217
FXUS65 KGJT 140222
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
822 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tomorrow the chances for showers and storms increase. Very
  little rain if any is expected, but lightning starts and
  gusty outflows are possible.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected through tomorrow then
  we go back closer to normal.

- Smoke will continue to affect areas in the vicinity of active
  wildfires, reducing visibility and air quality at times.

- Chances for showers increase on Friday and some places could
  get measurable rain. This trend continues into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Currently there is a high pressure centered over northern Arizona
leaving us under westerly flow aloft. Conditions remain hot and dry
with a few locations dealing with gusty winds this afternoon. Large
wildfires in the CWA are currently producing decent smoke plumes,
but they seem to be dispersing better than the past few days. Still
expect some smoke to move down and settle into drainages overnight.
Tomorrow a trough works into the Great Basin, which pushes the high
towards Texas. This opens the door to moisture to our south.
Although the moisture is not deep and cloud bases will be high.
As a result little rainfall is expected from any showers and
storms that develop in the afternoon on the higher terrain. Most
of the convection will struggle to leave the higher elevations.
High cloud bases and large dewpoint spreads will promote gusty
outflow winds perhaps upwards of 50 mph. These outflows could
cause issues for the current wildfires or any new ones that
start from lightning. Showers could work into the Four Corners
region tomorrow night, but again very little if any rain is
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

By Friday the models are in good agreement with the high pressure
moving east over Oklahoma as the trough deepens along the Pacific
Coast throwing the door open for moisture to move into the region
from the south. There is a lot of uncertainty on the depth of this
moisture. Current though is that it will be more mid-level with the
lower atmosphere remaining dry resulting in mostly isolated to
scattered dry thunderstorms with strong outflow winds across the
higher terrain. Wetting rain is most likely over the Colorado
mountains along the divide with dry lightning more across the far
Western Colorado and eastern Utah. For this reason, we have issued a
Fire Weather Watch for the CWA due to the risk of dry lightning and
strong outflow winds, but due to the uncertainty, will wait until
tomorrow to determine if upgrading to a Red Flag Warning is
warranted.

The eastward movement of the high continues through Saturday into
the Mississippi Valley as the trough to the west broadens
across the Western States increasing the southwesterly flow of
moisture into eastern Utah and Western Colorado. Look for
another round of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Again, due to the high
uncertainty, held off on issuing a Fire Weather Watch for
Saturday until we see how Friday`s storms play out. Afternoon
convective activity drops off to mostly isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the divide Sunday into the next
week as the southwesterly flow pulls drier air off the Eastern
Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Few to scattered mid-level clouds are occurring across most of
the region with minimal impacts expected. The greatest concern
this evening will be gusty winds from thunderstorms near KVEL.
Tomorrow afternoon, gusty outflow winds up to 25 kts will
become more widespread with an increased chance for showers and
thunderstorms. KASE, KTEX, and KGUC will see the greatest
chances for rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

All of the data is pointing to it has been one of
the hottest, driest and windiest periods on record for this time
of year. Tomorrow there is a chance for dry thunderstorms, but the
coverage of lightning may be isolated. Although any showers that
develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds with a
good portion of the area below 15 percent RH in the afternoon. On
Friday the coverage of showers and storms increases. Chance of
wetting rain is possible for the higher elevations, while dry
lightning and gusty outflows winds may still be possible for lower
elevations. Chances for afternoon showers continues into the
weekend, but we need to see what happens tomorrow and Friday to
access the threats.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday for
     COZ200>203-205-207-290>295.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday for
     UTZ485>487-490-491.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for UTZ485>487-490-491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT