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FXUS65 KGJT 060011
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
611 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Convection will continue this afternoon with heavy rain,
  lightning and small hail being the main concern. Coverage will
  decrease this evening though a few stray showers can`t be
  ruled out.

- More showers and storms are expected tomorrow favoring the
  northern half of the CWA as a upper level trough and surface
  cold front move through. Heavy rain, hail, and lightning
  will, once again, be the main concern.

- Drier and warmer conditions return by the weekend into early
  next week with afternoon storms favoring the high terrain and
  more of a gusty wind threat than wetting rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Convection is somewhat weaker than we`ve seen over the last few
days but despite that, plenty of lightning, hail, and some heavy
rainers can be found across the CWA this afternoon. Little has
changed with regards to the ample moisture, peak heating, and instability
to allow this convection to fire. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST
show this convection continuing through 6PM this evening with
coverage decreasing after that. Not all convection will end but
by midnight, should only have to worry about a few showers,
maybe a brief rumble of thunder.

Tomorrow, more convection is expected as an upper level trough
and associated surface cold front move through. CAMs have been
highlighting convection firing around noon, if not a bit
before, as the disturbance approaches from the northwest. An
active afternoon is expected with some heavy rainers, hail, and
plenty of lightning being the main concern once again. Do
anticipate the showers and storms being stronger than those seen
today thanks to the front being a stronger trigger. This
convection should be along the I-70 corridor around 6PM before
moving southward and by midnight, models are showing just about
all precip being over.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This weekend we break out of our wet, troughy weather pattern as a
ridge builds in over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge gradually
moves inland this weekend before taking up residence over the
Intermountain West early next week. Weekend temperatures become more
seasonable as a result before warming to 5-10 degrees above normal
next week. A couple of weak low pressure centers hanging out off the
California coast will keep a steady stream of moisture in place for
the foreseeable future. PWATs will generally remain about 150% of
normal through early next week. This is a big drop from the 200-250%
we`ve had in place this week, but high enough to spawn afternoon
convection over the higher terrain each afternoon despite the lack
of synoptic forcing with high pressure overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms south of the I-70 corridor will
diminish and end over the next few hours, but an active frontal
boundary sagging southeast across the region from about KCAG to
KCNY will keep thunderstorms going along and north of I-70 for
the next four hours before diminishing and ending about 06Z.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to fire up again around 16Z
and continue through the afternoon affecting all TAF sites
across the region except along the New Mexico border. Mountain
sites will have periods below ILS breakpoints. A dry boundary
pushes northwest to southeast into the region after 20Z
bringing an end to the convection behind it with showers ending
across the region tomorrow evening after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...DB