996
FXUS65 KGJT 101130
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
530 AM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue with near record highs expected
  both Friday and Saturday.

- Winds pick up Friday and Saturday as humidities drop to the
  low teens/single digits. If fuels are deemed critical, fire
  weather concerns increase.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Sunday as a cool front moves
  through the area. Light precipitation across the northern
  mountains may accompany the front as it moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025

A high amplitude ridge axis remains just to our west this
morning and will continue to creep eastward as the next trough
moves into the PacNW. By this afternoon, the axis will be
directly overhead bringing another day of sunny skies and warm
temperatures. Under the ridge, winds will be lighter than seen
over the last few days though a few higher afternoon gusts can`t
be ruled out. As far as temperatures are concerned, highs will
reach 15 degrees above average for this time of year, give or
take. Friday, the trough over the PacNW will cause the northern
portion of the ridge axis to start tilting and cause broad
southwesterly flow to setup across the CWA. Warm advection will
continue and cause high temps to increase by another 5 degrees
or so, making highs now about 20 degrees above normal. Deeper
mixing will allow some higher wind gusts to reach the
surface...around 20 to 25 mph. As this occurs, RH values will
drop to the low teens/single digits. The concern then turns to
fire weather, especially whether fuels are deemed critical or
not. Some spotty and isolated critical fire weather conditions
are possible for the northern valleys fire zones (200 and 202)
Friday. Held off on issuing any highlights as fuels remain an
unknown at the moment.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025

The first trough that approached the PacNW will lose much of its
support as it tracks into Canada. The next trough and associated
cold front will start affecting our area Saturday in the form
of stronger southwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph. Highs will
remain well above normal, maybe a few degrees warmer than
Friday, while widespread RH values will drop to the single
digits for much of the CWA. Widespread critical fire weather
conditions are expected but, again, remain dependent on whether
fuels are deemed critical or not. As the front approaches, some
light showers are possible for the northern mountains starting
early Sunday morning through Sunday evening. The surface cold
front will move through Sunday afternoon/evening causing a
noticeable drop in highs by 10 degrees. Even so, critical fire
weather conditions will remain a concern for much of the CWA
Sunday. Monday onwards, ridging starts to build in and by
Tuesday another warmup kicks in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place for the next 24 hours as a
ridge axis moves over the area. A few gusts may make an
appearance this afternoon but will only reach 20 kts, give or
take.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT