315
FXUS65 KGJT 020441
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
941 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold overnight lows expected especially for the lower
  valleys with snow cover.

- More snow moves in Tuesday and continues through Thursday. 4
  to 8 inches of new snow looks possible with this next system.

- Another system may move in for the weekend keeping unsettled
  weather in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

As expected, plenty of sunny skies can be found across the area
as cooler air continues to move in from the northwest. Efficient
radiational cooling tonight will bring the coldest overnight
lows of the season so far, especially for those low valleys that
has seen some snow. Having said that, increasing clouds up
north may keep overnight lows in check. This benign weather
will be short- lived as the next system moves in tomorrow
morning and brings another round of snowfall to the region. An
upper level trough will approach the area Tuesday and ahead of
this trough, a weak impulse will bring some light snow to the
northern valleys and mountains. Through the evening hours look
for 1 to maybe 2 inches of snow. There might be a brief lull
Tuesday evening before the trough and surface cold front moves
through. This starts late Tuesday night and continues into
Wednesday. More on that below. This does look to be a drawn out
event with only an inch or two of snow every 6 hours. After
discussion with BOU and PUB, will hold off on any advisories for
now. The heaviest snowfall does look to occur along the front
Wednesday morning so still have some time to hammer out the
finer details.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

On Wednesday the midlevel trough passes over the region pushing
another cold front through the area. This lift will support
scattered snow showers and perhaps rain in the lower valleys in
Utah. By the afternoon steep lapse rates and surface heating will
result in orographic snow showers in the mountains. By Wednesday
evening the trough and front lift out over the Plains causing the
showers to diminish. Most locations will be dry by late Thursday
morning. Temperatures will warm a few degrees ahead of the front and
cool a few degrees behind it. Snow amounts are still uncertain, but
in general the mountains are looking at 4-8 inches with locally
higher amounts upwards of 12 inches. Some valleys could get a few
inches as well. Like previous systems guidance seems to be under
forecasting QPF, so these totals could go up with time. Also, like
the last system there is a potential for instability and banding,
which can enhance snowfall locally. A brief lull ends on Friday as a
plume of moisture streams in from the northwest. This means another
round of orographic snow showers for the northern and central
mountains Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 936 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Dense mid-level clouds have begun to move in from the north
tonight ahead of a low pressure system. Snowfall is expected to
degrade conditions as early as sunrise. The most significant
impacts are expected at KHDN, but KASE, KEGE, KRIL, and KTEX
could all see periods of MVFR conditions throughout the next 24
hours. Additionally, low cigs could reach ILS breakpoints for
the majority of terminals (aside from KDRO, KVEL, and KCNY)
this afternoon. Mountain obscuration and mechanical turbulence
will also be of concern.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT