


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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164 FXUS65 KGJT 200000 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 600 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions remain through the end of the week, with near-record high temperatures expected. - A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible over the San Juans this afternoon. - Confidence continues to increase that moisture will return late this week, increasing chances of precipitation and bringing some cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure is pretty much parked overhead and will wobble around for the next few days. The high has brought some moisture with it located mainly on the southern and eastern periphery. That moisture has filled in along the Divide and is enough for isolated showers this afternoon and evening. Not much rain is expected with these showers. Elsewhere the high pressure is contributing to record heat and dry conditions. Moisture will continue to gradually fill the high pressure, so by tomorrow the coverage of showers and a few storms expands to the southern mountains and surrounding foothills. Showers tomorrow may be capable of producing strong gusty winds with limited rain. Once again, the remainder of the area will have record heat and dry conditions. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The high pressure will be directly overhead at the start of the long term period. Ensembles continue to indicate moisture increasing thanks to flow around the high pressure. The deterministic EC and GFS both show PWATs increasing from north to south starting Thursday and increasing to about 150% of normal by Saturday and by Sunday a second push of moisture increases this to 200%. This increased moisture looks to stay through the start of the work week. Shortwaves will rotate around the high pressure and work on this moisture allowing more widespread showers and thunderstorms to fire. Coverage will slowly increase Thursday and each day after that with the best coverage looking to be Sunday onwards. Cloud coverage will have a significant impact on whether strong convection forms in the afternoon or a more stratiform event occurs. If daytime heating is at a maximum, some storms will likely bring heavy showers to the region while continued cloudiness will bring a more soaking type of rain. These will probably be game day decisions to make on how each day will play out. Having said all that, the last several model runs have all shown this increase in moisture, showers, and storms so confidence is increasing that this monsoon push will come to fruition. Hot temperatures on Thursday and Friday will start decreasing heading into the weekend dropping to near normal values by Sunday and possibly below Monday due to clouds and precip. About time... && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 553 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Expect generally VFR conditions and light terrain driven winds across the region through the TAF period. The exception will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the San Juan Mountains between 18Z and 02Z with possible impacts to KTEX. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...TGJT AVIATION...DB