086
FXUS65 KGJT 072351
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
551 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected mostly along and north
  of I-70 through this evening.

- Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms over the higher terrain daily through mid week.

- Thursday and Friday will see widespread showers and
  thunderstorms return with a passing system.

- Temperatures remain near normal today before a warming trend
  starts Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025

A ridge has built in behind the shortwave that passed over the area
yesterday. This has led to a midlevel cap that is preventing deep
convection or robbing the cape especially south of I-70. North of I-
70 the cap is not as strong, but still present. Therefore convection
will be isolated across the south and scattered in the north.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is still possible, but the flash flood
threat will be confined to the recent burn scars. The stronger
cells could produce small hail and gusty winds up to 40-50 mph.
Expect the showers to dissipate this evening with quiet weather
overnight. There is not much change to the overall pattern
tomorrow so it should end up similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025

On Tuesday a strong low pressure system makes landfall in the PACNW
causing southwest flow to develop in our area. It appears that
moisture will still be present in this flow therefore chances for
showers and storms continue. The low pressure moves towards the
Great Basin on Wednesday allowing moisture advection to persist
especially the southern CWA. Thursday and Friday look to be the most
active days as the low lifts out of the Great Basin and tracks
towards the Northern Plains. The jet begins to impact us on Thursday
so winds increase in general for most places. On these days the
moisture will be at the highest values (PWATs 150-200 percent
of normal) for this event as a dry slot spreads over the region
on Saturday. Models are advertising a tight gradient with the
mositure, which could bisect our area. With that being the case
the eastern CWA have the best precipitation chances over the
western CWA as of now. This moisture plume could shift either
way, so it is something to watch. Saturday might not be
completely quiet as there may still be some low-level moisture
along with steep lapse rates aloft. This storm could shape up
to be the first fall-like system of the season. Although the
core of the cold air does pass to our north so temperatures do
not stray too far from average.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Today`s shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually
diminishing. While most precipitation has fallen north of I-70,
the strongest convection continues to be near the northern
portion of the Utah and Colorado border. Over the next few hours
this activity should come to an end, with the exception of some
lingering showers. Drier air moves in tomorrow, reducing
coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With that,
confidence is not currently high enough regarding TAF site
impacts to include any PROB30 for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT