756
FXUS63 KGID 051131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers continue throughout the day, most
  likely for areas southwest of the Tri-Cities. Rain chances on
  Wednesday are for areas mainly along/southwest of a
  Lexington-Beloit line.

- Rain accumulations range from a few hundredths or less in the northeast,
  to around 0.5" across southwestern portions of the area.

- Widespread cloud coverage keeps highs in the 50s today and Wednesday.

- Highs climb back above normal Thursday onwards, with scattered
  chances for precipitation (most likely this weekend).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing across the area this morning,
though accumulations in any one shower is light (a few
hundredths). Aloft a deepening upper level trough resides over
the plains with an upper level low located over the southwest.
The scattered showers are expected to become more widespread
throughout the morning, with most areas seeing at least some
light rain during the morning hours. There could be a relative
lull in rain during the afternoon hours, though southwestern
portions of the area may see a more persistent rain. As the
deepening trough begins to merge with the upper level low, it
pushes another round of more widespread rain through the area
during the evening hours. It`s worth reiterating that any
accumulations from today`s rain will be light, with most areas
seeing 0.10" or less, lowest north of I-80 and east of Highway
281. Widespread cloud coverage confines highs to the 50s today.

Stratiform rain gradually shifts south and west overnight, bringing
a steadier rain to southwest portions of the area. Rain chances
during the day on Wednesday look to be limited to areas mainly along
and southwest of a line from Lexington to Beloit which gradually
decrease and shift southwest out of the area throughout the day
(ending by the evening). Overall rain accumulations through
Wednesday evening range from a few hundredths or less in the
northeast to around 0.50" in the southwest. Widespread cloud
coverage results in another seasonably cool day with highs in the
50s.

Clearing skies under a seasonably cold airmass may bring a
chance for frost to the area Thursday morning. There is
uncertainty on if and how widespread frost would be due to
increasing westerly winds around sunrise. This will continue to
be watched closely for the potential for a frost/freeze
headline. Temperatures climb back towards normal Thursday
afternoon onwards as northwesterly flow builds over the area.
Embedded disturbances within this northwesterly flow bring
scattered chances for precipitation Thursday night onwards,
though any accumulation from this looks to be light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions have continued into the afternoon hours
today...with a few more clouds working their way in from the
west. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data show west-
northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains. This flow
is set up on the southern edge of a larger area of low pressure
spinning over Ontario, with WSWward extending troughing sinking
south. Accompanying this system is a surface cold front...which
has made its way through all but southern portions of the
forecast area here at mid-afternoon. Behind the front, NNE winds
have been gusty...gusting around 25-30 MPH at times. Hasn`t
been any surprises with temperatures...highs will end up topping
out well in the 70s across the northern half, with some low-mid
80s across the south.

This evening through Wednesday...

As that better upper level lift continues to work into the area,
can`t rule out some scattered showers and storms developing late
this afternoon, and moreso into this evening...mainly in
proximity of that frontal boundary. Not totally out of the
question a few storms could be on the stronger side...but
instability is lacking, as dewpoints are only in the 30s-low
40s, SPC meso page showing only around 500 j/kg of MUCAPE over
southern portions of the area. Better instability and potential
for severe storms still looking to remain focused off to our ESE
where dewpoints are at least in the 50s. Day 1 Marginal Risk
area remains outside of the forecast area. Through the rest of
the overnight hours...continued lift keeps precipitation
potential lingering around the area...but there is still
uncertainty between models with the overall coverage. Hard to
have a high degree of confidence...some models show coverage
being pretty sparse, others have more widespread/scattered
activity, esp. closer to/after midnight.

Confidence in how precipitation chances evolve through the day
on Tuesday remains low...and am concerned that forecast PoPs
are too high/broad in nature. The daytime hours (or at least a
portion of) may end up being somewhat of an overall
lull...sitting between the initial push of upper level lift
today/tonight and ahead of another push that is expected to move
in more into Tuesday night-Wednesday. The better chances during
the day remain focused across the SWrn half of the forecast
area...and there are some notable differences between models
with the northeastward extent of precip chances...some models
have very little for areas especially NE of the Tri-Cities. That
also remains the case as we get into Tue night- Wednesday as
that next main upper wave moves through...but there has been
better model agreement (at least up to now) that NNE areas would
have lower chances...and the forecast is dry for the day on Wed
for those locations. As far as amounts go...for the NErn half
of the forecast area (basically the Tri-Cities and NNE), current
probabilities of 0.25 in or more is near/below 30%. Those
probabilities increase the further SW you go, closer to 80% in
our far SW corner. Though a small area in our SW corner,
GFS/ECMWF ensem probabilities of 0.5 or more being around 40-50
percent.

Along with the increased precipitation chances continuing
through mid-week...this pattern and our area sitting on the
northern side of the sfc front will keep things cool. Expecting
plenty of cloud cover, with winds remaining generally northerly,
but on the lighter side generally around 10-15 MPH. Normal high
temps for this time of year are in the mid 60s to near
70...forecast highs for both Tuesday and Wednesday remain in the
50s.

Thursday on through the weekend...

As this latest upper level trough axis pushes east of the area
Wednesday night, the forecast dries out, continuing into the day
on Thursday. Late Wed night-early Thu AM...cloud cover is
expected to diminish and winds taper off...and another round of
frost is not out of the question as lows drop into the low-mid
30s. Winds transition to more westerly with time by Thu
AM...some uncertainty with whether they lighten enough to allow
for frost. Westerly winds continue into the daytime hours on
Thursday, and with more sun and a moderating airmass...highs
climb back into the low 70s.

The upper level pattern on Thursday turns back to the northwest
in the wake of Wednesday`s system...with the next chance for
any precipitation coming Thu night-Fri AM as an overall weak
shortwave disturbance slides through the area. Chances remain
low (20 percent) at this point as models show precipitation
being fairly spotty in nature. Not much change in the pattern
until we get into the upcoming weekend, as another larger area
of low pressure setting up over central Canada drives broad
ridging into much of the CONUS. Potential for additional
embedded shortwave disturbances to move through the area brings
precipitation chances back for the weekend...best chances are
currently focused on Sat night-Sun AM.

As far as temperatures go...expecting a gradual climb through
the end of the week, with mid 70s-near 80 expected for
Saturday. The upper level disturbance/increased precip chances
look to bring a cooler Sunday, with forecast highs back in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected at KGRI through TAF period, VFR
conditions favored at KEAR through TAF period. Stratus around
5000-8000ft will persist through the day. The lowest ceilings
will occur 00-04z, which could briefly bring MVFR ceilings to
KEAR, but confidence is too low (<15%) to include in TAF at this
time. Otherwise scattered showers are possible this morning, and
during the evening hours, ending around midnight. Have indicated
this potential with PROB30 groups rather than prevailing as rain
will likely be fairly scattered. Northerly winds of 5-10kts are
expected throughout the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis