375
FXUS65 KGJT 091008
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
308 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions prevail this week.

- The potential for mountain snow and valley rain increases
  late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

High pressure remains in place leading to unseasonably warm and
dry conditions through Monday (and beyond).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

High pressure remains in control of the weather through at
least mid week with dry conditions and warm, above normal
temperatures dominating the forecast. Some passing high clouds
are likely from time to time though as some high level moisture
moves through the flow. Temperatures during much of the coming
week will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal for early to mid
November. Models are in fairly good agreement through Thursday
morning, so currently anticipating above normal temperatures
through at least Thursday.

Changes are in store for the latter half of the week as
moisture from a deep low pressure trough entering the west coast
pushes into the region. There is, however, quite a bit of model
spread between the GFS and ECMWF deterministic and ensemble
solutions. The GFS is the more progressive solution, bringing
this trough into the Great Basin with precipitation beginning
Thursday evening while the ECMWF brings precipitation into the
region Friday morning. The EC is beginning to catch up to the
GFS, which is probably why the blended solution leans more
towards the progressive GFS. Regardless, Friday into the weekend
looks to be trending towards cooler and unsettled with
widespread precipitation and potential for our first widespread
mountain snowfall event. Temperatures do remain quite mild as
this moisture source is a Pacific Atmospheric River moisture
moving inland across SoCal and up through the Desert Southwest,
so snow ratios tend to be lower and snow levels higher, which
has implications on forecasted snowfall amounts. The EC is
further south with the storm track and wants to cut off a low by
Saturday south of the Four Corners, which would focus the
precipitation more across the south. The GFS instead keeps the
trough a bit further north and more open, resulting in more
widespread precipitation. So given the uncertainty with track
and timing, lower confidence at this time in potential impacts
with this system. It does appear though that the mountains will
see some snowfall, but still plenty of time for those details to
be ironed out as models hopefully come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
occasional afternoon gust around 20 knots.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT