174
FXUS65 KGJT 050507
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1107 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing disturbance to our north brings winds up this
  afternoon in northwest Colorado where critical fire weather
  conditions are expected.

- Near record highs and dry conditions continue into the weekend.

- High temperatures may drop a few degrees heading into next
  week but will remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows an upper-level
shortwave trough beginning to move into the Pacific Northwest. The
progressive trough will continue to slide eastward across the
northwest into the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow. Locally,
this system will result in gusty winds across northeast Utah and
northwest Colorado. Wind gusts up to 25-30 mph will pair with
the ongoing warm and dry conditions resulting in elevated to
critical fire weather conditions today and tomorrow. With the
northern system exiting to the east tomorrow, fire weather
concerns will become more localized.

Aside from fire weather concerns, conditions will remain dry for the
start of the weekend with more record-breaking fall warmth. Cloud
coverage increases tonight into tomorrow morning as the
aformentioned system passes by but otherwise conditions will remain
status quo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

High pressure parked over the Great Basin Sunday will keep us at
near record high temperatures once again. Vaguely northwest flow
might lend a hand with keeping us below the record, with 84 in the
forecast for Grand Junction Sunday and a record of 85 to beat. With
9 days of record highs in the books, persistence is probably a
better hand to play against the house. Models are hinting at a
shortwave feature working ashore and sending height falls and some
upper level moisture in by Monday afternoon. This will likely just
be some cloud cover to hopefully mute the sun a bit. High
temperatures near record values remain in the forecast through the
week. Pinched off shortwave energy continues Monday and Tuesday with
a potential Pacific moisture tap working in on the southwesterly
flow aloft. Deterministic models are trying to paint some showers on
terrain features in the Wasatch to our west and on our Uintas
Tuesday. These, otherwise insignificant, showers bare mentioning for
being the first to show up in awhile. A bigger wave works ashore
Wednesday and pushes additional moisture into the region that could
result in some showers across the Colorado mountains Wednesday
evening and again Thursday. This will be a rather weak moisture
push. Some more cloud cover could, if nothing else, help with those
record high temperatures. Model agreement really gets sideways
Friday as GFS tries to drop a significant low into the Great Basin,
not unlike the system that brought us measurable mountain snow 2
weeks ago. Whereas, the EC is keeping a broad ridge across the
region. The optimist in me thinks models are displaying uncertainty
in an expected pattern shift. The pessimist tells me the model hangs
its hat on climatology and hasn`t given into the perpetual ridge
refusing to budge. Waiting on seasonal shift can be a slow process,
but shorter days are here and we know what comes next.
Patience...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be
light terrain driven breezes overnight shifting westerly by
about 18Z gusting 15 to 25 mph through the afternoon. Low-Level
Wind Shear is possible overnight across the northern mountain areas
to include KHDN and KASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Hot and dry conditions continue this afternoon with gusty winds
added to the mix across portions of northeast Utah and
northwest Colorado. Much of this area will see elevated to
critical fire weather conditions during peak heating hours. Wind
gusts greater than 25 mph are primarily favored in northwest
Colorado where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM
this evening. Localized critical fire weather conditions remain
a threat over northern Colorado again tomorrow.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...