100
FXUS65 KGJT 120959
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
359 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system will arrive tomorrow and continue through
  Friday evening. The combination of snow and wind tomorrow
  night may cause travel issues.

- In general, snowfall amounts will be 4-12 inches in the
  mountains and 1-3 inches in the valleys by Friday evening.

- Wind gusts of 30-50 mph will be common tomorrow afternoon with
  speeds as high as 60 mph in the mountains.

- A round of light snow is possible on Saturday. Temperatures
  will be much cooler after the cold front tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

A shortwave trough is currently tracking over the Desert Southwest
and will continue to progress eastward through the day. Moisture
from this wave will lead to increased cloud cover today. Although
an isolated shower is possible in the southern mountains this
afternoon. Temperatures will be running above average today and
wind gusts could reach 20-30 mph in spots. Tonight the next
system makes landfall in California, but the associated jet out
ahead of the wave arrives first. Daytime mixing will bring these
strong winds down to the surface tomorrow with gusts reaching
30-50 mph across the western half of the forecast area. Moisture
will arrive in the afternoon, but with the lack of dynamics
most of the forcing will be orographic. Look for showers to
develop over the high terrain in the afternoon especially on the
southwest facing slopes. Models are still showing the potential
for enough instability, mainly over the southwest portions of
the area, for showers to leave the terrain and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. In this regime any of these showers or storms
could enhance the wind gusts.

The cold front and strong lift arrives tomorrow night, so expect an
increase in the coverage and rates. Moderate to heavy snow showers
are expected in the mountains with rain in the valleys initially.
The high-res models are showing a broad elongated band of showers
along the front that moves through the area from west to east
sunset through sunrise. The combination of wind and snowfall
rates could result in moderate travel impacts in the mountains.
The front will drive snow levels down, so accumulating snow is
possible in the high valleys by Friday morning. On Thursday
afternoon snow levels look to be around 7 kft and will abruptly
drop to 4 kft behind the front. One uncertainty is how much
precip lingers in the lower valleys after the change over to
snow. Regardless, if there is a quick change over snow amounts
are expected to only be a few inches. The relatively warm
ground temperatures could limit accumulation as well. Flow
turns westerly behind the front and deep moisture sticks around
Friday morning so snow showers continue. By the afternoon
coverage and rates should be on the decrease relative to the
frontal band. Winds stay rather gusty during the day Friday so
blowing snow and travels issues are still possible especially in
the mountains. In general, most of the mountain ranges will
receive 4-12 inches. Some of the higher valleys could get 1-3
inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

A lull in the precipitation is expected Friday night with light snow
kicking back in Saturday as a northwesterly flow regime kicks in. A
combination of orographic lift and jet dynamics could team up for a
few more inches of light snowfall on Saturday before high pressure
builds in on Sunday drying things out. Gusty afternoon winds
continue through the weekend, especially in the mountains.

High pressure doesn`t stay in place for long. Another long-wave
trough moves across the western CONUS early next week. There`s
notable difference between model families regarding the timing and
strength of this wave, but it looks like it could be a rinse and
repeat of the incoming system with widespread mountain snowfall and
gusty winds. The biggest difference at this time is that the
moisture feed for next week`s system which could limit snowfall
amounts. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected today. There will be a mix of clouds
and gusty winds this afternoon due to a system approaching from
the west.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday
     for COZ004-010-013.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday
     for COZ009-012.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to noon MDT Friday
     for COZ017>019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to noon MDT Friday
     for UTZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to noon MDT Friday
     for UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT