942
FXUS65 KGJT 072313
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
513 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Plenty of sun and warm conditions move in for the weekend. May
  see a very isolated shower/storm over the San Juans this
  afternoon.

- Afternoon and evening showers and storms will be common,
  mainly over the higher terrain, through the week.

- High temperatures will be running warm, about 5 to 8 degrees
  above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A pleasant spring day in store, especially after the last few
days of stronger convection. Visible satellite imagery is
showing plenty of cumulus over all the higher terrain with
mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Models were hinting at just enough
instability and lift to allow some showers or a quick
thunderstorm to fire along the PUB/GJT CWA borders this
afternoon over the San Juans. Latest model runs including the
NAMNEST, HRRR and NBM have shifted this convection a little
further east, out of our area, so trimmed back PoPs for this
convection to just along the above mentioned border.

Sunday, northwesterly flow remains across the area. A very
subtle wave will move through the mean flow and looks to
release just enough instability (300 to 500 J/kg of CAPE) to
allow a few showers and storms to form. Favored areas will be
along the Continental Divide, Flat Tops, central mountains and
eastern Uintas. Might see a few stronger gusts from storms that
form. High temps will be about 5 degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A pattern shift this weekend will bring warmer and drier conditions,
with convection expected over the high terrain each afternoon.
Ridging aloft will prevent any major sources of upper level
support from passing through the region, which means widespread
precipitation is not in the forecast in the long term period.
However, a continuous stream of moisture advecting into our
region will allow for convection each afternoon through the late
workweek, primarily over the higher terrain. With this moisture
advection PWAT anomalies generally fall between 100% and 200%
of normal through Friday. The upper level ridge looks to weaken
sometime in the midweek, potentially resulting in increased
afternoon convection. Temperatures will be above normal for most
of the CWA while ridging is aloft. Expect high temperatures 5
to 10 degrees above normal each day, with Wednesday being the
warmest day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 459 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Expect VFR conditions with generally light terrain driven winds
and mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Look for a few
scattered clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms
building over the higher terrain after 18Z, lasting through the
late afternoon and ending around 00Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...DB