359
FXUS63 KGID 111630
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1130 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Forecast remains dry today through Thursday. For today, a cold
  front moving through early this morning drops highs back into
  the 50s-60s, still above normal. Wednesday highs are back near
  70, with overall light winds...a nice day, though more clouds
  will be moving through.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns return to
  mainly the western half of the area Thursday afternoon. Temps
  climb back into the mid-70s, with relative humidity values in
  the low-mid 20s, and gusty southerly winds.

- Storm system still on track to cross the Central Plains
  Friday-Saturday. There will be chances for rain and snow
  across the area, along with strong NW winds Fri night-Sat
  with gusts of 40-50 MPH possible. Rain switches to snow Fri
  night-Sat, and even light amounts could cause issues with the
  expected winds.

- Following highs dropping into the 40s-50s on Saturday, dry
  conditions return for Sun-Mon, with highs by Monday back in
  the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Currently...

Dry conditions remain solidly in place across the region early
this morning...and similar to the past few mornings, outside
of a bit of cirrus, skies are clear. Looking aloft, upper air
and satellite data are showing zonal flow...set up between what
remains of the ridging that helped bring the warmth on Monday,
and a shortwave disturbance roughly along/north of the MN/Canada
border. Elsewhere across the CONUS, easy to pick out areas of
low pressure are moving off the East Coast and toward the Srn CA
coast. At the surface, a cold front continues to work its way
south through the Central Plains, pushed by that MN/Can upper
level disturbance. The switch to more northerly winds will be
through the entire forecast area soon...and can`t rule out some
gusts closer to 20 MPH at times. Temps at 3AM are sitting in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Today through Thursday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast through
Thursday...which remains dry. Models are in good agreement
showing little change in the zonal upper level pattern
today/tonight...and as we get into Wednesday, an upper level low
pressure system looks to cross the Southern Plains, but not
expected to have any impact on the forecast area. More notable
changes to the upper level pattern occur on Thur-Thur night,
turning more south-southwesterly with time, as a stronger storm
system moves in from the West Coast and into the Rockies/Desert
SW.

At the surface for today, high pressure currently centered over
central Canada will gradually shift east-southeast with time
today, looking to end up over the Great Lakes by this evening.
This will bring a gradual transition from northerly winds this
morning to more east-northeasterly around midday, then
southeasterly by this evening. Through mid-late morning today,
can`t rule out some gusts near 20 MPH continuing in the wake of
this frontal passage...but with time speeds are expected to
diminish, with speeds through the afternoon around 10-15 MPH.
Though a cooler airmass builds in behind this front, still
looking at highs being above normal today (normal is upper
40s-mid 50s)...with mid-50s forecast in the north, to mid- 60s
in the south. Relative humidities this afternoon are forecast to
drop into the mid-upper 20 percent range...but the lighter
winds keeps fire weather concerns down.

For Wednesday, between the highs and winds...it`s looking to be
a nice day, even though there should be more in the way of
clouds around. The cooldown for today is a short-lived one, with
models showing warmer air building back into the area for mid-
week...and forecast highs are right around 70 area-wide. The
surface pattern is expected to be on the weaker side, winds
through at least the first half of the day will be on the
lighter/variable side for many locations, then turning more
east-northeasterly...speeds for many may only top out around 10
MPH.

During the overnight hours on Wednesday, surface troughing is
expected to develop over the High Plains...with winds turning
more southerly by sunrise Thursday. Then through the daytime
hours on Thursday, in response to the approaching stronger upper
level system to the west, that low pressure over the High Plains
is expected to deepen, tightening up the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This brings more solidly southerly
winds and the potential for a breezy afternoon...especially
across the western half of the area. Sustained afternoon winds
of 15-25 MPH will be possible, as will gusts of 25-30 MPH. Even
with the more southerly low level flow, models not showing a
notable influx of moisture...and dewpoints through the day are
largely in the 30s. Expecting another bump up in temperatures,
with highs into the mid 70s. Fire weather concerns return for
the afternoon, with relative humidity values falling into the
20s. Near-critical to critical conditions will be possible for
areas mainly along/west of HWY 281...where the best combo of
gusty winds/low RH reside.

Friday and Saturday...

Increased rain/snow chances and stronger winds all look to be
the main impact from the incoming storm system...but there are
still a lot of the finer details yet to be ironed out in the
next couple of days. Overall there hasn`t been any significant
changes to the forecast.

By the time 12Z Friday rolls around, models aren`t in too bad of
agreement in the upper levels, showing the main area of low
pressure making its way out of the Four Corners along the CO/NM
border. Compared to 24 and 48 hours ago, models have started
trending a little closer together looking at the track of the
low between 12Z Fri-00Z Sat...GFS isn`t as fast/far out ahead of
others, the ECMWF isn`t as far south...but there is still room
for some improvement (and plenty of time to get there). Looking
broadly, the general track runs from far SW KS/OK/TX border area
to NE-East central KS during the day on Friday...with the
center of the upper low running over the SE corner of our
forecast area, or just outside of it. The evening hours (00-06Z
Sat) takes it into roughly the NE/IA/MO border area...then
taking a more northward turn overnight into southern MN by 12Z
Sat. The system continues on that more NNE track during the day
on Saturday thorugh the western Great Lakes and into Canada.

As far as precipitation chances go...during the daytime hours on
Friday, there is still the potential for our forecast area to be
impacted greatly by the accompanying dry slot of this system,
leaving chances spotty at best. Forecast continues to be free of
any thunder mention...models have been pretty consistent
showing the main axis of instability staying off to our east
(and especially southeast). Current forecast precip chances
increase into the 40-60 percent range during the afternoon
hours, mainly focused across our Neb. counties. Friday evening
into Saturday, our precipitation chances are tied to mid-upper
level frontogenetical forcing on the backside of the departing
system...but there are still some notable QPF differences
between models themselves and even run-to-run. Some show areas
lucky to pick up 0.1" or so (of total liquid)...others have
shown the potential for a heavier axis developing with 0.25" or
more. While those differences in amounts continue...agreement is
better that any higher totals would be focused mainly over the
northern half of the forecast area. There will also be colder
air building in as the system departs...bringing a transition
from rain over to snow. Big question lies with timing...how
quickly that colder air builds in vs the coverage/intensity of
precipitation potentially tapering off as it does so.
Deterministic and ensemble model data continue to show low
probabilities of notable snow amounts...with probabilities of 1"
or more anywhere from 10 to 50 percent for areas along/north of
I-80 (the probabilities of 40-50 are mainly along/north of HWY
92).

Still looking at windy conditions with this system, especially
on the backside Friday evening through Saturday. During the
day on Friday, expecting gusty southerly winds ahead of the main
surface low, which will also be crossing over/near the southern
portions of the forecast area. Its timing will drive just how
strong winds are...as it moves into/through the area there will
be a relative lull in speeds, transitioning from southerly to
northerly winds. Southerly winds gusting over 30 MPH are
certaintly a possibility, especially over the eastern half of
the area, but just how much of the area sees the strongest gusts
is still uncertain. During the evening/overnight hours on
Friday and into Saturday, like the upper system, the surface low
takes more of a northerly turn, keeping the stronger NW winds
around longer than they would have if the system had continued
pushing more east/getting further away from the area sooner. The
tightened pressure gradient and colder air advection/mixing
potential into stronger winds aloft is expected to bring
sustained NW winds of 25-35 MPH, spreading west to east Friday
evening, lingering area-wide through much of the day on
Saturday...with gusts of 40-50 MPH possible.

So even if snow amounts end up being on the overall light side
Friday night-Saturday...these expected winds would make for
hazardous conditions. Those with any travel plans should
continue to stay up to date with the latest as we get closer.

Temperatures on Friday remain tricky with this system moving in
during the day...forecast still calling for mid-60s west to
low-70s east. Models continue to not show a notable push of
moisture into the area even with these southerly
winds...dewpoints remain in the 30s. Will have to keep an eye on
potential at least near-critical fire weather conditions. On
Saturday, precipitation chances end from west-east...and though
cooler with highs back in the 40s-50s, dewpoints are also
forecast to drop into the teens...so depending on how much
precipitation actually falls, fire weather concerns may be
present on Saturday as well (winds are a slam dunk).

Sunday and on...

Forecast is currently dry for Saturday night on through Monday
in the wake of this latest system. High temperatures also
looking to rebound...with 50s on Sunday and 60s-70s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (90%) in VFR conditions through the TAF period.
After a mostly clear day today, high-level clouds increase this
evening into tonight.

Winds gradually decrease this afternoon and turn to the east-
southeast by this evening. Winds on Wednesday will remain light
and variable.

 &&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels