614
FXUS65 KGJT 222349
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
449 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A system will move through the area on Sunday mainly south of
  I-70, with most locations dry by sunrise on Monday.

- Snow is expected generally above 8000 feet in the central and
  southern mountains most of the day Sunday. Overall snow totals
  are 4-8 inches.

- Temperatures remain around normal until a cold front on
  Tuesday cools most places down by 5-10 degrees.

- Wednesday and Thursday look to be mostly dry with near to
  slightly above normal temperatures. Precipitation chances
  return next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1240 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

The closed low pressure currently over the Baja is expected to lift
northeastward overnight. There are slight variations in the track,
but consensus is that it will pass just south of the Four Corners.
Despite being a southern system a cold front will accompany the low.
This along with dynamic lift will help support a band of showers
moving into the area late tonight. That band of showers looks to
reach I-70 late tomorrow morning before dissipating in the evening.
A slight northerly shift in the track has resulted in higher QPF in
the central mountains, so there was an increase in snowfall for
those locations. Amounts and coverage still do not exceed advisory
criteria, but if this trend continues it may. Periods of moderate to
heavy snowfall rates are expected especially in the higher terrain.
Steep lapse rates under the low will allow for a transition to more
scattered showers Sunday afternoon across the southern third of the
CWA. A few thunderstorms could be possible. The San Juans still have
the highest snow totals with 4-8 inches expected and pockets of 12
inches possible, while the central mountains south of I-70 could get
2-6 inches. Snow levels will range from 8-9 kft for this storm.
Expect impacts to travel in the southern Colorado mountains Sunday
due to roads becoming icy and snowpacked over the higher passes.
Most of the precipitation will be over by sunrise Monday morning,
although there could still be some snowy roads.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

A stretch of relatively quiet weather highlights the extended
forecast through Friday. After this weekend`s system exits, the next
feature of interest will be a cold frontal passage Monday night. For
most of the region, this will bring cooler, seasonable high
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, and cooler nighttime lows as
well. Hopefully this will prove helpful for snowmaking efforts. We
are not expecting much precipitation with this front- just some
light snow/flurries over the northern Divide mountains with a very
low chance (<5%) for winter driving impacts.

Northwesterly flow becomes the mainstay behind the front leading to
periodic chances for light, orographic snow along the northern
Divide mountians. Daytime temperatures warm a few degrees towards
the end of the week with nighttime lows remaining sub freezing.

It is very early and forecast confidence is very low, but we are
beginning to monitor the potential for a low pressure system to
bring active weather to the Intermountain West next weekend. With a
busy weekend of holiday travel to come, we will be sure to provide
updates as the week progresses. For now, keep a close eye on the
forecast if you have weekend travel plans- particularly on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 442 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low pressure will lift towards the Four Corners this evening and
just shy of the I-70 corridor by early Sunday morning. This will
bring breakpoint to near breakpoint conditions with mountain
snow showers and valley rains expected at KASE, KMTJ, KTEX,
KDRO, and KGUC. Marginal conditions are possible for KCNY and
KGJT by Sunday morning, but remain low confidence, therefore
kept PROB30 verbiage in there. Improving conditions are not
expected before this TAF period closes out. Winds remain light
with a few shower enhanced gusts possible within embedded
showers.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to midnight MST
     Sunday night for COZ018-019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT