505
FXUS65 KGJT 102057
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
257 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions today will be
  limited to the 4 Corners region of Colorado with localized
  conditions possible elsewhere.

- A slight cool down toward normal is forecast today with
  temperatures returning to well above normal through early next
  week.

- Dry and warmer conditions continue into much of next week with
  some hint of moisture being drawn northward into the region by
  late in week to promote a better coverage of showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A passing trough is bringing a slight shift in weather
conditions compared to previous days. As the trough passes flow
will shift to northwesterly, allowing for high temperatures to
cool back to near normal today and tomorrow. On Tuesday a shift
to more westerly flow supports a gradual increase in high
temperatures to well above normal again. Wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph are occurring this afternoon, mostly south of I-70, while a
weak jet streak passes overhead. Gusts look to calm after today
as wind speeds aloft remain weak and the pressure gradient
decreases while the passing trough moves to our east and high
pressure begins building in the Southwest. Despite minimum
relative humidity values less than 15% for all but the highest
terrain, a decrease in afternoon wind gusts should allow for
only localized critical fire weather conditions after today.
Moisture moving in during the midweek supports elevated PoPs in
the southern mountains Tuesday afternoon, but this moisture may
not be enough for precipitation to reach the ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

High pressure will remain over Nevada at the start of the long term
period. Concurrently, a plume of moisture will start streaming up
from the south but anticyclonic flow around the high will keep this
moisture over Arizona and New Mexico. Midweek onwards, an upper
level trough will start working on the high, forcing it to move to
the Four Corners region. Both the GFS and EC ensembles are
suggesting this movement will allow the moisture to our south to
finally reach our CWA. The NBM is picking up on this moisture
bringing 40% chances for some isolated to scattered convection from
the central mountains down to the San Juans. Coverage increases
Thursday as a weak shortwave moves through the area and works on
this increasing moisture. Chances increase to 60% for the San Juans
and 20 to 40% for the remaining higher terrain across the CWA. PWAT
anomalies also increase Thursday through Saturday. Some timing
differences can be found between the EC and GFS with the onset of
this increase but the general gist remains the same. By Friday
afternoon, anomalies will reach around 150% of normal which, if
true, will be welcome relief after our prolonged dry spell. A second
wave is progged to move through on Saturday and should work on the
moisture bringing another round of showers and storms to the region.
As far as high temps are concerned, they`ll start increasing day by
day maxing out on Thursday before dropping some on Friday thanks to
the increased cloud cover precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The main aviation concern today will be the smoke from
wildfires. KRIL has dropped to between 1 to 2 miles in smoke
for much of the morning and the question is whether some
relatively light afternoon gusty winds form and if they`ll
disperse some of the smoke. The HRRR is suggesting this smoke
will persist through 05Z but going to be optimistic and bring
smoke up to 5SM from 22Z onwards. Elsewhere, some smoke will
be seen at KASE and KEGE but do not expected any restrictions to
visibility. Wind flow will become more northerly later tonight
so smoke will start to drift southward, moving more into
Montrose and adjacent areas. Outside of the smoke, VFR
conditions will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A dry airmass and afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph is
creating critical fire weather conditions near the Four Corners
region and other localized areas. As such, a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect until 9 PM tonight. After today the region
will remain dry through at least the mid week, but wind gusts
are expected to calm, leading to only localized critical fire
weather conditions. Weak moisture advection begins during the
mid to late week, which will raise minimum relative humidity
values, but will also increase the potential for dry
thunderstorms.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ207.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT