Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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164
FXUS65 KGJT 200000
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
600 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions remain through the end of the week,
  with near-record high temperatures expected.

- A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible over
  the San Juans this afternoon.

- Confidence continues to increase that moisture will return
  late this week, increasing chances of precipitation and
  bringing some cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

High pressure is pretty much parked overhead and will wobble around
for the next few days. The high has brought some moisture with it
located mainly on the southern and eastern periphery. That moisture
has filled in along the Divide and is enough for isolated showers
this afternoon and evening. Not much rain is expected with these
showers. Elsewhere the high pressure is contributing to record heat
and dry conditions. Moisture will continue to gradually fill the
high pressure, so by tomorrow the coverage of showers and a few
storms expands to the southern mountains and surrounding foothills.
Showers tomorrow may be capable of producing strong gusty winds with
limited rain. Once again, the remainder of the area will have record
heat and dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The high pressure will be directly overhead at the start of the long
term period. Ensembles continue to indicate moisture increasing
thanks to flow around the high pressure. The deterministic EC and
GFS both show PWATs increasing from north to south starting Thursday
and increasing to about 150% of normal by Saturday and by Sunday a
second push of moisture increases this to 200%. This increased
moisture looks to stay through the start of the work week.
Shortwaves will rotate around the high pressure and work on this
moisture allowing more widespread showers and thunderstorms to fire.
Coverage will slowly increase Thursday and each day after that with
the best coverage looking to be Sunday onwards. Cloud coverage will
have a significant impact on whether strong convection forms in the
afternoon or a more stratiform event occurs. If daytime heating is
at a maximum, some storms will likely bring heavy showers to the
region while continued cloudiness will bring a more soaking type of
rain. These will probably be game day decisions to make on how each
day will play out. Having said all that, the last several model runs
have all shown this increase in moisture, showers, and storms so
confidence is increasing that this monsoon push will come to
fruition.

Hot temperatures on Thursday and Friday will start decreasing
heading into the weekend dropping to near normal values by Sunday
and possibly below Monday due to clouds and precip. About
time...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Expect generally VFR conditions and light terrain driven winds
across the region through the TAF period. The exception will be
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the San
Juan Mountains between 18Z and 02Z with possible impacts to
KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...DB