655
FXUS65 KGJT 032357
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
557 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each
  afternoon through Thursday, mainly for the San Juans.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of northeast UT
  and northwest CO for Thursday (1PM-7PM) due to gusty winds and
  low RH.

- Hot, dry, windy conditions will develop again Saturday leading
  to another day of widespread critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The current upper level flow includes ridging over the Central
Plains and a weak closed low over Baja. The counterclockwise
rotation with this low is allowing moisture to be advected into the
southern part of our CWA, favoring the San Juans. This will allow
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
through Thursday for that area. A few isolated storms may be
possible (20%) farther north along the central mountains as well.
Most of the area will dry out by Thursday while winds also become
gusty. This will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions
Thursday, particularly for northeastern Utah and northwestern
Colorado. See the fire weather section for more information on this.
Beyond Thursday, daytime highs begin to surge to 10-15 degrees above
normal. Your water bottle is going to become your new best friend as
we hold onto this heat through the weekend, stay hydrated!

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND:

As we move towards the weekend, the low that has been festering over
the Gulf of Alaska will begin to drop into the PacNW. This low
appears to pack a punch as pressure gradient contours associated
with it appear to be tightly packed. This will introduce southwest
flow aloft which will eventually cause gusty winds to mix down to
the surface Saturday. The current forecast depicts gusts up to
35mph, with some locally higher gusts possible. Hence, another
day of critical fire weather conditions will exist. Saturday
appears to be the hottest day this week with highs just below
100 in the Grand Valley and parts of eastern Utah. Sunday looks
to cool by a few degrees, but continues to be hot and dry for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms will continue along the central
and southern Colorado Divide with most activity on the eastern
side through about 02Z. Look for another round of isolated to
scattered shower with a few embedded thunderstorms over the
higher terrain of Colorado after 18Z. Otherwise look for west to
northwest winds with a few gusts to 20 kts through 02Z, becoming
light terrain driven drainage winds overnight. Westerly winds
with a few gusts to 20-25 kts will pick up after 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Tight pressure gradient contours will make for a gusty afternoon
Thursday, particularly for northeast Utah and northwest Colorado.
The past two GJT soundings have showed mixing of 500-mb winds down
towards the surface and we are expecting a similar pattern for
Thursday. Gusts as high as 30mph are expected, with locally higher
gusts possible. Relative humidities will also be below 15% for most
of the areas seeing critical fire weather conditions. Hence, decided
to issue a Red Flag Warning for UTZ486, UTZ487, COZ200, and COZ202
(1PM-7PM). As temperatures begin to surge this weekend and gusty
winds return, another day of widespread critical fire weather
conditions are expected Saturday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ200-202.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ486-487.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT