191
FXUS63 KGID 222323
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
523 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures continue over the next several days,
  bringing chances to melt some of the recent snowfall.

- Dry conditions are expected for much of the forecast period,
  with the exception of Tuesday night/Wednesday, where there is
  a 20% chance of a few showers.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions may be
  possible Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Those ready to put winter behind us will appreciate the forecast for
at least the next four or five days. Above seasonal temperatures are
expected this week, helping to melt some of the recent snow.
Seasonal temperatures are in the low 40s for highs and the upper
teens to low 20s for lows. One key thing to highlight before diving
into the forecast discussion is that the area was blanketed with
several inches of fresh, powdery snow over the past week. Visible
satellite imagery shows clear to mostly clear skies this afternoon,
leaving a clear view of the snow across the plains. Models do not
always perform well on temperatures when dealing with fresh snow on
the ground, and there have been some biases shown in how models are
handling this most recent round of snow.

Expected afternoon high temperatures will reach the 30s for many
areas across the Hastings CWA. Some areas may be lucky enough to
reach into the 40s. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies for the rest
of the day. Depending on much snow is able to melt, there is a low
possibility that some patchy fog could develop overnight. I wouldn`t
completely rule it out, but confidence in this happening, especially
with westerly, downslope winds, is low at this time. Overnight low
temperatures will dip into the 20s.

Sunday and Monday, we will find ourselves under northwest flow.
Warmer temperatures are expected to continue, with highs in the 40s
on Sunday. Monday highs are a little iffy at the moment. The past
few shifts have lowered temperatures from what models have, due to
continued snowpack across the area. Should the snow melt quicker
than anticipated over the next few days, temperatures may get a
little warmer than currently forecasted. However, with several
inches of snow on the ground, felt that lowering temps slightly
would be the best course of action.

Tuesday and Wednesday, above seasonal temperatures continue, with
highs potentially reaching the 50s and 60s. Lows will be in the 30s.
A broad upper trough moves across the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday, bringing our only chance (10-20%) for precipitation in
the next several days. With temperatures as warm as they are, p-type
would be primarily rain.

Snowpack will inhibit fire weather concerns over the next couple of
days. Heading into Tuesday and beyond, RH values will be creeping
into the 20-30% range. Winds may be a bit breezy a couple of days.
With the current trend, some elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions may be present in the afternoon across limited portions
of the area Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Steady westerly winds near 10 KTS will continue through the
period as northwesterly flow continues aloft and a fairly weak
pressure gradient remains near the surface. Some models are
trying to develop some patchy fog as a result of snowmelt this
afternoon, but with the (unfavorable) westerly component of the
wind, do no think that any fog will impact either terminal.
Increasing high clouds are expected overnight and through the
daytime hours Sunday...as clouds associated with the next weak
upper level disturbance work their way across the local
area...with a sct-bkn cloud deck near 25KFT anticipated.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Rossi