794
FXUS65 KGJT 090402
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1002 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions will continue
  through tomorrow with Red Flag Warnings in place.

- High temperatures will remain above normal with afternoon wind
  gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

- A slight cooling trend begins tomorrow, with critical fire
  weather conditions receding Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Winds have lessened below critical fire weather thresholds and
relative humidities are beginning to recover. Therefore, will let
the Red Flag Warning expire at 10 pm MDT this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across
the region. Surface observations show relative humidity values
dropping as low as single digits in some locations, and winds
are gusting up to 25 to 40 mph. These strong afternoon wind
gusts are primarily from mixing with strong jet winds aloft and
an increased pressure gradient from a trough passing to our
north. As this trough propagates eastward, an associated cold
front will move through northeastern Utah and northwestern
Colorado. The front is supporting some shower activity, but with
such dry air in place virga and gusty winds are anticipated
with most showers. Strong westerly wind gusts are expected
tomorrow afternoon, supporting another day of widespread
critical fire weather conditions. However, weaker winds aloft
will keep gusts a bit lower than they are today. Behind the
front temperatures will start to decrease. Tomorrow high
temperatures will drop by a few degrees, with the coolest
temperatures relative to normal occurring in the northern part
of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Little change day to day in the long term period. Flow becomes more
north through northwesterly after a dry upper level trough pushes
through. The good news will be a noticeable drop in high
temperatures as they drop to more normal mid August values, or a
little bit below. Mixing won`t be as deep and with the pressure
gradient relaxing, gusty winds will not be as strong as seen
recently. In fact, they should be light enough that fire weather
concerns will be much less than those seen recently. High pressure
will build in to the west at the start of the work week. It will
slowly drift to the southeast through the week and as this occurs,
daytime highs will start ramping back up. Winds will continue to be
light, however. The NBM is suggesting some precip over the higher
terrain Wednesday, if some moisture makes its way up from the south.
Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Strong gusts of 25-35 kts continue this afternoon across most
terminals with lighter winds not expected to settle in until
around 2100 MDT. Winds should decrease some tomorrow, but
are still expected to exceed 20 kts in most locations.
Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to prevail throughout the
next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Stronger winds aloft and an increased pressure gradient has lead
to afternoon gusts of up to 25 to 40 mph today. Afternoon
relative humidity values below 15% occurring with the strong
gusts has lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions
today. A frontal boundary moving into northwestern Colorado will
drive a wind shift line across the northern fire zones through
sunset. Shower activity is ongoing along this front, potentially
creating gusty outflow winds. Widespread Red Flag conditions
will occur again tomorrow. Critical fire weather conditions
become localized beginning Sunday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for
     COZ201>203-205-207-290-292>294.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ487-
     490-491.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT