156
FXUS65 KGJT 162334
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
534 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon along the CO/WY border.

- The passage of a cold front is bringing cooler temperatures to
  the region. A Freeze Warning is in effect for many valleys
  from midnight tonight until tomorrow morning to account for
  these cold temperatures.

- The next system drops down from the northwest early next week,
  potentially bringing scattered rain and mountain snow showers
  to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Satellite imagery shows that the low pressure system that has
been impacting our region is now centered over eastern Wyoming.
A cold front associated with this system has moved through the
area, leading to much cooler, well below average daytime high
temperatures. Anomalously dry air has moved across the region
everywhere except for near the Wyoming border. In this area
where moisture lingers a few isolated showers or thunderstorms
are possible through the next hour or two, but so far this
afternoon precipitation has really been struggling to develop.
With the drier air in place, overnight cloud cover will be
reduced. This will allow for strong radiative cooling overnight,
dropping temperatures to below freezing for many areas,
including valleys where Freeze Warnings are in place. With
drier, northwesterly flow in place tomorrow, the forecast looks
pretty similar to today. Expect mostly clear skies, and slightly
warmer, but still below normal high temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Northwesterly flow ahead of the invading upper ridge will keep
things dry and on the cool side of climatology Saturday. The
relatively zonal polar jet ebbs northward Sunday with a weak
transitory ridge working overhead. This will keep things mild here
on the West Slope, with temperatures near normal across the region
Sunday afternoon. A shallow trough works across the Intermountain
West Monday. This little clipper system is advertising some light
precipitation north of the Colorado River on Monday, including some
light snow for the Park Range and the Flat Tops. Cold air looks
pretty unimpressive at this point, so I wouldn`t make any bets on
snow. But, some light rain is probably realistic, along with cooler
temperatures across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Monday.
The shallow cold pool won`t register much of a dip south of the
Colorado River. Tuesday looks like another quiet transition day with
temperatures slightly cooler behind Monday`s wave. Models begin to
show some discrepancies Wednesday and Thursday with the evolution of
a cutoff low lifting into the Great Basin. This feature sends some
additional precipitation across the Four Corners and into our
southern mountains. Still plenty of time to see the model evolution.
Good news is that it looks like mild fall weather continues.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Winds will
follow terrain-driven flows with some sites gusting up to 20
knots Friday afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-020>023.
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT