879
FXUS63 KGID 011749
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of smoke and poor air quality will back into the area
  today on steady easterly breezes. As a result, an Air Quality
  Alert is in effect for our Nebraska zones through early eve.

- Main story for the weekend will be seasonably cool
  temperatures, lower humidity, and periodic shower and
  thunderstorm chances.

- Not everyone will see moisture from activity that tends to
  favor the overnight into morning hours, and severe weather
  potential is fairly low.

- Next week will trend warmer and drier as the week progresses,
  and yes, the humidity will return, as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

August is getting off to a quiet, though somewhat smokey,
start...thanks to strong high pressure over northern MN
funneling Canadian smoke into much of the Midwest and Plains.
This will continue through much of the steady on steady ESE-SE
breezes, so an Air Quality Alert has been issued by Nebraska
state agencies for areas along and E of a line from Ord to
Franklin through early evening.

Showers and thunderstorms that developed over the High Plains
last night are weakening on our western doorstep, as expected.
May still see some iso to widely scattered showers/weak storms
in these western areas this morning, but the vast majority of
the area will remain dry today. Otherwise, expect seasonably
cool and less-humid conditions to make for a very pleasant day
by early August standards. Expect a repeat performance tonight
where storms that develop over the High Plains during peak
heating try to move E overnight. Once again, probably won`t have
a lot of success except for perhaps far W/NW zones. Going to go
ahead and issue an "Open the Windows Night" (unofficially, of
course) as the drier airmass should allow for pleasant overnight
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s!

Expect more of the same for the weekend - lingering isolated
shower/storm chances in the AM, drier and seasonably pleasant
midday into the afternoon, and then a new round of scattered
showers/storms that likely develop W of the forecast area during
the late afternoon, then attempt to shift E during the evening
and overnight. Activity may be slightly more successful at
holding together into our area Saturday night thanks to somewhat
higher instability - but still appears severe weather potential
is pretty low (though not zero, either). Gusty winds and heavy
downpours will be the primary concerns. Sunday could end up be
somewhat cooler than Saturday thanks to lingering cloud cover
and perhaps earlier/closer redevelopment Sunday afternoon.
However, confidence on details this far out is still quite low
as the overall evolution will likely depend on what happens Sat.

Next week will trend warmer and considerably more humid,
especially by midweek, thanks to increasing heights from dome of
high pressure over NM. In fact, latest blend pushes highs into
the 90s for majority of the forecast area for Wed and Thu, and
of course the "corn sweat" will return and aid in dew points in
the upper 60s and 70s. Models hint at one or two chances for
thunderstorms mid to late next week, but confidence on these are
low at this time - so chances are capped at only 20-30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR visibilities have stuck around longer than usual today due
to some concentrated areas of smoke and haze. There may be a
break of MVFR conditions between 0-6z, though confidence is
lower than normal. It is expected for the smoke/haze impacts to
stick around through parts of the night and Saturday, though it
is not entirely clear how concentrated this smoke will stay or
trend. Clouds will remain broken and overcast through a
majority of the day with bases near 10,000ft. There may be less
coverage of clouds (few to scattered) between 0-4z.

Precipitation chances remain too low to include in anything
other than a Prob30 group for now. A few storms overnight will
have the best potential to be near or around the KEAR/KGRI
terminals between 8-14z. The overall coverage of storms is
expected to remain low. Winds will stay between 10-15kts during
the daytime and below 10kts during the night and out of the
southeast.




&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Stump