727
FXUS65 KGJT 201141
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
541 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures will impact susceptible vegetation in
  the low elevation valleys this morning and the southwest
  Colorado valleys tonight into Monday morning.

- Temperatures rebound this coming week with a warm up expected
  behind the Spring snow to the tune of 5 to 10 degrees above
  normal.

- Breezy conditions will occur Monday afternoon with critical
  fire weather conditions possible in some areas where fuels are
  critical. Potential fire weather concerns become more
  widespread late this week into the weekend ahead of a low
  pressure trough moving into the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Skies are beginning to clear out for the most part early this
morning following the departing low pressure trough that brought
some beneficial mountain snow and valley rain the last couple
days. The low is currently over the Texas Panhandle with our CWA
in a northwest flow between systems. Clouds are encroaching on
our eastern Utah counties as a weak shortwave disturbance cuts
through Utah. Some remnant low clouds and moisture left behind
from the previous system is hanging on along the Divide
mountains and adjacent higher valleys. In fact, enough low level
moisture remains as skies clear out from recent precipitation
to produce some areas of dense fog across the Animas River Basin
and San Juan River Basin. Visibilities are down to quarter mile
at times at Durango and Pagosa Springs airports and are in the
vicinity looking at webcams. It`s not very widespread but enough
to warrant Dense Fog Advisories for COZ022 and COZ023 through 9
am MDT this morning. Temperatures in the lower valleys where
vegetation is susceptible have dropped into the upper 20s to low
30s so the Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 am MDT this
morning as well.

Clouds will increase across the north ahead of the passing
shortwave today which may generate some light showers over the
northern mountains but not much else. Temperatures today will be
about 5 or so degrees warmer than yesterday with highs ending
up a few degrees below normal. With the clearing skies expected
tonight, southwest Colorado valleys look primed to drop into the
20s for overnight lows so upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze
Warning for those zones. The rest of the area will stay mostly
above freezing so did not need to expand. We will stay in a
pretty zonal flow through early this coming week with another
shortwave trough moving across the north Monday afternoon. This
one is a bit more robust with an 80 kt jet streak providing some
forcing for isolated to scattered storms across the north. The
gradient increases a bit as well so breezy winds look to occur
with gusts 25 to 35 mph. Portions of west- central Colorado
where fuels are critical have potential to see elevated critical
fire weather conditions. Therefore, decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for Monday afternoon and evening for CO Fire Zone
203 below 7000 feet and 292. The warmup also continues with
highs near to a few degrees above normal by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The overall trend through the coming week will be warming
temperatures each day with highs rising towards 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Non zero precipitation chances will remain in the
forecast for much of our terrain west of the Continental Divide
each afternoon this week, thanks to westerly orographics.
Remnant moisture hangs around too, thanks to melting snowpack
and some weak Pacific moisture working through the base of the
trough. Snow levels stick to the alpine through the week, as
temperatures slowly ratchet upward each day, culminating Friday
with the warmest values of the period, when desert valleys will
be in the 80s and the mountain valleys in the 60`s. Late week,
models begin to advertise another pattern shift along a PACNW
low coming ashore. This will send upper level flow back to the
southwest and push temperatures up and relative humidities down.
Some gusty winds ahead of the trough could lead to critical
fire weather conditions in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. This
will hinge on fuel susceptibility, and climatologically within
the realm of possible scenarios for late April under an
approaching trough around the Four Corners.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

BKN to OVC skies will linger through the morning across
northwest Colorado with low stratus over portions of the
southwest Colorado valleys including KDRO where areas of dense
fog will persist through 15Z. Elsewhere, FEW to SCT clouds
remain with VFR conditions. Expect VFR to prevail after 15Z and
through the afternoon with breezy conditions at times with gusts
20 to 25 mph. Skies clear by this evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Westerly winds will increase Monday afternoon ahead of a
shortwave disturbance. Breezy afternoon winds with gusts 25 to
35 mph along with relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent across
portions of west-central Colorado, will lead to potential for
critical fire weather conditions where fuels are considered
critical. Therefore, issued a Fire Weather Watch for CO Fire
Zones 203 below 7000 feet and 292 for Monday afternoon and
evening. The next chance for more widespread critical fire
weather conditions returns Friday and Saturday as southwest flow
increases ahead of a Pacific trough.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for COZ203-292.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ006-007-011-
     020>022.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for
     COZ021-022.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ022-023.
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ022-024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MDA