838
FXUS63 KGID 041145
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing storm chances this afternoon across far western
  areas, spreading east to include the Highway 281 corridor by
  late afternoon/early evening. In addition to a general threat
  for cloud to ground lightning, a few storms could be on the
  strong to marginally severe side, with wind gusts in excess of
  60 mph along with heavy rainfall both possible.

- A few lingering storms will be possible Saturday...although
  most areas will remain dry. A better chance for storms returns
  with the next disturbance late Saturday night (after
  midnight).

- Additional storm chances will continue across the local area
  through much of next week. At this time, the better (more
  widespread) chances appear to be with a series of upper level
  disturbances Sunday, Tuesday and again Thursday night/Friday.
  Temperatures should remain seasonably warm through the
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A few storms can be seen firing up across the high plains early
this morning, ahead of the next upper level disturbance,
currently moving across the central Rockies. This disturbance
should reach south central Nebraska by late afternoon/early
evening, helping to initiate shower and thunderstorms across the
local area. Given the timing of this disturbance, expect the
potential for impacts on outdoor festivities this evening, with
local visitors/residents encouraged to pay attention to
developing storms later today. While the main threat will be the
potential for strong to marginally severe wind gusts, any
thunderstorm could present a risk for outdoor activities.

Latest CAMS continue to indicate storm initialization across
western areas (western Dawson county) during the early
afternoon hours, reaching the highway 281 corridor around
22-00Z. With PW values around 1.25-1.5 inches...in addition to
the lightning and strong wind gust threat...heavy rain could
also be realized, and much of the local area is in a marginal
risk for flooding later today.

Storms should then eventually exit east late tonight...with
mainly dry weather filling in on Saturday. Thereafter the upper
level pattern remains fairly messy...with multiple upper level
disturbances forecast to potentially impact the central plains.
While the week will not be continuously unsettled, multiple
upper level disturbances will cross the local area over the
course of the week, helping to maintain a fairly active weather
pattern across the plains as indicated in ensembles. Given the
active pattern and lack of a strong upper level ridge building
aloft, temperatures should remain fairly seasonable throughout
the period, a few degrees either side of climo (upper 80s to
near 90) each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Mostly VFR conditions through the afternoon hours, with MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS possible with -TSRA this evening.

A few clouds can be seen approaching the local area on satellite
this morning. Expect cloud cover to thicken over the next few
hours, with a mid level cloud deck likely becoming established
at both terminals by 04/18Z. Later in the afternoon, expect an
increasing chance for a VCTS or -TSRA by 04/21-24Z...with MVFR
CIGS eventually becoming established during the early evening
hours as the main line of thunderstorms passes across the
terminals. CIGS should then improve late in the night, becoming
VFR again by 05/06-05/08. Winds will be southerly through the
period, with gusts to 30 KTS possible during the late morning
through afternoon hours...eventually diminishing to near 10 KTS
again during the evening hours (outside of TSRAs).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi