083
FXUS65 KGJT 161149
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
449 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley rain, mountain snow and a few thunderstorms are
  expected this afternoon and overnight.

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for 4 to 8 inches
  of snow for the San Juans, Grand Mesa, Flat Tops and northern
  mountains above 9K feet.

- Temperatures will be closer to normal most of next week. A
  second system could bring another round of precipitation on
  Tuesday through late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

The next system to affect our area is currently just spinning
off the California coast and is forecast to start moving
northeastward through the day. As this occurs, precip will
start falling over SE Utah, and then quickly spread to the San
Juans. This showery type precip will continue through the
afternoon hours and then as we head toward the evening, a cold
front will approach from the west. Models continue to highlight
some heavy precip along this frontal boundary and with some
instability present, a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
either. H7 temps are expected to quickly drop as the front moves
through and this is when we expect rain to switch over to
snowfall. While the front will be moving at a good clip, some
accumulating snowfall is expected for the higher terrain.
Decided to issue some advisories to account for this snowfall
though some concerns remain. Southwesterly flow ahead of the
front will keep temperatures fairly warm, roads and pavements
will also be warm, so while the rain to snow switch will occur,
impacts may not be that great. Again, the speed of the front and
precip may also limit how much precip falls. All that being
said, 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts remain possible
and as it`s the first widespread snow of the season, advisories
seem warranted. Snow levels at the start of the event will be
around 10.5K ft and are expected to drop to around 8K ft by
Monday morning but am anticipating most impacts to be above 9K
feet. As the front moves through, the San Juans will initially
see the heavier snow before spreading to the central and then
northern mountains this evening and overnight following frontal
passage.

By Monday morning, the low pressure and best upper level support
will shifted well north and east of our CWA though some
lingering showers will persist across the higher elevations.
High temperatures for much of the area will drop by 10 to 15
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

On Monday night transitory ridging will build behind the fast moving
weather system that occurs in the short term. At the same time, a
low pressure system will be moving down the coast of California,
before eventually moving eastward into the Intermountain West.
Uncertainty with this system persists as models still struggle to
find agreement. Some previous runs from a few models, including the
GFS, had this system tracking more southward, thus having less of an
impact on our CWA. However, more recent runs have brought the track
a bit more northward, which would be more impactful for our area.
So, active weather is likely to return sometime during the midweek,
but given the uncertainty and inconsistency with models, the
magnitude and location of potential impacts is not quite clear yet.
after the potential midweek system the chance of unsettled weather
drops. The shift to a more active weather pattern will bring cooler,
more seasonable temperatures. Highs will be near normal at the start
of the long term period, and look to fall below normal Wednesday
through the end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 441 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Clouds are on the increase as the next system approaches from
the southwest. Broken to overcast ceilings will be common this
afternoon and overnight with MVFR to IFR flight conditions
possible as a cold front moves through later this afternoon into
the evening hours. Valley rains and mountain snows are expected
with PROB30 groups capturing this possibility for all TAF sites.
Gusty winds of 20 to 30 kts will also be possible across the
area especially as the front pushes through. Most TAF sites will
get close to, if not reach, ILS breakpoints later this afternoon
through tonight.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
     Monday for COZ004-009-013.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST
     Monday for COZ018-019.

UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT