046
FXUS65 KGJT 052350
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
450 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak shortwave tonight brings light snow to the high country
  of our northern counties and the Central Mountains just south
  of the I-70 corridor.

- Record warmth continues on the West Slope Thursday/Friday with
  temperatures slightly cooler than today.

- Unsettled conditions are likely to bring colder temperatures
  back Saturday with additional snowfall for our northern
  mountains. This trend is expected to continue into the new
  work week, given early forecasts hinting at more moisture
  arriving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

A jet max draped west to east across the West is responsible for
some spirited winds aloft this afternoon. Sounding data indicates
jet max speeds in excess of 135kts overhead. This has delivered
gusty surface winds to the CWA this afternoon, with some isolated
gusts in excess of 45 mph and a broad swath of 35 mph westerly
winds. A shortwave ripple works along this jet max tonight and will
bring some light snowfall to our northern counties, and to a lesser
extent the high peaks of the Central Mountains. Snow accumulations
will remain confined to elevations above 9000 feet, thanks to the
unseasonably warm antecedent conditions across the CWA. This will
net 2-3 inches of snow, mostly above pass level, by Thursday
afternoon. Generous sunshine today has brought another round of high
temperature records to the region. Desert Valleys are approaching 70
degrees again, while the mountain valleys are in the 50s. This
shortwave tonight will bump temperatures back a bit Thursday
afternoon, but the exceptional warmth will continue to flirt with
records again under a short transitory ridge working through ahead
of the bigger wave coming ashore in the PACNW Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

The low pressure system that has been sitting off the PacNW coast
will finally get pushed inland on Friday as an open wave trough and
progress across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies,
clipping our northern areas Friday evening through Saturday morning.
Each model run trends a bit further north and slightly more
progressive with this trough. Regardless, it still looks to bring a
return to much colder temperatures than we`ve been experiencing as
well as some decent snowfall accumulations favoring the northern and
central mountains.  Currently, the Park Range is most favored with
amounts a bit less than previous runs but still within the 4 to 12
inch range while the Flattops are in the 4 to 8 inch realm and the
Gore, Elk and West Elk mountains stand at about 2 to 6 inches
possible. This snowfall is the result of another push of Atmospheric
River moisture but the very strong winds aloft associated with the
jet of 160 kts overhead are also factoring into the higher IVT
values, but also resulting in a more progressive system. Prior to
the storm Friday evening into Saturday morning, winds will be
relatively strong as the anomalously warm air mass clashes with the
incumbent colder air mass. Wind gusts could reach or exceed advisory
levels of 45 mph in the valleys with higher gusts in the mountains,
so that will be of concern Friday afternoon with the last warm day
of highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures drop Friday
evening with highs about 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday. Given the timing of the cold air with the arrival of
snowfall, snow ratios appear higher in the efficient dendritic
growth regime. Travel is likely to be impacted Friday evening and
Saturday morning with the combination of snow, wind and cold air.

The cold air doesn`t appear as deep as in previous runs as our highs
post frontal will be near to slightly below normal across the north
and about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the central and southern
areas for Saturday and Sunday...albeit cooler than our recent record
high warmth. A weak wave brushes the northern and central mountains
on Sunday as it moves around the base of the trough with a few more
inches of snow possible. This wave, however, is what will bring the
colder air mass further south and cool temperatures down quite a bit
across much of the region Monday through Wednesday. Expect highs
closer to normal for the central and southern areas and 5 to 10
degrees below normal across the north. In this troughiness pattern
being carved out across the west, several shortwaves move through
from time to time, resulting in a few inches of light snow each day
but nothing too significant at this time. However, another AR event
could be on the horizon for late next week...so stay tuned. Still a
ways out there but we will take any hopes for more moisture that we
can get at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Strong west to southwest winds will decrease by sunset, becoming
light later this evening. Strong winds aloft are expected to
yield LLWS at KHDN, KEGE, KASE, KGUC and KTEX after sunset and
into the early morning Thursday. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions with and no ceilings below ILS breakpoints during the
next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...NL/TGJT