958
FXUS65 KGJT 141204
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
604 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected to be more isolated Friday. A few strong
  thunderstorms capable of localized heavy rainfall and small
  hail are still possible though, primarily over Colorado`s high
  terrain.

- Terrain-driven showers and thunderstorms remain possible
  through next week.

- Temperatures begin to increase again through the weekend and
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD AND HAIL CONCERNS FRIDAY:

Southwesterly flow around the western edge of a broad high
pressure system continues Friday and through the weekend. Though
Thursday marked the expected peak in moisture, this slowly-
changing pattern will maintain daily chances of precipitation
for the foreseeable future, though storm impacts are anticipated
to diminish.

Though the last two days saw appreciable midday instability for
this region of the country, storms have often been unable to
maintain strength for long durations due to lacking shear and
dense clouds quickly filling in during afternoons. The story
could be similar Friday. At this moment, models are consistent
with each other in lesser cloud cover existing Friday morning
over the high terrain near the Divide, with denser cloud cover
residing in eastern Utah. This should leave the door open for
another day of increasing CAPE through the late morning over
much of western Colorado. Also working in the storms` favor is
the potential for marginally increased shear as a mild jet
streak works its way through the southwesterly flow. On the
other hand, moisture is on the decline, as mentioned before,
with PWAT`s falling below 150% of normal for much of the region.
All things considered, most stronger storms capable of small
hail and localized heavy rainfall (or the flash flooding
concerns that come with it) are expected to stay confined to
Colorado`s high terrain. Unless areas near or west of the CO-UT
border see mostly sunny morning skies Friday, the likely storm
mode for these regions will be stratiform rain showers. These
storms would still be capable of producing wetting rains while
minimizing hydrologic concerns, but a stray stronger storm or
two should not be ruled out just yet. All vulnerable areas
(especially including burn scars) across the entire CWA will
still be at risk of flash flooding or debris flows Friday in
spite of the more localized nature of storm coverage.

WET WEATHER PERSISTS:

Even as moisture returns to near-normal through the weekend and
early next week, southwesterly flow will support daily chances
of precipitation focused around the mountains. Lacking upper-
level support through the mid-week will likely mean storm
impacts will be on the milder side, but keep up-to-date over the
coming days for more details. Model guidance diverges
significantly by Wednesday, but there is some potential for an
uptick in activity late next week as a shortwave develops over
the western CONUS. Without model agreement, uncertainty leaves
this potential system as nothing more than an interesting
possibility on the horizon, and any speculation on details will
have to wait until we see model guidance converge. Otherwise,
look for temperatures to begin to rise again with highs expected
to return to ~5 degrees above normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Overnight precipitation has ended with the exception of some
lingering light shower activity near the San Juan Mountains.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin
around 18Z and continue through the evening. Primary concerns
with this activity are lightning and brief drops to MVFR
conditions if stronger thunderstorms move over TAF sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Gusts up to 25 kts are
possible at a few sites this afternoon, especially where there
are nearby showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT