601
FXUS63 KGID 021137
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smokey skies continue much of today, but should see some
  improvement by evening/tonight.

- Seasonably cool conditions this weekend with periodic chances
  for isolated to scattered, mainly non-severe, thunderstorms.
  Best chances Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Warmer temperatures, and higher humidity, return by mid week.
  Upper 90s to low 100s heat indices will be possible Wed-Fri.

- While not a completely dry forecast, rain chances next week
  appear limited thanks to building high pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Abundant smoke (from wildfires in Canada as well as the SW US)
continues across the area with several sites reporting reduced
visibilities in the 4-7sm range. Expect these conditions to
continue through midday before some improvement arrives this
afternoon/evening, and esp. tonight.

Forecast area remains in a similar pattern, overall, to 24 hours
ago with zonal to NW upper flow in place between troughing over
the Great Lakes/Northeast and ridging over the Desert SW. At the
surface, strong high pressure continues over the Great Lakes but
is starting to shift further E and allow for deeper return flow
and lee troughing along the High Plains. This promotes daily
development of afternoon convection along the High Plains, that
then tries to move E/SE during the overnight. This will continue
to be our general pattern for a couple more days.

A severe MCS over the Nebraska Panhandle and northeast CO made
it to areas along/W of Hwy 283 early this morning, but has since
fallen apart upon moving into a much more stable environment of
MUCAPEs only a few hundred J/kg. However, the MCS spawned
another MCV - similar to yesterday - that will continue to drift
E/SE across the remainder of the forecast area this morning.
Models have a tendency to struggle with these mesoscale features,
as evident by even hi-res CAMs such as the HRRR yesterday
failing to capture pockets of 1/3-1/2" rainfall. While a repeat
scenario of yesterday to today is not a guarantee...felt
compelled to expand eastward, and linger longer, some low-end
20-30% chances to account for potential re-invigoration of iso-
widely scattered showers and/or weak storms on the E side of
the MCV. Latest timing estimates take it E of Hwy 81 by around
midday. The rest of the day should see decreasing clouds and
continued seasonably pleasant temps and humidity.

As mentioned above, the same general pattern remains in place
through the short-term, so expect another round of shower/storm
chances tonight into Sun AM. While the initial aftn/eve
convection may decay once again as it moves into the local
forecast area late tonight, some of the hi-res models (and even
some global guidance like the EC), suggest a broader, N-S band,
of elevated convection could develop late Sat night and continue
into the daytime hours on Sunday. It`s still tough to pin down
exact timing, placement, coverage - but there are SOME signals
of consensus favoring areas along/E of Hwy 281 moreso than areas
to the W. Probably safe to assume another MCV will develop
tonight - and this could certainly augment and/or enhance the
rain chances on Sunday. Not much concern for severe weather,
though, as most favorable combination of instability and shear
remain further W. The likely greater prevalence of
showers/storms Sun AM and associated cloud cover should keep
temps cool one more day in the 70s to near 80F.

Main story for the upcoming work week will be the return of
summerlike heat and humidity, particularly for the second half
of the work week. Mon-Tue will already be sensibly warmer and
more humid with highs in the 80s and dew points well into the
60s (even locally lower 70s), before upper ridging strengthens
over the SW CONUS and primary westerlies shift back to the
northern CONUS for second half of the week. Within this
transition we`ll see a period where increasing instability
overlaps with seasonably strong deep layer shear (prior to the
weakening upper flow associated with the ridge), most favorably
in the MON PM time frame. However, this will also coincide with
increasingly diffuse/nebulous forcing and general height rises,
so storm coverage and overall severe risk is uncertain and
potentially highly conditional. For now, SPC has placed a good
chunk of our Nebraska forecast area under a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for Monday.

Rain chances trend lower (though not completely zero) for the
second half of the week as widespread 90s and humid 70s dew
points return. Latest blend gives heat indices in the upper 90s
to lower 100s, but could envision these trending higher (esp.
central/eastern zones) due to localized enhanced
evapotranspiration ("corn sweat") and higher dew points that the
coarser global models don`t handle the best. Extended models
suggest the next cold front and decent chance for rain arriving
sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: Mainly VFR expected today, though bouts of high-end MVFR
(5sm) VSBYs can`t be ruled out through early afternoon due to
continued smoke. Smoke should lessen later this afternoon. A
remnant MCV will be crossing the terminals over the next few
hours and could spark an iso shower/weak storm at about any
time. Given recent radar trends and questions on coverage even
if something were to develop, have kept out of the TAFs for now.
Winds will be ESE-SE 7-11kt this morning, increasing to 9-14kt
for the afternoon. Confidence: Medium.

Tonight: Mainly VFR. Expect another round of showers/storms to
try and move in from the W overnight. Some hi-res guidance also
suggests potential for new development overhead, as well. Thus,
have gone with PROB30 groups at both EAR and GRI beginning
04-06Z. Not expecting severe weather with this activity. Winds
will continue out of the SE around 8-11kt. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies