322
FXUS63 KGID 192337
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances (15-50%) move into the area tonight, increasing
  from south to north over time.

- Best rain chances (60-90) on Sunday favor eastern/southeastern portions
  of the area, with west/northwest portions of the area
  potentially missing out on rain entirely. Rain ends from west
  to east Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Clear skies and light winds will allow for the development of widespread
  frost across much of the area Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Active pattern continues next week, with highs in the 60s/70s
  and chances for precipitation each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

This afternoon through Sunday

A high pressure system resides over the area, helping skies to
remain sunny and winds to remain light. Temperatures this afternoon
are in the mid 50s to low 60s, making for a very nice spring
day. An upper level low currently sits over New Mexico resulting
in southwesterly flow over the area. Moisture advection will
increase this evening/tonight as the low begins to enter the Lee
of the Rockies. Precipitation chances (15-50%) arrive
tonight/early Sunday morning as this moisture moves into the
area, and the surface low develops along a stationary front on
the TX/OK border. The best precipitation chances overnight
(30-50%) will be confined to southern portions of the area,
closest to the developing low/surface front, gradually moving
north over time.

The upper level low will take on a negative tilt Sunday morning as
it begins to rejoin the jetstream. The surface low will begin to
move northeast, into eastern KS, and eventually into northern
MO/southern IA. Precipitation chances (15-30% W/NW, 60-90% E/SE)
increase during the mid-late morning hours as the precipitation
shield of the low moves into the area. There remains a fair amount
of uncertainty on how large the precipitation shield will be, as
well as the exact track, resulting in a fairly broad precipitation
forecast. The best chances for rain will be across
eastern/southeastern portions of the area, closest to the surface
low. The lowest chances will be across far western/northern
portions, which could miss out on rain entirely. Central portions of
the area have higher uncertainty on rainfall totals, where
accumulations could range from a few hundredths to a couple of
tenths. The 12z HREF highlights the overall uncertainty relatively
well. It shows a less than 10% chance for 0.05" or more along a
Cambridge to North Loup line. The 10-90 percentile (Low/High end
Scenario) across central portions of the area ranges from a couple
of hundredths to around a quarter of an inch. Far E/SE portions
(Osborne to York) have a 30-60% 0.50" or more of rain.

Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 50s across eastern
portions of the area, closest to the low, to the low 60s across far
western portions of the area where cloud coverage is less robust.
The strongest winds on Sunday will be closest to the low, gusting 25-
30mph. Rain will come to an end Sunday evening as the low moves into
the Midwest. Skies will quickly clear behind the departing low, with
winds becoming light. The light winds and clear skies will be
favorable for temperatures to fall to around freezing, and bring a
chance for widespread frost to the area. A frost advisory will
likely be needed across much of the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday morning, but will defer to later shifts to narrow down
the extent of frost potential.

Monday...

After a cold start to the day with frost, temperatures will quickly
climb above normal as southwesterly flow develops over the area
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs on Monday will range
from the low 70s (east) to the low 80s (southwest). Winds will be
breezy at times, gusting 20-25mph. Afternoon relative humidity
values will fall below 20% along/west of Highway 183, combined with
breezy winds it will result in near-critical fire weather
conditions. A cold front moves into the area Monday night, bringing
a low chance (25-50%) for showers to northern portions of the area.

Tuesday onwards...

An active pattern continues through the rest of the forecast period,
with a number of shortwave troughs impacting the area, bringing
chances for precipitation each day. The details on these systems
will come into better agreement as we get into next week. Above
normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds will switch from the southeast to the northeast around 15z
with winds becoming more northerly by 21z. Low ceilings are
expected for GRI by 18z and will continue through most of the
afternoon. Low ceilings will also be possible for EAR but
confidence is lower. Rain showers are possible for GRI beginning
around 18z with lower confidence for EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Schuldt