617
FXUS65 KGJT 221116
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
416 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of snow is on deck Saturday night through Sunday
  night favoring the southern mountains. Hazardous travel
  conditions are very likely in the southern Colorado high
  country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Models are in good agreement with satellite imagery with the
vertically stacked cold low off the coast of northern Baja. They are
also in fairly good agreement with the low ejecting to the northeast
moving over Baja by this evening, pushing into Arizona Sunday
morning and tracking over the Four Corners through Sunday afternoon
before shifting east of the Divide Sunday evening. There are some
valley areas around Western Colorado with patchy dense fog and low
clouds that will hang around to about mid morning before burning
off. Otherwise, most of eastern Utah and Western Colorado will see
mostly clear skies this morning with clouds moving up from the
southwest through the day ahead of the next storm system. The
exception will be the southern areas that will see these clouds move
in this morning.

There is some discrepancy between the deterministic models with the
European running slightly slower and tracking the low farther north
than both the GFS and Canadian models, and this is in better
agreement with the ensembles. The more northerly track spreads the
shower activity farther to the west into southeastern Utah and
farther north to about the I-70 corridor which most of the guidance
has picked up. Looking at the San Juan Mountains getting four to
eight inches new snow above 9000 feet with locally higher amounts on
the taller mountains. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for zones 18
and 19 in the San Juan Mountains for 4 to 8 inches snow above 9000
feet starting at 3 AM Sunday morning and running to midnight Sunday
night. Expect minor impacts to travel in the southern Colorado
mountains Sunday due to roads becoming icy and snowpacked over the
higher passes. If you will be driving in the southern Colorado
mountains Sunday, allow extra time for the wintery conditions.
Farther north, the Elk, West Elk and Sawatch Mountains will see two
to four inches snow possible Sunday afternoon and evening with a
dusting to an inch or so possible on Grand Mesa and Vail Pass.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

With northwesterly flow setting up behind the departing low and
PWAT`s slightly above normal, albeit decreasing, orographically-
driven snow showers are likely to linger on Monday. Impacts should
be minimal though as there won`t be much moisture nor upper-level
support to produce anything more than weak accumulations. Conditions
will only continue to dry out further into the mid-week as ridging
settles in over the western CONUS. On Thursday, there exists the
potential for a stream of moisture to dip down into our region from
the PacNW, though models aren`t in agreement at this point in every
aspect of the moisture plume: location, timing, and strength. To
reinforce this, the NBM is only indicating a 50/50 shot right now
that any measurable snow will fall in the CWA. This does appear to
be our next best chance at any precipitation through the work week
though, so it will be worth keeping tabs on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low cigs below ILS breakpoints are expected to hang near or over
KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KGJT, KTEX, KDRO, KGUC, and KHDN until and
potentially shortly after sunrise. In addition, fog is dropping
vis at KDRO to LIFR or VLIFR conditions. This fog should also
begin to dissipate as the sun rises. Some potential for
precipitation arrives from the south towards the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight MST
     Sunday night for COZ018-019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT