932
FXUS65 KGJT 032338
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
538 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through midnight
  tonight for the San Juans and La Sals and Abajos.

- A Freeze Warning has been issued for SE Utah, the Moab area
  and the Grand Valley for overnight lows reaching the mid 20s.

- A second set of Winter Weather Advisories is in effect for the
  San Juans from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

- Seasonably cold temperatures continue with a warm up expected
  Sunday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Models continue to perform well with the current system. Little
has changed with regards to the location of the long wave trough
or the low pressure. Speaking of, the latest satellite and radar
imagery are showing a clear area of rotation associated with
said low. Cold air aloft is keeping the atmosphere fairly
unstable and this is being borne out with stronger cells having
formed over the last few hours. No lightning strikes noted yet
but the chance is there (just had one south of Vernal). Look
for some brief, heavy rain/snow under these stronger cells for
the remainder of the afternoon. The current winter weather
advisories remain in effect but would not be surprised if they
get pulled down a few hours early. SNOTELs are reporting amounts
ranging from 4 to 8 inches across those advised areas. Clearing
skies after midnight should allow temperatures to drop below
freezing for many areas of eastern Utah and the Western Slope.
With that in mind, statistical guidance shows lows dropping to
the mid 20s for the Grand Valley, Moab areas and SE Utah so
issued another freeze warning to account for this. Thinking this
might be a bit `too` cold, especially for the Grand Valley, but
will err on the side of caution.

By Friday morning, the midlevel circulation will have lifted
into WY while a second low forms in the base of the trough. This
trough won`t have moved that much as a second piece of energy
moves across the area bringing another round of precipitation to
the region. Favored areas will be the San Juans (6 to 10
inches) and the central mountains (2 to 4 inches). Winter
Weather Advisories remain in place from noon through midnight
tomorrow for this next round of snowfall. Outside of those
areas, variable cloudiness will be the rule as high temperatures
remain well below normal.

Saturday, the trough continues to slowly shift east with some
lingering snow continuing through most of the day for the San
Juans. Mostly sunny skies are expected for most of eastern Utah
(north of Monticello) and the northern half (outside of high
terrain) of NW Colorado. Neutral advection and those sunny skies
will keep highs close to what they are today, maybe 2 to 4
degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

By Sunday morning the trough that has been dominating our weather
for the last several days will finally track east of the Divide
while a ridge of high pressure builds into the Western CONUS. This
ridge will nose into eastern Utah and western Colorado through the
day Sunday, with subsidence and modest warm air advection helping
conditions to warm and dry. Temperatures on Sunday will be
seasonable for early April, and will jump another 5 or so degrees on
Monday as the ridge crests overhead. While the Western Slope will be
enjoying abundant sunshine and highs 5-10 degrees above normal, a
trough will be moving into the Pacific Northwest. By Tuesday
morning, as this trough tracks eastward into the Northern Rockies,
it will flatten out the ridge, turning flow zonal and bringing a
very modest bump in moisture. Combined with favorable orographics,
this means a few isolated rain or snow showers will be possible
Tuesday afternoon across mainly the northern mountains. To the
south, skies will remain clear and conditions will be breezy. Along
and south of I-70, highs will be few degrees warmer than the day
previous, while north of I-70 temperatures will run a smidge cooler.
Another system moves into the Northwest late on Tuesday, and models
are not in great agreement as to what influence this next system
will have on eastern Utah and western Colorado. As it stands,
blended guidance keeps us warm and mostly dry, with some slight
chances for afternoon showers in the northern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Unstable airmass remains in place with a large trough overhead.
This will keep a threat of snow showers in most TAF sites
through the mid evening hours with gusty winds possible near
showers and a quick turn down to IFR/LIFR if a stronger shower
moves over the airfield. Stabilization after sunset should help
bring more widespread VFR conditions though a few ILS cigs may
linger through the night. Another round of shower activity can
be expected tomorrow afternoon. KHDN is not getting data from
the ASOS and AMD NOT SKED added to TAF for now.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     COZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon MDT Saturday
     for COZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight MDT
     Saturday night for COZ019.
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     UTZ022-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TGJT