105
FXUS65 KGJT 031153
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
553 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry, windy conditions will develop as temperatures trend
  10 to 15 degrees over normal.

- Critical fire weather will become more widespread Thursday
  and beyond ahead of low pressure dropping into the PACNW.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon mountain showers and
  thunderstorms will favor the San Juans and the Continental
  Divide through much of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The 00Z models initialized well with satellite imagery placing a
cold low moving up into southern Saskatchewan, a second cold low
descending through the Gulf of Alaska and a weak low circulation off
the coast of SoCal and northern Baja, and ridging over the Central
Plains up into the Great Lakes region. With the deep lows to the
north and well to the northwest, the flow aloft to the north is
mostly zonal across the Western States, but the ridging to the east
extends south through Texas, Mexico and out over the Eastern Pacific
producing a general weak, and somewhat indeterminate flow aloft to
our south with eastern Utah and Western Colorado in the middle. The
high over Texas in the early week did push significant moisture up
into New Mexico, but the current weak flow is not enough to keep
pushing that north into the region. Hence the models have been
trending drier with each run of the models, reducing the chances for
showers Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Thus the current
outlook is for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon over the eastern San Juan Mountains
with a few isolated storms farther north along the central Colorado
Divide.

Later in the week, as the low over the Gulf  of Alaska drops into
the Pacific Northwest, the flow aloft over the region will pick up
out of the southwest producing gusty southwest winds that may last
well into next week. Thursday does indicate borderline critical fire
weather conditions in northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado,
but it`s just not strong enough of a signal to jump on it now. Stay
tuned through Wednesday for updates on this one. With the dry
conditions and temperatures heating up to near record highs, 10-15
degrees above normal by this weekend, expect critical fire weather
conditions possible daily Saturday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Winds are mostly light across the region, but gusts up to around
15 to 20 kts are expected this afternoon. KTEX and KDRO have a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with
primary concerns being lightning and strong wind gusts. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT