109
FXUS63 KGID 121724
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will continue pushing through and eventually
  out of far northern portions of the area early this
  morning...with the daytime hours today expected to be dry for
  most locations.

- A strong surface cold front will be gradually pushing SE
  through the area during the day today...ushering in a switch
  from gusty south winds to gusty NW winds. Late this afternoon-
  early evening, can`t rule out some isolated-scattered showers
  along this front in far SE areas.

- Highs today are expected to climb into the 80s...with those
  highs likely occurring earlier in the afternoon for NW
  portions of the area. Drier dewpoints behind the front, along
  with the gusty winds, looks to bring near-critical fire
  weather conditions to portions of the area mainly west of HWY
  183.

- Expecting around a 20 degree drop in highs for Monday compared
  to today...with Monday`s highs in the mid 60s. Highs on
  Tuesday range from the 50s north to near 70 south, but will be
  dependent on precipitation chance moving into the area.

- Periodic precipitation chances remain in the forecast thorugh
  the rest of the week. Highs rebound back into the 70s for Wed-
  Thu, with another cold front dropping temps back into the 60s
  for late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Currently...

The forecast area remains under southwesterly flow aloft early
this morning. Upper air and satellite data show the main ridge
axis extending from TX northeastward into the Great Lakes
region...sandwiched between areas of low pressure over both the
far NE and far SE portions of the East Coast and a trough axis
draped south from western Canada through the western CONUS.
Scattered showers continue across far northern portions of the
forecast area up into SD...driven by a subtle embedded shortwave
disturbance and a hefty 50+ kt low level jet extending through
the heart of the region. SPC meso-analysis page showing a few
hundred j/kg of instability available...so can`t rule out a few
rumbles of thunder through the early morning hours. At the
surface...not a lot of change, with the forecast area sitting
between low pressure/troughing over the central/srn High Plains
and high pressure draped along the MO/MS River areas up int
eastern Canada. The tighter pressure gradient and at least some
aid from that strong low-level jet corridor is keeping SSE winds
gusty early this morning...gusts have mainly been between 25-35
MPH, but there has been an occasional gust closer to 40 MPH. A
batch of thicker cloud cover continues to gradually slide east
with time...but it along with the southerly winds have kept
temps up...sitting in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Today and tonight...

Main story through this short term period continues to lie with
the passage of strong surface cold front. Models remain in
pretty good agreement showing the main upper level trough axis
continuing to slide east with time...with a more organized
closed low developing near the MT/ND/Canada border. As the
system pushes east...it will drive the accompanying cold front
SE through the region...and the overall timing between models
hasn`t changed significantly. During the mid-late morning hours,
the front will move into far western portions of the forecast
area...pushing through the Tri-Cities area during the early
afternoon, ending up over the extreme SE corner of the forecast
area by 00Z this evening.

Expect continued gusty south-southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...diminishing speeds as the front passes...then gusty NW
winds building in behind the front. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH
will be possible on both sides of the front. This
evening/overnight...as the front pushes further south, winds
look to turn more northeasterly, gradually tapering off to
closer to 10-15 MPH with time.

Anytime there is a frontal passage during the daytime hours it
makes for a tricky temperature forecast. For central and SErn
portions of the forecast area...spending more of the day ahead
of the front...expecting highs to climb into the mid-upper 80s
(wouldn`t be too shocked to see a few readings near 90 the
further SE you go). For NNW portions of the area, highs are
closer to right around 80- low 80s...with those highs occurring
earlier in the afternoon with steady/slowing falling temps
through the mid-late afternoon hours. Along with the switch to
gusty NW winds, this front will be ushering in notably drier
air...with dewpoints in the 30s-40s creeping in through the
afternoon. That combo of low dewpoints/RH and gusty winds looks
to result in some near-critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon, mainly for areas west of HWY 183.

As far as precipitation chances go...the forecast for the
daytime hours remains dry...though confidence in that late
this afternoon is not overly high. Models still differ on just
how much/if any precip develops along that frontal boundary
around 00Z in our far SE corner...currently have 20 percent
chances starting at 00Z, but not out of the question at least
some isolated activity develops a bit earlier. The better
chances for any thunder looks to focus along/south of the
front...so the forecast currently only has showers
mentioned...but those trends will be something for the day crew
to assess and adjust if needed. Later into the evening/overnight
hours...models to varying degrees show the potential for a bit
more scattered activity to develop across the area...so have 20
percent chances of showers lingering all night. Chances are low
with some models keeping most locations dry.

Monday and Tuesday...

No significant changes made to the forecast to start the new
work week...with the main story being the notable cooldown.
Models showing continued southwesterly flow in the upper levels
through this period...set up between high pressure getting
better established over the far Srn Plains, while another strong
low pressure system digs south along the West Coast. For most
of the forecast area...Monday remains largely dry, with precip
chances currently confined to far SSE areas. Winds look to turn
more easterly, as we sit between high pressure building in from
the NW and low pressure set up over portions of western
TX...speeds generally topping out around 15 MPH. The cooler
airmass behind the front is expected to bring highs for Monday
topping out mainly in the mid 60s, so around 20 deg cooler than
highs today.

Monday night into Tuesday...models showing the potential for a
more notable upper level shortwave disturbance to slide NE
through the forecast area, bringing better precip chances.
Forecast has 40-50 percent chances spreading across the entire
area between 06-18Z Tuesday...but models do vary with what the
coverage of activity ends up being, so confidence is not overly
high at this point with those PoPs. Highs on Tuesday range from
the mid 50s in the north (which have those precip chances
lingering through more of the daytime hours) to low 70s in the
south.

Wednesday and on...

For the latter half of the week...models aren`t in too bad of
agreement in the big picture, but there are plenty of details to
be ironed out. Upper level flow across the area remains mainly
southwesterly...with the potential for periodic disturbances to
bring more precipitation chances. For Wednesday and
Thursday...that area of high pressure over TX builds further
north through the Plains as the larger scale low pressure system
pushes in from the West Coast, allowing for some warmer air to
build back in. Highs Wed-Thu are forecast to reach back well
into the 70s. Not a lot of precip chances in the forecast for
Wednesday, with things picking back up as we get into Thu-Thu
night, as that western CONUS system finally makes its way
onto/through the Plains. Along with the better precip chances,
this system will push another cold front through the
region...dropping highs for Fri-Sun back more into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (95% chance) in VFR conditions through the
period.

A cold front will be moving through GRI/EAR this afternoon,
turning winds to the northwest. Gusts in the 25-30kt range are
expected at times.

There is a low chance (10-20%) for a few rain showers late
tonight into early Monday morning.

 &&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels