621
FXUS65 KGJT 062354
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
554 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Convection continues this afternoon as an upper level trough
  and surface cold front move through.

- Heavy rain, gusty winds, some possibly large hail and frequent
  lightning are the main concerns with localized flooding
  possible. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially
  across northwest Colorado.

- Drier and warmer conditions return this weekend and continue
  into early next week with afternoon storms favoring the high
  terrain and more of a gusty wind threat than wetting rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

As expected, convection started firing across the CWA earlier this
morning with some weak cells reporting pea-sized hail. Convection
will continue through the afternoon and early evening hours as an
upper level trough and surface cold front work on the available
moisture that remains in the atmosphere. SPC`s RAP forecast is
showing some wind shear over northern portions of the CWA later this
afternoon so the possibility certainly exists for some stronger,
longer lived storms, to fire. Anomalous moisture remains across the
area so heavy rainers will be a concern again today with hail and
plenty of lightning expected. Some gusty outflows are also
possible. Despite the best lift being over our northern zones,
daytime heating and instability will allow some storms to fire over
our southern zones as well though we do expect the strongest
convection to stay up north. Models have been fairly consistent with
the strongest convection occurring along and ahead of the cold front
from around 3PM through 6PM. If the HRRR and NAMNEST are to be
believed, this line of storms should be along the I-70 corridor
over the next few hours...just in time for the evening commute.
After 6PM, models show a definitive downturn in convection and
by midnight, all precip should be over.

For Saturday, northwesterly flow behind the cold front will usher in
drier ir to the area. This will bring plenty of sunny skies to the
valleys and a few clouds over the higher terrain. High temperatures
will rebound to more normal early June values, if not slightly
above. A pleasant spring day expected after the last few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Ridging aloft begins to build over the Pacific Northwest and move
towards our region this weekend. With this pattern change no major
sources of upper-level support are expected to pass through the
area, which should generally limit PoPs outside of afternoon
heating. Through the long term atmospheric moisture looks to remain
elevated as moisture continuously advects into our CWA. PWAT
anomalies will not be as great as they have been the past few days,
but should fluctuate between moderately above normal values (~125-
175% of normal). This consistent moisture will support afternoon
convection each day, primarily over the high terrain. High
temperatures, which have been below normal, will be 5-10 degrees
above normal through the long term with ridging building aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will drift south this evening along I-70
and on the terrain of southwest Colorado and southeast Utah. A
few of these storms are producing damaging hail and gusty winds.
Storms will quickly diminish around 2100 MDT and VFR conditions
are expected overnight. Quieter conditions are expected on
Saturday with a few storms possible along the southern Divide in
the afternoon. Afternoon winds will gust 15-25 mph around the
region.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT