone by daybreak
Friday. This ushers in the next concern for Freeze Warnings and
whether skies will clear sufficiently Friday morning for our dessert
valleys to see another freeze. At the moment, lows look to be near
freezing versus the hard freeze we saw Wednesday morning. Early
Friday, another spin up develops in the gut of the upper trough. By
afternoon, the upper trough is expected to push east along with
another round of snow for our San Juans, as wraparound from the
passing surface low to the south pulls in more cold air. Favorable
northerly aspects around Ouray look to do well here, as well as the
high country to the south. Went ahead and issued another Winter
Weather Advisory for COZ018 and COZ019, beginning Friday afternoon,
where it looks like 6-10 inches of new snow can be expected.
Elsewhere in our Central/Northern mountains snow rates will be a
touch more anemic and new accumulations Friday into Saturday hover
in the 2-5 inch range there. Most of the snow north of the San Juans
will wrap up late Friday night. Temperatures will try to rebound
some on Friday along the UT/CO line, but cloud cover and
precipitation look to keep things on the cold side again, while we
work through this pool of cold air across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The broad, split trough of low pressure aloft lingers over the West
on Friday, then gradually moves east of the forecast area on
Saturday. Beneath the col between the northern and southern streams,
lingering moisture and instability will lead to scattered to
numerous showers, especially over higher terrain during the
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible which will lead to
local bursts of heavy snow and gusty outflow winds.
This activity decreases Friday night as drying and subsidence arrive
on the western flank of the low as the trough axis shifts east of
the Continental Divide. However, return flow on the western flank of
a cold front sweeping southward along the eastern Colorado plains
will regenerate showers over the central Colorado and San Juan
Mountains on Saturday. This activity will diminish on Saturday night
with only isolated/low end scattered showers lingering over the
extreme southeast San Juan Mountains by sunrise Sunday. Drying
continues Sunday into Monday as a high pressure ridge develops over
the Rockies. Models indicated a low amplitude short wave trough
undercuts the ridge on Tuesday bringing the potential for showers.
Models in fair agreement so unclear how much coverage and
precipitation can be expected.

Temperatures are expected to continue running cooler than normal
through Saturday, recovering to near normal Sunday, before the
warming trend lifts temperatures to close to 10 degrees above normal
on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A system continues to move through the area this afternoon and
evening, bringing periods of rain and snow to most terminals.
Ceilings at KASE, KEGE, and KRIL are expected to remain near or
below ILS breakpoints. Additionally, passing showers will lower
ceilings and visibility below breakpoints at most locations.
While VFR conditions will prevail, MVFR to IFR conditions will
be possible through 06z this tonight. Winds will be westerly to
northwesterly, and potentially gusty this afternoon. Winds will
weaken after sunset. Conditions will start to improve after 06z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon MDT Saturday
     for COZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight MDT
     Saturday night for COZ019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT