799
FXUS63 KGID 191119
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
619 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s today will increase to the upper 90s to low
  100s for Monday (to as high as 103 degrees). Around 50-70% of
  the area will be expected to reach the triple digits.

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10AM to 10PM Monday as
  Heat Index values may climb to as high as 105-110 degrees.

- A cold front passing through early Tuesday will pull highs
  back down to the 80s to low 90s for the period Wednesday
  through Friday.

- Though a few storms may come in from the west overnight
  Tuesday (10-30% chances), the next widespread precipitation
  chances come mainly on Wednesday (40-70% chances) and Thursday
  (30-50% chances).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026


Synopsis...

An upper level ridge (higher pressure) continues to remain centered
over the intermountain west region with troughing (lower pressure)
building across the eastern U.S. Here in the center of the U.S.
(more so influenced from the higher pressure center just west of the
area), conditions continue to remain fairly dry with steadily
increasing temperatures through Monday.


Today...

Highs this afternoon will spread the 90s with heat index values in
the upper 90s to low 100s. Winds today out of the southeast will
mainly blow between 5 to 15 MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20
MPH. Skies will continue to remain mostly clear with no chance for
precipitation.


Monday...

Though a few non-sever storms overnight Sunday could reach into
portions of north central Nebraska, it is unlikely that remnant
showers from these storms will impact more than just a handful of
locations north of I-80 during the early morning hours on Monday
(<20% chances). Though the main concern for Monday will be the heat,
there is still a small concern if any cloud coverage from these
potential morning showers linger into the afternoon, possibly
impacting highs in a few far northern areas. Temperatures for most
of the area, however, will still be likely to reach into the upper
90s to low 100s (to as high as 103 degrees). Around 50-70% of the
area will be expected to reach the triple digits. Given dewpoints in
the mid 60s to low 70s, heat index values across the area should
easily reach up into the 100s with values expected to climb to as
high as 105 to 110 degrees. As result of this heat, a heat advisory
will be in effect from 10AM until 10PM on Monday for the full area.

All of central and south central Nebraska as well as a few far
northern portions of north central Kansas will be under a Major heat
risk classification (level 3 of 4) for monday. This level of heat
suggest that heat related illnesses could be possible for anyone
without the proper use of hydration or an effective source for
cooling. In addition, due to the combination of light southerly winds
and mostly clear skies, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature values (WBGT) are
forecast to reach Extreme levels (level 4 of 4) as natural colling
sources should be limited (heat relief from wind or clouds).


Tuesday...

A cold front expected to pass overnight Monday into Tuesday morning
will bring some heat relief to the area, though highs will still
probably remain in the 90s for at least Tuesday. Though much of the
day will be expected to remain dry, a handful of storms could still
blow in from the west during the evening to overnight hours (10-30%
chance across mainly north and western portions of the area).
Otherwise, winds flipping to the north/northeast behind the front,
may gust as high as 20-25 MPH across the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 90s with heat index
values expected to top out around 100 degrees. Two main areas of
isolated-scattered shower/thunderstorm development are possible this
afternoon-evening, though an isolated storm can`t be ruled out
across most of the area. The first is mainly along and north of
Highway 92 in Nebraska, with a second area possible for areas along
and south of a Stockton-Hebron line. Whatever showers/storms do form
look to be fairly brief and weak given poor shear. These summertime
pop up storms should wane around sunset as stability increases. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with light winds.

Sunday...

Ridging aloft over the eastern Rockies/western Plains continues on
Sunday. At the surface another hot and humid day is expected across
the area as temperatures climb into the 90s. Similar to
today/Saturday, heat index values reach the upper 90s to around 100
degrees during the afternoon/early evening. Will need to keep an eye
on the potential for a few scattered, non-severe storms to move into
far northern portions of the area Sunday night, though confidence is
too low to include in the forecast at this time.

Monday...

Monday remain on track to be the hottest day of the forecast period
as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. It`s possible that
temperatures could be a few degrees too warm if dewpoints are slow
to mix out. Regardless of the exact high, dewpoints combined with
hot temperatures will result in heat index values in the 100s on
Monday. A Heat advisory will likely be needed for at least a portion
of the forecast area given the support for fairly widespread
low-mid 100s heat index values. A cold front pushes into the
area late Monday evening-night. An isolated storm is possible
along this front as it moves into northern portions of the
forecast area, but any storm will likely be on the downtrend as
it enters the forecast area given the time of arrival.

Tuesday Onwards...

Aloft a trough diving into the Midwest begins to transition the
upper level flow into a northwesterly flow regime on Tuesday.
While slightly cooler than on Monday, temperatures on Tuesday
remain hot as they climb into the 90s (warmest KS). Temperatures
sink towards their climatological normals Wednesday onwards
with highs in the 80s to low 90s. More widespread precipitation
chances (20-50%) arrive on Wednesday and continue through the
end of the forecast period. Details on these chances will become
clearer as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A narrow band of fog has managed to meander into KGRI this
morning. Visibility as low as 1/4 to 1 mile will be possible
through 13z. Visibilities are expected to soon improve as this
fog lifts between 12-14z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are once
again forecast to retain through the rest of the day. A few
cumulus in the afternoon should not become broken, though cloud
bases should not drop below 4,000ft. Winds, soon to organize
out of the south today will mainly blow between 5-10kts though a
few occasional gusts as high as 15-20kts may be possible across
the late morning to afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump