818
FXUS65 KGJT 272148
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
248 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures highlight the Thanksgiving Day
  forecast, with warmth continuing into tomorrow. Cooler weather
  returns Saturday onward.

- Other than periodic light snow showers in the northern
  mountains, conditions remain dry through tomorrow afternoon.

- A quick moving system will bring mountain snow Friday night
  into Saturday, with another system impacting the region Sunday
  and Monday bringing wintry conditions and potentially
  impacting post-holiday travel through the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

The models are in good agreement with each other and with satellite
imagery placing the low just off the Pacific Northwest about to move
inland and the ridge axis centered on eastern Utah and Western
Colorado bringing the sunny skies to the region today. This low
moves in over western Washington this evening and opens into a wave
overnight as it descends to the southeast into Idaho. Models
continue in good agreement on timing and track of this openwave
moving into the northern areas tomorrow evening and shifting east of
the Divide by Saturday morning. With the latest run, guidance is
inconsistent on the moisture associated with the system with a sharp
increase of precipitation over the Park Range, but the satellite
imagery isn`t showing this increased moisture up stream. Reduced the
QPF with this latest run to limit snow to four to eight inches
accumulation on the Park range, and one to three inches in the
Elkheads, the Flat Tops and Vail Pass, more in line with the
previous runs. That being said, you`ll want to check the forecast
tomorrow if you plan to drive in these areas as there is a lot of
uncertainty in the snow amounts, and these amounts could see gains
of 50% or more snow should the latest run prove true. This area does
get a cold shot of arctic air with this system with temperatures
dropping 15-20 degrees Saturday from the warm temperatures of today
and tomorrow in the Steamboat Springs area. Look for temperatures
cooling five to ten degrees elsewhere across the region Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

After the latest clipper departs into the Plains and Midwest by
Saturday afternoon, much cooler air mass will be left behind with
highs dropping by about 5 to 10 degrees from Friday`s highs. Some
light flurries may linger over the northern Divide but conditions
should be improving through the afternoon. Another trough is
expected to drop in from the northwest Sunday afternoon with snow
picking up over the northern and central mountains, dropping further
south into the San Juans by Sunday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with regards to this late weekend storm and are a
bit more progressive and not as far south, with this system moving
into the Plains by Monday with mountain snow lingering through
Monday morning. With its continental origins, moisture is limited
which is resulting in less production. At this time, snowfall totals
fall within that 3 to 6 inch range for most mountain areas with
locally higher amounts over the central mountains and eastern San
Juans. This reduction in totals from run to run is reflected with
limited moisture and the more progressive nature of this system.
Mountain travel post-Thanksgiving holiday will be impactful
regardless of amounts so check the latest forecast and road
conditions before traveling and be prepared for wintry conditions
over the passes.

Dirty northwest flow remains for much of next week with what looks
like a cooler unsettled pattern emerging as yet another system drops
in from the northwest by Tuesday into Wednesday. This appears to be
another clipper like system favoring the northern and central
Colorado mountains. Details become fuzzy beyond Monday honestly, but
this unsettled northwest flow should keep mountain snow in the
forecast through the coming week and cooler temperatures as we cross
over into December, staying right around 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS remain through late morning across KHDN, KEGE and KASE but
should lift and clear out after 20Z. Mostly sunny skies expected
for majority of the day. High clouds will thicken and increase
this evening and lower a bit overnight but CIGS should stay
above ILS breakpoints. Winds remain light and terrain driven.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT