484
FXUS65 KGJT 072043
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
243 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High clouds will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of a
weak shortwave that will brush our area Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Some gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph expected Tuesday and again
Wednesday.

- Near record warmth possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Clear skies can be found across the CWA this afternoon thanks to a
ridge of high pressure and plenty of subsidence that it brought.
Looking out west, a short wave trough is bringing clouds to the
PacNW as it comes ashore. High clouds have already reached central
UT and we can expect to see these same clouds moving into our region
over the next few hours. High temps today will top out around 10
degrees above average values for this time of year. As the trough
continues to push inland today, it will force the ridge of high
pressure further east and break it down as it does so. The end
result will be more zonal flow across our area today and again
tomorrow. Previous NBM runs were highlighting some precip for the
Flat Tops and northern mountains while the latest run has dropped
PoP amounts considerably...down to 10 to 15% chances. This follows
as other deterministic models continue to keep the CWA dry. For
tomorrow then, we`ll see times of clouds and sun, more clouds up
north than sun, and continued warmth despite the increased cloud
cover. Some breezy conditions are also expected as the jet stream
sets up overhead and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts around 20
to 25 mph will be common for the southern half of the CWA with gusts
around 30 mph, if not a bit higher, for the northern valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Wednesday will see skies clearing out under the ridge building in
from the west, but some mid to high clouds from the mid-level
moisture track over Wyoming will linger over the northern Colorado
mountains where a stray orographic shower on the Park Range can`t be
ruled out. Temperatures will run above normal across eastern Utah
and Western Colorado, ten to 15 degrees in the lower elevation and
five to ten in the mountains with dry spring conditions setting in.
Westerly winds through the afternoon will generally be 10 to 20 mph,
but will be stronger at 20 to 30 mph in northeastern Utah and
northwestern Colorado where near critical fire weather conditions
are likely. Thursday will see winds much lighter under the ridge and
temperatures warming a few degrees over Wednesday with mostly clear
skies. By Friday, high level clouds will move in from the west with
winds shifting southwest ahead of the next trough system
pushing into the Pacific Northwest with temperatures near record
highs at 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the lower elevations
and ten to 15 degrees above normal in the mountains. Look for
another warm, dry day with near critical fire weather
conditions across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado.
By Saturday, stronger winds across the region will gust 20 to 30
mph in the valleys along and south of the I-70 corridor and 25
to 40 mph to the north with near record temperatures and dry
weather. Sunday will have yet stronger gusty southwest winds,
but temperatures will fall five to ten degrees as the ridge
pushes east onto the Plains. With the very low RH below about
8,000 ft across the region, all of eastern Utah and Western
Colorado will have near critical fire weather conditions below
this level Saturday and Sunday. No fire weather products are
anticipated at this time due to the fuels being moist from the
Spring green up, but with the warm temperatures, very low RH and
windy conditions, these fuel conditions can change quickly.
Even without fire weather products active, you should always
exercise caution with fire any time you`re out in the country,
and especially when it`s windy, warm and dry.

With this next storm system, models diverge on the timing, track and
strength of this trough, but guidance is indicating scattered
showers possible over the northern mountains Sunday with
isolated shower spreading south into the central Colorado
mountains. Mostly it`s lack of moisture limiting activity. Monday
will see similar chances for showers with temperatures cooling
another five degrees. Due to the divergence in the model
solutions, there is little confidence in the forecast for this
storm system. Stay tuned through the week for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Expect VFR conditions and light terrain driven winds through
the TAF period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB