962
FXUS65 KGJT 172051
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
251 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions return today. However, isolated
  showers and storms are are possible through the afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions persist through the
  first half of the new week.

- Confidence continues to increase for a prolonged push of
  monsoonal moisture later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Isolated showers are ongoing, primarily over the high terrain
north of I-70, where moisture lingers and CAPE is the highest.
However, the convective activity seen on radar seems to be
diminishing as dry air moves in with southwesterly flow.
Tomorrow afternoon and evening the dry airmass will lead to
anomalously dry PWAT values, as low as 50-75% of normal. This
will result in near zero PoPs tomorrow for all but the San
Juans, where terrain based isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible. Any convection through the short term could
produce strong outflow winds, and may result in dry
thunderstorms. High pressure begins to build over the CWA
starting tomorrow, which will generally keep afternoon wind
gusts calm.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

High pressure will remain overhead at the start of the long term
period as abnormally dry air also remains in place. PWATs of 30 to
40% of normal are expected and don`t look to recover until Thursday.
Until then, high temps will reach well above normal values with
plenty of sunshine expected. While the ensembles aren`t highlighting
much in the way of convection, the NBM is putting a 20 to 30% chance
of precip over the higher terrain of the San Juans for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Not completely sold on this solution but daytime heating
and just enough instability might allow some convection. Things get
interesting Thursday onwards as flow around the high pressure starts
to advect moisture back into the region from north to south. This
increase in moisture will then be worked on by several pieces of
energy, some more dynamic than others, allowing afternoon and
evening convection to fire. Forecast PWATs are expected to reach
right around normal values by Friday and increase through the
weekend. This is good news as we`ve been so dry lately. As is always
the case this far out, changes to the forecast should be expected.
Having said that, confidence continues to slowly increase with each
model run.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Some minor convection has fired over the higher terrain but do not
anticipate any issues at TAF sites. Some afternoon gusts around
20 to 25kts are possible. Outside of that, VFR conditions will
remain in place.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT