980
FXUS63 KGID 050442
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1042 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...6Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains a very small chance for some light freezing
  drizzle Wednesday morning (~10%) for areas primarily east of
  highway 281. Little to no ice accumulation is expected.

- High temperatures will warm back into the 30s Wednesday
  afternoon and then meander around normal through through the
  upcoming weekend. Overnight lows are expected to generally be
  in the teens and 20s.

- No major winter systems on the horizon. We could see some
  light snow pass just north of the area Friday night into
  Saturday morning with around a (20-40%) chance of a little
  light snow accumulation returning early next week.
  Temperatures are also anticipated to fall back below normal
  starting next Tuesday (Feb 11th).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Cloudy skies and below normal temperatures persisted across the
region this afternoon. Winds have remained fairly steady out of
the northeast, keeping the wind chills in the single digits for
most of the day.

Expect a warm front to approach from the west tomorrow
afternoon, but likely not cross the heart of the local area
until well after peak heating, keeping afternoon temperatures
mostly in the lower to mid 30s. Ahead of this front, expect a
small chance for some light freezing drizzle beginning late
tonight and possibly continuing into the morning hours
Wednesday. Latest model data continues to push the better
chances further east, and given the temp/dewpoint spread in
model soundings near the surface, contemplated removing the
mention of freezing drizzle completely from the local forecast,
but did keep a small mention (~10%) in the forecast while
trimming the coverage area for the sake of consistency.

As the warm front then tracks across the area from west to east
later in the day, expect a shift in winds as well as a return to
at least partial sunshine for the late afternoon hours. Weak
ridging aloft is then expected through the end of the work week,
with afternoon temperatures rebounding into the 40s for both
Thursday and Friday.

This ridge will then be shifted east by a quick passing upper
level disturbance and surface cold front Friday night, which
will likely bring some light snowfall to the northern periphery
of the local area overnight Friday through Saturday morning,
along with cooler temperatures to start the weekend. This
cooldown will not be as significant as early next week however,
when the next system will bring a better chance for some light
snowfall to most of the local area next Monday and Tuesday,
along with another blast of Arctic air by next Tuesday. While
the most bitterly cold temperatures will remain across the
northern plains, several consecutive days of well below normal
temperatures look plausible given model data and continued CPC
guidance leaning towards below normal temperatures in the 6-10
day outlooks and possibly beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A persisting MVFR low level cloud deck (~2,500 ft) continues to
hang overtop of the terminals. This stratus is showing no signs
of budging. The MVFR ceilings are expected to lower some around
14-20z to as low as 1,000-1,500 ft (maybe even threatening IFR
conditions 20-30%). These clouds will eventually clear out
between 22-0z from west to east Wednesday evening.

Light freezing drizzle to flurries can`t be completely ruled
out near the KGRI terminal between 13 and 18z though confidence
remains on the lower end (<15%). A mention in the TAF is not
warranted any at this time.

Light winds (8-14kts) starting out of the east will veer south
early Wednesday and eventually towards the southwest later
Wednesday night. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is mentioned at
the end of the forecast period starting sometime after 3z. Early
estimates suggest a magnitude of at least 40kt from the west.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump