665
FXUS65 KGJT 301800
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this
  afternoon and evening.

- Storms will be capable of producing localized flash flooding
  over burn scars and steep terrain, gusty winds and small hail.

- Record heat and predominately dry conditions move in for the
  weekend and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

LAST OF THE MOISTURE:

The shortwave that moved through yesterday has caused flow to become
westerly. That change in flow has allowed dry air to start to filter
into the area, which should result in less coverage and showers and
storms in the afternoon. Despite that we are expecting convection to
develop in the mainly along and north of I-70 this afternoon and
early evening with more isolated coverage south of the interstate.
Showers should form over the higher terrain and then move
eastward over the adjacent valleys. It appears there will be
enough instability and moisture to support the potential for
heavy rain, small hail and perhaps gusty winds. Tomorrow more
dry air filters into the area to the point that only the Divide
a southern San Juans have the chance for showers and storms.


HOT AND DRY:

Over the next several days high pressure is expected to drift over
the desert southwest. This will bring warmer temperatures and a
drier airmass to the region. All of that results in record high
temperatures this weekend and into next week for many locations.
Also, localized critical fire weather is possible through that
period. Winds speeds in the afternoon may reach 25 mph in spots with
minimum humidity in the teens and single digits. Afternoon showers
may still be possible along the Divide, but elsewhere stays dry
through mid next week. On Monday, a trough tracks over the northern
tier of the country, which may suppress the high pressure slightly.
Beyond that temperatures still look well above normal and the high
shifts to our southeast. This may bring moisture back into the area
that could support afternoon storms once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon, mainly over the northern and central the
mountains. Valley airfields will likely face some gusty outflow
winds and brief downpours (lower confidence) as these storms
decay. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ006.
UT...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ022.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ024.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
     UTZ027-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT