111
FXUS65 KGJT 032325
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
425 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional snow accumulations are expected in the mountains
  through tonight, with the greatest accumulations expected in
  the San Juans.

- Brief ridging builds in Thursday bringing pleasant weather
  with below normal highs.

- Unsettled weather remains in the forecast Friday and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

A thick layer of cloud cover across the CWA can be seen on
satellite imagery. This cloud cover, and the ongoing snowfall,
is a product of a trough that is propagating through the Four
Corners region. Lift from synoptic forcing that is associated
with the trough, in combination with lingering atmospheric
moisture, will support snowfall through tonight. Most of the
additional snow accumulations is expected to occur in the San
Juans, but some accumulating snow may still occur in the central
and northern mountains of Colorado. An additional 4 to 8 inches
is expected in the San Juan Mountains, with locally higher
amounts possible.

Tomorrow morning the trough axis will be to our southeast, and
anomalously dry air will move into the area. Thus, snowfall
from this system will end in the early morning hours due to the
loss of forcing and moisture. With dry air in place, quiet
weather is expected through the day Tuesday. High temperatures
will remain below normal through the short term. Unsettled
winter weather looks to return in the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Models remain in fairly good agreement for a longer period of
unsettled weather, especially for the northern mountains starting
Friday and persisting through the weekend. An area of high pressure
is expected to setup off the West Coast and as this occurs, the jet
stream will ride up and over said ridge. The jet will have a
northwest to southwest orientation, taking aim at the northern
mountains. As impulses of energy move through the mean flow,
accumulating snow will begin over the northern mountains, Flat Tops,
and also the central mountains. Favorable northwest, orographic flow
will keep snow going for the northern mountains as these impulses
move off. Ensembles and deterministic models are showing the same
solutions so confidence is increasing that the first `big` snow for
the northern mountains is on its way. Monday and Tuesday, the high
out west shifts a little east, just enough to cause wind flow to
become more westerly, shutting off the orographic lift, leaving a
few showers to contend with but little else. Temperatures will run
right around normal, if not a little above Saturday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 421 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Snow continues across many terminals this evening. ILS
breakpoints may continue to be reached through tomorrow morning
at KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KMTJ, KTEX, KDRO, and KGUC. Mountain
obscuration and mechanical turbulence will continue to be
concerns through the duration of the storm as well. VFR
conditions should begin to settle in across the region tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ004-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ009-012-
     017>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ023.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT