692
FXUS65 KGJT 211743
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1043 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light mountain snow continues this morning then tapers off
  this afternoon. Significant accumulations are not expected.

- A warmup begins on Saturday as temperatures above climatology
  return to the region with clear skies and ample sunshine.

- An unsettled pattern across the northern tier of the CONUS
  could bring additional mountain snow early in the week, while
  high pressure is expected to push temperatures up well above
  climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

A low pressure center parked over the Colorado Springs area is
pushing an easterly wave back across the mountains this morning.
Light snow continues on our Central Mountains and to a lesser extent
some of the Park Range, Flat Tops, and Elkheads. Steamboat has
managed to accumulate a few inches overnight, while Vail is
nearing 5 inches at this hour. The moisture supply is getting
stripped out as a dry slot works across the Southwest and noses
into the Texas Panhandle. A pool of remnant moisture over the
West Slope has kept a blanket of cloud cover over much of the
CWA. This is keeping morning lows on the warm side of
expectations that were predicated on clearing skies this
morning. Light snow will continue on the Northern and Central
mountains of Colorado this morning, especially on favored
aspects in the path of the wraparound flow. Additional
accumulations are expected to be insignificant. Eastern Utah and
Western Colorado should clear out of the cloud cover sometime
this morning/early afternoon, but the mountains will hold onto
residual cloud cover as moisture scours out. Skies will begin to
clear out this evening and later tonight behind this system and
temperatures in the Upper Yampa and Gunnison Basins will drop
into the single digits with light winds and efficient
radiational cooling. High pressure begins to build back over The
West and clear skies, subsidence, and light winds should add up
to a rather mild day on Saturday. Our low desert elevations
should see temps well into the 50`s, with the mountain valleys
recovering back into the upper 30`s and 40`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

A weak mid-level short wave trough in northwest flow moves over the
forecast area Saturday night. However, models continued to indicate
moisture will be insufficient for this feature to generate showers.
Dry northwest flow continues Sunday, but by late Sunday night a
modest moisture tap arrives bringing a chance for snow showers over
the Elkhead, Park and Flat Top Mountains Monday. The feed dries up
Monday night bringing a lull in shower activity. However, another
short wave in the northwesterlies clips the northern and central
mountains on Tuesday bringing a better chance for showers to those
northern ranges. Lingering moisture behind this disturbance may
bring additional showers to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, though models were a bit mixed on this. However, models
were in better agreement Wednesday night and Thursday all depicting
a return to dry conditions in continued northwest flow.

As mentioned in previous discussions, the forecast area will
experience a warming trend through Tuesday with highs reaching
levels some 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms early next week.
The passage of the disturbance on Tuesday discussed previously
brings a little cooling on Wednesday with temperatures warming back
up on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1043 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

Conditions are beginning to improve at most TAF sites though
lingering low clouds and fog are keeping localized MVFR/IFR
conditions in place at KVEL and KMTJ. Forecast will be
optimistic all site will be VFR by mid afternoon though some
sunshine may allow more clouds to pop and lead to ILS conditions
at some airfields. The big challenge will the reformation or
fog and or stratus behind this system as we clear out tonight
and PBL conditions remain moist. No confidence attm but did hint
at KGUC for now. KEGE...KRIL...KHDN...KVEL could all be in line
for low overnight stratus and will update as confidence
increases.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT