529
FXUS63 KGID 222351
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
651 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder arrive late
  tonight into Friday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- There is a Marginal to Slight risk for severe weather Friday
  evening into Friday night over southwestern portions of the
  area. But it is also very possible that storms miss the area
  entirely.

- Chances for rain and thunderstorms continue into the
  holiday weekend. A few strong to marginally severe storms
  cannot be ruled out Saturday night, but otherwise the severe
  threat appears to be rather low into the early part of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Shallow, diurnally driven cumulus has developed across much of
the area this afternoon. Some isolated showers have developed in
northeast Kansas, but any further development is unlikely this
afternoon. Later tonight into Friday morning, models continue to
advertise that a weak shortwave will bring scattered showers
and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms to the area. Due to limited
instability, severe weather is not expected. Areas north of
I-80 are most favored, but even in these areas, there is only a
30-50% chance for 0.10" or more through noon tomorrow (per 12Z
HREF).

Some activity may persist into the afternoon, especially over
eastern parts of the area, and continued stratus will keep
temperatures on the cooler side for much of the area. That said,
the latest HRRR does clear out our southwest by mid
afternoon...allowing for a push into the mid 70s. Friday
afternoon and early evening, supercells are expected to
initiate over western Nebraska/Kansas, propagating southeastward
with time. How far east these storms make it is somewhat
uncertain, and will be dependent on clearing/destabilization/etc.
Most CAMs keep severe convection just to our southwest, but
there is still a low chance (5-15%) that this bleeds into the
southwest third to half of the area after 8pm. Later overnight,
more elevated storms may develop over northern Kansas. IF these
develop MUCAPE/shear would be favorable for these to be strong
to marginally severe. But, again, most of the CAMs keep the bulk
of the convection to our south.

On Saturday, most areas will start off dry in the morning, with
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon and evening as an upper trough approaches from the
west. Southern areas may have enough elevated instability for
some marginally severe storms, but most of the rest of the area
will only see light to moderate rain with some "garden variety"
thunderstorms.

Lower PoPs linger on Sunday and Monday as this trough slowly
moves through, although it looks like there will be plenty of
dry breaks each day. High temperatures may struggle to reach 60
degrees in many areas...especially on Monday. As such,
instability is lackluster and any thunderstorms that do develop
should be non-severe.

Global models show an upper low cutting over over the northern
Plains, which will keep some lower-end PoPs in the forecast
through the middle of next week. In total, above-normal
precipitation totals are favored through the next 7 days...but
ensembles favor a return to above normal temperature and below
normal temperatures as we head into June.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tonight: VFR expected overnight, but with increasing mid to
high clouds, esp. after midnight. Still appears some scattered
light showers could develop after 08Z, towards daybreak. Winds
will gradually veer from NNE to ESE/SE overnight, with speeds
generally 5-10kt. Confidence: High.

Friday: Scattered light showers may linger into the AM, but
confidence for going prevailing drops after after the initial
wave moves out around 13-14Z. Additional elevated light showers
look to be possible just about anytime for the rest of the
daytime given mid level warm air advection. However, confidence
on any specific time frame for greatest chances remains low, so
only PROB30 groups included, for now. CIGs should gradually
lower through the morning, and may even dip to MVFR at some
point around midday into the afternoon. Winds will be mainly
SErly 10-15kt, with some gusts around 20kt for the afternoon.
Confidence: Wind - high, CIGs - low to medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies