536
FXUS63 KGID 200629
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1229 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though the most potent round of snow has now past and gone,
  one additional and more minor slash of winter Friday
  evening/night will aim for locations mainly near and south of
  I-80 (a Trace to 1" of snow). Lighter winds should limit any
  blowing snow potential (5- 10MPH)

- Beyond any lingering snow shower Saturday morning, the next
  chance of precipitation (15-20% rain chance) will not arise
  until the Wednesday night / Thursday time frame.

- Temperatures across the weekend will mainly range the mid 20s
  to mid 40s (cooler across areas with >1" of snowdepth). After
  Monday, highs will mainly range the 50s to low 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Only a last few flurries are left to fall tonight in a few of our
far northeastern areas (relative to the Tri-Cities) with the period
of accumulating snow over for the night. Temperatures are scheduled
to reach down into the single digits and teens tonight. A handful of
locations northwest of the Tri-Cities may even see temperatures
creep closer down to the low single digits by sunrise. Though
northwest winds will gradually lighten through the night, gusts
occasionally as high as 15-20MPH will still send negative single
digit wind chills across areas mainly north of I-80 tonight. These
will likely be the coldest temperatures and wind chill values for
the area until at least Monday night.

Though the most intense snow showers this week are done and through,
one smaller and less intense round of snow is expected to take shape
late Friday afternoon to night across north central Kansas and some
of south central Nebraska (best snow accumulating potential along
and south of I-80). Another shortwave trough budging out of the
southern Rockies Friday will lead to some surface pressure falls
that will in turn stir up this weak system. Some light and more
broad ranging bands of snow will likely shoot up and out of the
greater Colorado region between 4PM and 10PM. Across this time
period, the light snow showers will spread from southwest to
northeast across the southwestern 2/3rds of the area (mainly
locations near, south and west of the Tri-Cities).

In total, these snow showers will be expected to remain short-lived
with accumulations, more likely than not, coming to an end across
the overnight to early Saturday morning hours (clearing from west to
east). Travel impacts should be more on the minor side of things
this go round as lighter northwest winds (only 5-10 MPH) will keep
blowing snow to a minimum. Slick road conditions, especially across
any uncleared/untreated roadways, may still impact parts of the
Friday evening and Saturday morning commutes.

Snow amounts are not expected to far exceed 1" in more than a few
isolated spots in north central Kansas or across a few far
southwestern Nebraska areas. The vast majority of locations that see
snow should mainly only see accumulations of a trace up to a few
tenths of an inch. Otherwise, the rest of the weekend is expected to
be dry with highs in the mid 20s to mid 40s and lows in the single
digits and teens. The coldest temperatures will fall across areas
that maintain snowdepth greater than 1". Winds should primarily stay
out of the north, gusting no greater than 15-20 MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

--  FORECAST CHANGES WORTH MENTIONING AND/OR ANY BIG PICTURE
  COMMENTS:

- If anything, high temps for Friday-Saturday have trended down
  slightly (likely a "good move" given the presence of fresh
  snow...especially north). Conversely, highs for Tues-Thurs
  have trended up a few degrees with most areas now aimed into
  the 60s most days. That being said, latest "raw" model
  data/guidance suggests we might be aiming a bit TOO warm
  (meaning we could end up more in the 50s than 60s...but still
  a decent warm-up nonetheless).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Thurs. Feb.26):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 PM (including a deep-
  dive into the ongoing winter storm):
Although snow got off to  a very slow start today due to dry
air (especially within affected counties along/east of Hwy 281),
snow has FINALLY started and/or intensified over the last few
hours within pretty much all of our Nebraska counties
along/north of Highway 6. The most intense, north- south
oriented band (roughly 15-20 miles wide) is currently
approaching the Highway 281 corridor from the west. Kudos to
preceding shifts for including I-80 counties in a Winter Weather
Advisory, as if anything this heavier band has "snuck" a touch
farther south than expected, and even counties just south of the
official Advisory (along Highway 6) could pick up a "quick
inch" along he southern fringes of this main band.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data clearly reveal a compact
shortwave trough tracking eastward through the heart of our
forecast area, with mid-level convergence/saturation maximized
within our Nebraska counties along/especially north of Highway
6...and much more limited saturation/lift targeting counties
along/especially south of the KS border, where little more than
flurries to a very light dusting is anticipated.

At the surface, we are well-northwest of the main low pressure
center (currently around 994 millibars over north central MO),
but a fairly tight pressure gradient between this low and a high
pressure center (around 1026 millibars) centered near the
eastern MT/Canadian border is still promoting modesly-strong
(albeit VERY GRADUALLY weakening) north-northwest winds across
our CWA...with sustained speeds currently 15-25 MPH/gusts mainly
25-35 MPH.

Temperature-wise, talk about a major change! Actual daytime
highs will end up between 17-27 degrees across most of our
forecast area (CWA)...some 30-40 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Adding in the winds, current wind chill values are mostly single
digits above zero.

As for winter weather "headlines":
Earlier today "upgraded" our row of Nebraska Highway 92 counties
to the Winter Storm Warning earlier issued for our far northern
counties (bringing our total number of warning counties up to
7). These counties are most favored to pick up a fairly
widespread 4-7". Meanwhile, a Winter Weather Advisory continues
for all of our counties along Interstate 80, where 1-3" will be
common. Our row of counties along Highway 6 (just south of the
Advisory) could arguably be placed under a "cheaper" Advisory to
account for the southern extent of the aforementioned heavier
band, but with total accumulation expected to top out no more
than 1-2" (at most), have opted to handle with a Special Weather
Statement (SPS) instead.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (snow gradually ends):
As already occurring within our far western CWA, snowfall
intensity will VERY GRADUALLY decrease from west-to-east this
evening as the mid-upper level forcing departs eastward.
However, at least light snow will continue for several more
hours within affected counties west of Highway 281, while
counties along/east of Highway 281 deal with at least 1-2 hours
of moderate-to-briefly heavy snow as the aforementioned, north-
south oriented "main band" pivots through the area.

Fortunately, winds will continue to SLOWLY decrease as the
evening wears on, and by 9 PM sustained speeds should be down to
more so 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-25 MPH...and only further decreasing
as the night goes on and the pressure gradient eases.

By Midnight, the vast majority of our CWA should either be
snow-free (especially west of Hwy 281) or at least down to non-
accumulating flurries, although our extreme northeast corner
(Polk County area) could see the "last gasp" of snow last
slightly beyond midnight. Even so, both the Warning/Advisory is
scheduled to expire at Midnight, and would be surprised if any
time-extensions are needed. As skies clear out overnight and
wind decrease, temps could take a pretty good tumble over the
deepest fresh snow, and although our current low temp forecast
is aimed from low-single digits (above zero) in our northwest to
the teens in our southeast...would not be surprised if some
spots dipped a bit colder.

Very late tonight into early Friday AM, wind chills will likely
drop to as cold as around -10 in our far northwest (especially
Valley/Sherman counties area), but this is still "safely" above
Advisory criteria of -20.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Overall, this will be a good "cleanup" day, with surface high
pressure providing much lighter winds (mainly 5-10
MPH)...starting more northerly and turning more easterly in the
afternoon. Skies start the day mostly sunny, but
another/trailing disturbance approaching from the southwest will
bring in increasing clouds during the afternoon, and MAYBE some
light snow/flurries into our far west/southwest CWA by late
afternoon. High temps carry some uncertainty as we may not be
accounting enough for the cooling effects of fresh snow cover,
but all areas were nudged down at least slightly from
previous...currently aiming for mid-upper 20s north to mid-
upper 30s south.


- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT (next round of lighter snow):
Although it will not be nearly as significant as the ongoing
storm, the aforementioned weaker upper wave will track
primarily across KS over the course of the evening-overnight.
Models still vary quite a bit on the "finer details", but a
broad shield of fairly light snow is expected to fall across
counties mainly along/especially SOUTH of Interstate 80...with
accumulations mainly at-or-below 1". Given the minimal amounts
and expected light winds, this system would really have to
"trend up" over the next 24 hours to be worthy of a Winter
Weather Advisory, but will at least continue to highlight in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Low temps mainly 10-20
degrees...held up by expected cloud cover. However, if clouds
end up being more minimal in our north...temps could really
tumble below current forecast values.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
At least for now, we have a dry forecast from sunrise Saturday
onward, although there are "hints" that some pesky flurries
could linger into the first part of the day from the departing
system. Otherwise though, the weekend looks "seasonably chilly"
but dry, with the main feature being a dry cold frontal passage
late Sat night-Sunday that will bring some breezy north winds.
High temps both days are generally aimed 30s north to 40s south,
but again we could be aiming a bit too warm depending on
lingering snow cover effects.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Broad mid-upper level ridging will overspread the Plains. In
response, the low levels will undergo warm air advection as
winds turn southerly Monday and more southwesterly Tuesday.
There is high confidence in a big warm-up from Monday into
Tuesday...but just how much so is yet to be soon as we MIGHT be
aiming a bit too warm for especially Tuesday. For now though, we
are officially calling for mainly 40s Monday and mainly mid-
upper 60s Tuesday.


- WEDNESDAY-THURDAY:
A dry forecast continues, although the latest ECMWF/GFS at least
"hint" that a weak disturbance or two will pass through from
northwest-to-southeast, possibly sparking some limited rain
chances in later forecasts. Like Tuesday, it`s quite possible
that we`ve gone a bit TOO warm on expected highs, but for now
calling for mainly low-mid 60s both days.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered MVFR ceilings are expected to decrease in coverage
overnight with VFR conditions by 12z. Winds will mostly be out
of the northwest through 18z then will transition towards the
northeast by 00z. Winds will decrease overnight to around 5
knots by 12z and will remain light through the rest of the
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Schuldt