794
FXUS65 KGJT 032103
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
303 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, and there is a
  potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures will remain below normal today and tomorrow,
  before warming to 5-10 degrees above normal early next week.

- Lingering moisture tomorrow will lead to another round of
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the terrain, but the
  rest of the holiday weekend will be mostly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Tonight scattered showers and storms will persist especially
across the northern half of the area. This is where the
shortwave trough will track and provide some lift. A dry slot
works in from the southwest behind the departing wave, and that
will try and mix down to the lower levels during the day. Given
current PWAT values well above normal it will be hard to mix out
all of the moisture so there should be enough for scattered
convection in the afternoon and evening. Right now the models
are favoring areas along and north of I-70. The potential for
heavy rainfall decreases with the dry air mixing down, but it
can not be ruled out. The chances frequent lightning, small hail
and gusty winds still exist. Convection looks to dissipate in
the late evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The long term period brings a return of warm and dry conditions
with daily chances of afternoon convection along the Divide and in
the San Juans. Dry air moves in on Saturday, bringing an end to the
widespread showers and thunderstorms we have received during the
latter half of the workweek. Model disagreement on atmospheric
moisture introduces some uncertainty in regard to the precipitation
forecast in the long term. Over the weekend both the ECMWF Ens and
the GFS Ens keep PWATs below or near normal in the southern
mountains, but the ECMWF Ens keeps the northern half of our CWA more
moist than the GFS Ens. During the workweek the ECMWF Ens is
consistently drier than the GFS Ens, keeping PWAT anomalies 10-30%
of normal lower than the GFS Ens. However, even considering the
differences between models, moisture ultimately looks limited
through the long term. Despite the dry conditions, weak winds are
expected to keep the CWA from meeting critical fire weather
thresholds.

A center of high pressure to our south will set up southwesterly
flow and subsidence. As a result, temperatures will gradually warm
each day Saturday through Thursday. High temperatures climb from
just below normal on Saturday to 5-10 degrees above normal on
Thursday. This could mean temperatures exceeding 100 degrees for the
desert valleys during the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers have begun in eastern Utah. Over the next few hours
showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region,
potentially impacting most TAF sites. The main threats will be
gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail, but brief drops to MVFR
conditions are possible during periods of heavy rain. Coverage
of showers should become isolated by 12Z, but precipitation is
possible through the night, especially north of I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT