754
FXUS63 KGID 231108
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
608 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Currently ongoing scattered showers and weak storms will
  continue to slide south with time, with dry conditions
  expected to build in area-wide later this morning.

- After several days in the 90s, today marks the start of cooler
  temps, with highs in the mid 70s-mid 80s. Highs Sunday on
  through the new week are mainly in the low-mid 70s, with some
  days having areas in the 60s...but those will be driven by how
  precipitation chances pan out.

- Winds through the 7-day overall are on the lighter side,
  generally peaking around 10-15 MPH. Winds today are
  northerly...turning more east-southeasterly Sun-Mon...then
  more southerly starting on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Currently...

Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing the forecast
area sitting under west-northwesterly flow early this
morning...set up between a large area of low pressure sliding
east further into Ontario and high pressure still anchored over
the Desert SW. Shortwave energy rotating around the southern
edge of the low is continuing to push the accompanying surface
cold front south through the region...and is also helping drive
a cluster of mainly elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms
south through our southern areas. SPC Mesoanalysis page showing
a narrow swath of roughly 1000- 1500 j/kg of CAPE also sinking
south with this activity...but deeper layer shear is on the
weaker side...so while a few storms may be on the stronger side
at times, not expecting a notable uptick in strength through the
early morning hours. At the surface, the main cold front lies
roughly from west-central KS NEward near the eastern NE/KS
border. Winds behind the front across the area have switched to
become northerly...but this front didn`t have an accompanying
big push of wind, so speeds are at most 10 MPH...a few spots are
calm.

The rest of today...

Models remain in good agreement showing the upper level pattern
turning more northwesterly today...as the main upper low
continues pushing east, the accompanying troughing digs further
south across the eastern CONUS...and while the Desert SW high
pressure system doesn`t shift much, the ridge axis stretches
further north over the western CONUS. The ongoing showers/storms
over our southern areas continues pushing SSE...and have precip
chances gradually diminishing during the morning
hours...leaving the rest of the day dry. A few models hint at
the possibility of a few peak-heating type of
sprinkles/showers...not enough confidence at this point to
insert a mention in the forecast. At the surface, high pressure
continues to settle south into the area...though centered well
to our north near the ND/Canada border. This will keep winds
north-northeasterly and on the lighter side...with speeds
topping out around 10-15 MPH. After several days in the 90s,
today marks the start of a cooling trend...with a cooler airmass
dropping highs for today into the mid 70s north to mid 80s
south. Normal for this time of year is mid 80s north to upper
80s south. Along with being cooler, this is a drier
airmass...and after days with dewpoints well into the 60s-70s,
dewpoints today are expected to fall into the 50s.

Late tonight into Sunday...

Mainly after midnight tonight and continuing into the daytime
hours on Sunday, the first of a number of upper level
shortwave disturbances embedded in the main northwesterly flow
brings precipitation chances back to the forecast area. There
are still some differences between models with the overall
coverage of even light, spotty precipitation...but agreement is
better that the best chances fall across the WSWrn half of the
forecast area...where chances in the 30-50 percent range reside.
High pressure/ridging remains the primary feature at the
surface, transitioning winds to more east-southeasterly, but
still light around 10 MPH. Forecast highs drop a bit more, and
are currently in the low-mid 70s...but am concerned that may be
too high for areas that could see clouds/precip linger into most
of the daytime hours.

Sunday night on through the end of the week...

Main story for the new work week is the continued chances for
precipitation and cooler temperatures. Models show the forecast
area remaining under varying degrees of west-northwesterly
flow aloft...with periodic embedded shortwave disturbances
sliding through the region. Hard to have a ton of confidence in
the finer timing/location details at this point...but the
overall better chances currently lie Sunday night into Monday
and again mid-week. As far as high temperatures go...for the
most part highs are generally in the low-mid 70s. There are
spots with highs in the 60s, but those will be dependent on the
passing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. The
forecast remains free of any precipitation mention until we get
to the final few hours...though models are in good agreement
that the best focus for precip looks to be SSW of the terminal
areas, some are showing isolated-scattered activity further
north...so decided to insert a PROB30 group. Wind throughout
this period will be northerly...speeds during the daytime hours
peak around 10-15 MPH...diminishing this evening/overnight down
closer to 5-10 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP