289
FXUS65 KGJT 042110
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
310 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds of 30 to 40 mph, sometimes stronger, will
  continue through the early evening hours. Showers and a few
  storms will also continue through the early evening hours,
  mainly across the northern valleys.

- Isolated showers will continue across the WY/CO border and
  northern mountains tonight through tomorrow.

- High temps will drop to near normal of just below tomorrow,
  then rebound to near normal values Monday as warmer and more
  seasonable conditions return.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

As expected, widespread showers and thunderstorms continued for
much of the day and only now are starting to wane. That being
said, some showers and storms do persist, mainly north of the
I-70 corridor. The latest CAM guidance also shows convection
dying down as we head towards 6PM and this follows as upper
level dynamics move out to the Front Range while the closed low
at the base of the upper level trough becomes an open wave and
tracks northward.

Models were spot on with regards to the stronger winds today as
the 90+ kt jet streak moved overhead. Radar was showing 60 to
70kt winds at 10K feet but they stayed aloft for much of the
morning with many areas reporting gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Some
deeper mixing early in the afternoon finally allowed the
convection to bring occasional wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph to the
surface. A few spots did report wind speeds over 60 mph but
these were very few and far between. Latest obs are showing most
wind gusts have backed down to the 30 to 40 mph but a few gusts
near 50 mph will remain possible for the remainder of the
afternoon.

Tonight and tomorrow, a few showers will linger along the WY/CO
border and the northern mountains as the open wave continues to
move to the north and another disturbance drops down from the
northwest. This next wave will stay over Wyoming and just clip
the CWA and thus the limited coverage. Dry conditions will move
into the southern half of the CWA while the highest moisture
will remain up north, thus the chance (20 to 40%) for an
isolated shower.

Lows tonight will be noticeably cooler with some areas in the
southern valleys hovering just above freezing. Tomorrow, highs
will also be cooler, reaching normal or just a little below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Near-term model trends remain in good agreement with the initial
upper trough that became established over the region this weekend,
becoming reinforced as second wave sharpens west of the area early
Monday. This wave then drifts slowly eastward before becoming
quickly disorganized Tuesday. The best available moisture and
chances for light precipitation with this feature, lingers over the
eastern third of Colorado through Tuesday, where there remains some
support for showers/storms, along with some higher elevation snows.

Otherwise, model trends differ for the second half of the work week
concerning the overall pattern development and moisture transport
back into the region. However, there is a trend toward a drier and
more disorganized period developing Wednesday, before making a
transition toward building upper heights, with some increased mid
level moisture, over the Four Corner states beginning Thursday.
Overall the coolest temps, near normal, are forecast Tuesday but
will warm to above normal readings Wednesday and Thursday and
remainder above normal into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A period of showers and thunderstorms continue to lift northward
across Colorado and eastern Utah through the afternoon, as an
upper level system slowly advances eastward. The main impacts
into this evening with any storm will be lightning, gusty winds
and locally heavy rain. Gusty winds to 25-35 knots are expected
through this evening, before diminishing for most zones by
early Sunday morning. Mainly expect VFR cigs, except MVFR/IFR
at times in heaviest rain. Mainly MVFR VSBY in areas of
precipitation.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ020-021.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...TGJT