696
FXUS65 KGJT 241718
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1118 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above normal through the
  weekend.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 8PM this evening
  for the Colorado, North Fork, and Gunnison Basins.

- Lighter winds and isolated to widely scattered mountain
  showers and thunderstorms return for Sunday onward, limiting
  critical fire weather conditions.

- Warm and dry conditions are likely to continue next week, with
  very localized shower activity expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

The trough digging into the Great Basin this morning is pushing a
plume of moisture along a heading from roughly Las Vegas to Manila,
UT. Much of this is getting chewed up by the persistent ridging
arced over the Rockies and Great Plains. The northwest corner of the
CWA is undoubtedly getting some cloud cover, but it`s all high based
stuff out of reach for ceilometers. The ridge holds its own through
the day today and hot, dry, windy conditions return for one more
day. Red Flag Warnings remain in place for the Colorado, North Fork,
and Gunnison Basins. Winds will gust 30 to 40 mph across the region,
with the stronger winds shifting more east today, thanks to the
pending frontal boundary arrival. Cloud cover will also increase
today, taking a bite out of afternoon highs. Temperatures will still
trend 10 degrees above climatology around the CWA. Unfortunately
this will be a front with little teeth and much if it gets washed
out on the terrain of northwest Colorado. Sunday highs will contract
a couple degrees north of I-70, but little to none around the Four
Corners. Same thing for moisture, relative humidities will come up
north of I-70 Sunday, with warm and dry conditions continuing around
the Four Corners. Winds will slacken enough Sunday to take Red
Flags out of the equation, with only localized critical fire
weather possible in the southern half of the CWA.

By Sunday afternoon, weak forcing with the front has settled to near
a highway 50 line, this will serve as the rough demarcation for any
showers and thunderstorms to fire to the north. Unfortunately,
anemic moisture and an antecedent bone dry air mass will work
against much in the way of wetting rains. However, a few decaying
showers and thunderstorms will certainly be capable of producing
some blustery outflow winds and a bolt or two of lightning,
something weekend mountain enthusiasts will want to take note of.
Things will quiet quickly Sunday evening as the upper level ridge
continues to amplify over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

Moisture spreads across the CWA Sunday into Monday. The
incoming moisture does not look to be exceptional, but it will
bring PWAT anomalies from below normal to near or just above
normal. The ECMWF Ens favors higher PWAT anomalies than the GFS
Ens Sunday into Monday, with max anomalies falling near 150% and
125% of normal, respectively. This moisture is expected to
linger through the long term, supporting a chance for some
afternoon showers and storms each day. On Sunday precipitation
chances are primarily to the north of I-70. Beyond Sunday
precipitation chances are focused along the Divide. As a result
of the decrease in winds and weak moisture advection, fire
weather concerns lessen in the long term forecast period.

Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday and Monday. High pressure
will begin to build midweek, allowing for high temperatures to climb
to 5 to 10 degrees above normal Tuesday through Thursday. This could
mean high temperatures near 90 degrees for the Grand Valley and the
desert valleys of east-central and southeast Utah on the warmest
days of the long term forecast period, Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

High level clouds will be drifting across the region ahead of
storm organizing over the Intermountain West. The probability of
a passing storm or shower over the northern TAF sites is less
than 15% with dry conditions expected elsewhere. Gusty winds of
25 to 30 mph can be expected again this afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Widespread critical fire weather conditions shift slightly east
today with Red Flags issued on the Colorado side of the state
line. Low relative humidities and above average temperatures
continue across the region, with winds relaxing slightly along
the state line. An approaching frontal boundary will bring some
moisture back to areas along and north of I-70 this evening,
along with isolated showers. Increased moisture along the
frontal boundary will hang up across the northern half of the
CWA and squash critical fire weather concerns there Sunday and
beyond. Elsewhere, around the Four Corners, warm and dry
conditions continue, but lighter winds will keep critical fire
weather out of the picture. Localized shower and thunderstorm
activity will continue Sunday and beyond as moisture works
beneath the ridge that will keep us above normal temperature-
wise.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-292-
     293.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT