049
FXUS65 KGJT 230413
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
913 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ridging across the desert southwest will keep most moisture
  and precipitation to our north for the next several days.

- A system to our north may just clip the northern mountains
  Sunday into Monday bringing an inch or two of snow there.

- A second system Tuesday will bring another inch or two of snow
  to the northern mountains and a dusting to the central mountains.

- High temperatures will increase day by day reaching close to
  10 degrees above seasonal values Monday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Models agree for the most part with satellite imagery placing the
low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest that will be shedding
shortwaves over the next few days that will do little more than
brush the northern mountains. The first of these shortwaves drops
southeast across eastern Utah and Western Colorado this evening into
the overnight with an associated band of high clouds, but can`t rule
out a stray flurry on the Park Range. Look for another cool morning
Sunday, a few degrees warmer that this morning in most areas, but
about the same for the Gunnison Valley. A ridge building into the
Desert Southwest and clear, sunny skies tomorrow will warm the
region about five degrees over today before clouds move in from the
northwest through the afternoon and evening with the next shortwave
system. This system Sunday night will pull some of the atmospheric
river (AR) moisture south to bring light snow showers to the Elkhead
and Park Mountains Sunday night into Monday. The higher peaks could
see a couple inches total new snow from this shortwave, but most of
the higher terrain will only see a skiff to maybe an inch of snow.
With the ridge building in from the southwest and the blanket of
clouds overnight, the morning lows across the region Monday will
warm five to ten degrees over the Sunday lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Unfortunately for the snowpack this extended forecast continues to
look on the drier and warmer side of climatology. There will be
brief chances for the mountians to pick up some light precipitation
through the week but nothing to really hang a hat on. Broad ridging
across the SW CONUS will keep the storm track off to our North with
upper jet driven moisture just brushing the far northern mountians
Monday into Tuesday. Under this mild regime high snow levels and
time of year look to limit these amounts further to just an inch or
two over the Park Range through this time. Meanwhile temperatures to
start out the new week will be running mainly 10 to 15 degrees above
with the exception of the snow covered valleys who will be running
slightly cooler. A stronger systems enters the upstream flow on
Tuesday and after cross the Northern Rockies drops through eastern
Great Basin and Central Rockies for the mid-week period. QG forcing
and moisture advection is moderate at the very best with this system
and model QPF output is limited again to amounts up to an inch over
the northern divide mountains. Moisture is often the variable that
models struggle with so this could change over the next few
runs/days and will be monitored for trends. Strong ridging follows
this wave it is forced to amplify over the Intermountain West by the
arrival of a closed low to the SoCal Coastal area. So after a
slightly cooler day on Wednesday as the wave passes...temperatures
will rebound back to well above normal to end out the week. As for
the upstream low models are in surprising agreement today taking it
mainly across the Desert SW and 4 Corners through the weekend. The
southern mountains would get a slight brushing of moisture in this
scenario and not the much needed direct hit as some of the models
had just 24 hours ago. Beyond this ensemble clusters hint at a
trough-ier pattern setting up across the West as we go into early
next week so there is some growing hope for getting water back into
the equation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 912 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with light terrain
driven winds and a few high clouds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT