536
FXUS65 KGJT 241001
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One final round of Red Flag Warnings are in effect this
  afternoon across portions of northeast Utah and northwest
  Colorado.

- Scattered storms are expected today and tomorrow across the
  southern and central Colorado mountains. The main threats
  include gusty outflow winds and frequent lighting.

- Above-normal temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions
  return late this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today`s forecast features a unique mix of old and new
elements as critical fire weather conditions hold on in parts
of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, while moisture streams
in from the southeast and fills in along the Continental
Divide.

One final round of Red Flag Warnings are in effect this
afternoon where winds are anticipated to gust up to 35 mph and
relative humidity values are expected to fall to 5-15%. The
upper-level height gradient relaxes tomorrow helping end the
long stretch of critical fire weather concerns across eastern
Utah and western Colorado.

With an influx in moisture to parts of the region,
precipitation chances return to the forecast today mainly in the
form of afternoon thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered storms
are likely over the southern and central Divide mountains. PWAT
values continue to trend higher and higher in the model data
indicating that coverage may be more robust than previously
thought. It will take some time to saturate the lower-levels of
the atmosphere, so wetting rains are not likely. However, gusty
outflow winds up to 50 mph and frequent lighting are anticipated
with these storms.

Another round of convection is on tap tomorrow. Coverage will
likely increase compared to what we see today with better
synoptic lift aloft. We expect storms to develop over the high
terrain before moving off into adjacent valleys. Once again,
wetting rains will be hard to come by. Gusty outflow winds and
frequent lightning will be the main threats associate with these
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Dry, southwest flow returns to the area Thursday, with remnants
of a shortwave trough having pushed the moisture and subsequent
high pressure ridge further east into the Plains and Upper
Midwest. Temperatures will warm as a result, with highs near to
slightly above normal Thursday, returning to 4 to 8 degrees
above normal by the weekend with lower desert valleys of west-
central Colorado and eastern Utah once again approaching or
reaching triple digit heat late this weekend into early next
week. While the winds will be much calmer than previous days as
a ridge of high pressure tries to build over the region and we
lose the strong pressure gradient, a weak shortwave will skirt
across the north on Friday. This may lead to an uptick in winds
mainly across the north for a breezy afternoon and potential
critical fire weather conditions being met, although it appears
localized and marginal at this time. The high pressure ridge
then looks to build across the Great Basin and Four Corners
region this weekend into early next week with light winds aloft.
Enough moisture remains across the Front Range on the east side
of the Divide with a few shortwaves trying to rotate around the
high over our region, which could lead to some afternoon
convection over the higher terrain next week. Lots of
uncertainty on this pattern at the end of the long term period
so for now, hot and dry conditions favor the forecast for the
western slope with an introduction of some isolated to scattered
PoPs over the western Colorado high terrain mainly along the
Divide each afternoon early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Cloud cover will increase overnight for most TAF sites as
clouds move in from the south. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 20
to 30 mph pick up again Tuesday afternoon with isolated
convection possible near terminals along the Divide. Confidence
is too low to add impacts to the TAFs at this time, but we will
be watching the potential for thunderstorm impacts in future
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

One last day of critical fire weather conditions is
on tap for most zones along and north of I-70 where wind gusts up
to 35 mph and min RH values between 5-15% are expected. Moisture
moves in along the Divide today and tomorrow bringing shower and
storm chances to the high terrain, but wetting rain chances are
low. The main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and
lightning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ200-202-203-205-290.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for UTZ486-487-490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT