425
FXUS63 KGID 052020
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
320 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers with more breaks than not in coverage continue
  this afternoon and tonight. (20-60%) Showers should clear
  between mainly 9PM to 3AM from west to east. A rumble of
  thunder or two can not be completely ruled out, especially for
  areas along and south of the state line.

- Besides a lingering shower or two Friday morning (20-30%), the majority
  of the day should be dry with a 30-50% chance of a evening to
  overnight wave of showers and non-severe storms.

- An Air Quality alert remains in effect for our Nebraska
  counties through noon Friday from a reduction in air quality
  from smoke at the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025


...Near-Term...Tonight


Scattered light showers moving to the northeast cover around half of
our forecast area early this afternoon as observed on radar. It is
not completely out of the question for a few of these showers to
produce a rumble or two of thunder, especially into the evening to
nighttime hours. For the most part, this cluster of showers should
continue to remain on the lighter end of the precipitation spectrum
with likely more breaks than not in coverage.

On satellite, virtually the entire state of Nebraska and most of the
state of Kansas is covered by broken to mainly overcast skies. A few
bubbling storms across western Nebraska and especially Kansas
suggest the potential for an isolated storm or two to be able to
develop this evening to night across a select portion of the area,
primarily locations along and south of the state line (where the
better instability lies). These storms are not expected to become
severe and will likely remained somewhat limited in coverage and
extent. PoPs remain between 20-60% through the night, though it is
more likely to see more breaks in the precipitation than not.

Most showers/storms should begin to completely clear out of the area
between 9PM to 3AM from west to east. A lingering shower or two
could remain behind Friday morning (20-35% chance), though not
likely widespread in coverage. Southeast winds of 5-15 MPH this
afternoon will become light to variable overnight, eventually picking
back up from the north Friday morning.

A reduction in the air quality may be observed this afternoon
through parts of Friday as Canadian based wildfire smoke descends
down and into the area. An Air Quality alert remains in effect for
our Nebraska counties through noon Friday.


...Short-Term...Friday and Saturday...


The biggest forecast change over the last 24-hours regards the PoPs
for Friday. An eastward exiting system in the morning could bring
some lingering morning showers (20-30%) with likely very limited
coverage. Much of the day, however, is expected to remain dry with a
second potential wave passing in the evening to overnight hours (30-
50%) as a shortwave passes overhead. This second wave is not
expected to bring too much precipitation with it (<0.15") as most
showers/storms will be likely in their decaying phase. Some thunder
may be possible, but severe weather is not expected.

Winds should remain on the weaker side of things, becoming northward
oriented Friday and blowing no stronger than 10-15 MPH. Overcast
skies will limit the warming potential to a degree as highs stick
around the low to mid 70s, a few degrees warmer from Today. Clearing
skies Saturday afternoon with weak winds out of the southwest (10-
15MPH), will allow highs to return to the low to mid 80s. Southwest
flow in the upper levels will gradually become northeast oriented as
a western U.S. trough becomes overpowered by a digging Canadian
based upper level low on Saturday. Though precipitation chances
remains very limited overnight Saturday (<20%), an isolated shower
Sunday morning could pop out from this disturbance.


...Long-Term...Sunday and Beyond...


A cold frontal passage may knock highs down a degree or two for
SUN/MON (mid 70s to low 80s), with a gentle warmup following into
midweek (mid to upper 80s by Wednesday) as a ridging pattern is
favored to take over the mid and upper levels. Winds out of the
north SUN/MON between 10-15 MPH may occasionally gust as high as 20-25
MPH. Winds turning toward the south on TUE, may become a little more
active by WED/THUR (15-20 MPH) with gusts up to 25 MPH. Precipitation
chances remain off the board through this period until Wednesday
evening/night (25-35% chances).


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered pockets of off-and-on light rain showers continue on
over the next 6-12 hours. A rumble or two of thunder can`t be
completely ruled out. The overcast cloud bases starting out
near 6-8kft will slowly sink this afternoon and overnight into
MVFR (80-90% chance) and potentially IFR (40-50% chance)
categories. VFR is likely (>70% chances) to hold out until 20z
for KEAR and 23z for KGRI. Lower end MVFR bases (<2,000ft)
should begin near 0z for KEAR and near 04z for KGRI. IFR bases
have a 50% chance of being met between 06z-14z at KEAR and a 40%
chance of being met between 09-14z at KGRI.

Precipitation chances decreasing through the night will be
accompanied by light variable winds, eventually settling out of
the north by Friday morning. This afternoon winds remain below
15kts out of the southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump