737
FXUS65 KGJT 231733
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1033 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mild conditions continue today, with a round of snow
  showers tonight and tomorrow for the northern mountains.

- Another weak wave brings some light snow to the northern
  mountains Tuesday. Minor accumulations expected.

- A brief cooldown Wednesday behind the Tuesday disturbance will
  precede another significant warmup to close out the week.

- A pattern shift with another potential storm arrives late
  Saturday and early Sunday next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

A positively tilted ridge sits along a SOCAL-Northern Plains axis
this morning ahead of a PACNW wave working inland. Skies remain
mostly clear here on the West Slope and morning lows are reflecting
such. The ridge axis will move overhead this afternoon and light
winds, subsidence, and plenty of sunshine will push afternoon
temperatures 5 degrees above climatology across the CWA. Areas
approaching the Continental Divide will see stronger winds aloft mix
down today and tomorrow with gusts to around 30 mph up there. A
frontal boundary anchored east to west across the northern tier
states will settle southward this afternoon as the ridge collapses
over us. This will usher in some cloud cover by sunset for most of
northeast UT and northwest CO. This comes as a batch of new Pacific
moisture arrives to the CWA. Weak forcing will leave orographics to
do all of the work on any precipitation. Some light snow is expected
on the Elkheads and Park Range this evening into Monday, with
perhaps an additional dusting southward on the Flat Tops and Gores.
Snow levels remain high enough to keep much of the snow confined to
the alpine. This should be enough for 1 to 5 inches on the mountain
tops, with the Park Range taking the lion`s share of this. Most of
this will fall late Sunday night and early Monday morning. Snow will
taper off quickly Monday afternoon as moisture gets stripped out and
temperatures warm even further. Afternoon highs on Monday are
expected to inch upward of 10 degrees above climatology. The gusty
winds along the Divide will taper some Monday too, as winds aloft
slacken.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Ridging will break down Monday night as a closed low comes ashore
across the PacNW. The closed low will eventually become an open wave
and while the best energy and precip will stay over Idaho and
Montana, a shortwave is forecast to move across northern portions of
the CWA during the day on Tuesday out ahead of the initial wave.
While models are indicating some moisture associated with this wave,
forcing is lacking outside of some minor orographic lift. The end
result will be a whopping inch of snow for the Park Range, and
lesser amounts for the Flat Tops and central mountains. Supporting
this wave will be a jet streak of around 90kts and some of these
stronger winds are expected to mix down to the surface Tuesday,
generally north of the I-70 corridor. As of now, wind gusts of 30 to
maybe even 40 mph are possible for much of the higher terrain of
eastern Utah and western Colorado and also the northern valleys as
mentioned.

Once that wave passes, another ridge starts to build in to our west
but we`ll still remain under the influence of a trough as a weak
piece of energy moves through during the day Wednesday. Might see
some snow showers or flurries as this wave moves through for the
northern mountains. The ridging out west moves overhead during the
day Thursday and by Friday, a closed low starts moving across
southern California. The deterministic EC and GFS are in fairly good
agreement with the strength and location of this low pressure
through Saturday night. After that, models diverge with the GFS
bringing the low into our CWA while the EC keeps a more easterly
trajectory.

Outside of the light mountain snow, the rest of the CWA will see
plenty of sunshine for much of the long term period. High
temperatures are expected to remain well above normal during the
time period with a minor cool down on Wednesday before warm
temperatures move back in Thursday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1032 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

High to mid level clouds will be passing through this afternoon
with cigs lowering to possible ILS conditions toward the TAF
sites with markers above 4kft agl. Otherwise light winds and VFR
conditions will be in place at the TAF sites.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT